--- title: "The Cut Case case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "The Cut Case ($416.57) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 11 items with odds, observed 74.73% over 36 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/the-cut-case rendered: 2026-11-11T13:52Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [The Cut Case](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/the-cut-case) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · The Cut Case A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/the-cut-case?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/the-cut-case?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/the-cut-case) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/the-cut-case?window=all) Price · $416.57 · 641 gems Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $374.91 from 11 items Observed RTP, 30d · 74.73% · 36 openings, odds method Variance · 0.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 20.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 70.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 12 openings · below min 30 days · 36 openings · below min since tracking started · 36 openings · below min 39.5% 93.8% 148.0% **Small sample.** 36 openings and 7.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/the-cut-case?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/the-cut-case?window=7d) | 12 | 93.88% ±53.5 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/the-cut-case) | 36 | 74.73% ±30.9 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/the-cut-case?window=all) | 36 | 74.73% ±30.9 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 36 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Karambit \| Ultraviolet (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-ultraviolet-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $1,268 1,951 gems | 16.9% | 1 | 1.8 | 0.56× | | [★ Falchion Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $1,128 1,735 gems | 15.0% | 1 | 1.8 | 0.56× | | [★ Stiletto Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 10.0% | $910 1,400 gems | 24.3% | 3 | 3.6 | 0.83× | | [★ Classic Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) | 10.0% | $708 1,090 gems | 18.9% | 3 | 3.6 | 0.83× | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Night (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-night-factory-new) | 10.0% | $311 479 gems | 8.3% | 6 | 3.6 | 1.67× | | [★ Talon Knife \| Blue Steel (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-blue-steel-well-worn) | 10.0% | $221 340 gems | 5.9% | 4 | 3.6 | 1.11× | | [★ Flip Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 10.0% | $165 254 gems | 4.4% | 3 | 3.6 | 0.83× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new) | 10.0% | $95.89 148 gems | 2.6% | 1 | 3.6 | 0.28× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Bright Water (Battle-Scarred) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-bright-water-battle-scarred) | 10.0% | $62.32 95.88 gems | 1.7% | 4 | 3.6 | 1.11× | | [★ Paracord Knife \| Urban Masked (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-urban-masked-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $42.08 64.74 gems | 1.1% | 2 | 3.6 | 0.56× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-boreal-forest-field-tested) | 10.0% | $34.70 53.39 gems | 0.9% | 8 | 3.6 | 2.22× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Karambit | Ultraviolet (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-ultraviolet-factory-new) Hidden $417 641 gems $1,268 1,951 gems 3.04x 2026-11-06 08:36 UTC [★ Falchion Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $417 641 gems $1,128 1,735 gems 2.71x 2026-11-03 16:05 UTC [★ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $417 641 gems $910 1,400 gems 2.18x 2026-11-03 16:06 UTC [★ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $417 641 gems $910 1,400 gems 2.18x 2026-11-03 16:06 UTC [★ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $417 641 gems $910 1,400 gems 2.18x 2026-11-03 16:05 UTC [★ Classic Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) [clepto holding](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/clepto%20holding) $417 641 gems $708 1,090 gems 1.70x 2026-11-07 20:17 UTC [★ Classic Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $417 641 gems $708 1,090 gems 1.70x 2026-11-07 20:17 UTC [★ Classic Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) [Frexah](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Frexah) $417 641 gems $708 1,090 gems 1.70x 2026-11-06 08:36 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=the-cut-case) [★ Shadow Daggers | Doppler (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new) Hidden $417 641 gems $95.89 148 gems 0.23x 2026-11-07 20:17 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-boreal-forest-field-tested) Hidden $417 641 gems $34.70 53.39 gems 0.08x 2026-11-07 20:17 UTC [★ Flip Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $417 641 gems $165 254 gems 0.40x 2026-11-07 20:17 UTC [★ Classic Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $417 641 gems $708 1,090 gems 1.70x 2026-11-07 20:17 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-boreal-forest-field-tested) Hidden $417 641 gems $34.70 53.39 gems 0.08x 2026-11-07 20:17 UTC [★ Classic Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) [clepto holding](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/clepto%20holding) $417 641 gems $708 1,090 gems 1.70x 2026-11-07 20:17 UTC [★ Karambit | Ultraviolet (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-ultraviolet-factory-new) Hidden $417 641 gems $1,268 1,951 gems 3.04x 2026-11-06 08:36 UTC [★ Bowie Knife | Night (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-night-factory-new) Hidden $417 641 gems $311 479 gems 0.75x 2026-11-06 08:36 UTC [★ Bowie Knife | Night (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-night-factory-new) Hidden $417 641 gems $311 479 gems 0.75x 2026-11-06 08:36 UTC [★ Bowie Knife | Night (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-night-factory-new) Hidden $417 641 gems $311 479 gems 0.75x 2026-11-06 08:36 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $417 | 90.00% | 11 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed Covert 35.0% knifes 5.0% covert 40.0% #ffd700 10.0% covert knife 10.0% best hit $1,268 (3.04x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt