--- title: "The Don Case case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "The Don Case ($36.03) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.99% from 9 items with odds, observed 82.58% over 1,036 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/the-don-case rendered: 2026-11-11T17:28Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [The Don Case](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/the-don-case) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · The Don Case A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/the-don-case?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/the-don-case?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/the-don-case) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/the-don-case?window=all) Price · $36.03 · 55.43 gems Advertised RTP · 89.99% · EV $32.42 from 9 items Observed RTP, 30d · 82.58% · 1,036 openings, odds method Variance · 9.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 20 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 80.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 97.29% ±57.49 115 openings 7 days · 77.83% ±21.22 844 openings 30 days · 82.58% ±19.15 1,036 openings since tracking started · 82.58% ±19.15 1,036 openings 39.0% 97.2% 155.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/the-don-case?window=24h) | 115 | 97.29% ±57.5 | +0.2σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/the-don-case?window=7d) | 844 | 77.83% ±21.2 | −1.1σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/the-don-case) | 1,036 | 82.58% ±19.2 | −0.8σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/the-don-case?window=all) | 1,036 | 82.58% ±19.2 | −0.8σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,042 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AWP \| The Prince (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $1,602 2,465 gems | 9.9% | 1 | 2.1 | 0.48× | | [AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-factory-new) | 1 in 333 | $1,133 1,743 gems | 10.5% | 3 | 3.1 | 0.96× | | [Desert Eagle \| Blaze (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $439 675 gems | 13.5% | 9 | 10.4 | 0.86× | | [AUG \| Flame Jörmungandr (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-flame-jormungandr-well-worn) | 1 in 67 | $304 468 gems | 14.1% | 16 | 15.6 | 1.02× | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $203 312 gems | 12.5% | 21 | 20.8 | 1.01× | | [M4A4 \| Eye of Horus (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-eye-of-horus-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $131 201 gems | 8.1% | 25 | 20.8 | 1.20× | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Foundation (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-foundation-battle-scarred) | 1 in 33 | $96.20 148 gems | 8.9% | 21 | 31.3 | 0.67× | | [SCAR-20 \| Palm (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-palm-factory-new) | 10.0% | $37.06 57.01 gems | 11.4% | 99 | 104.2 | 0.95× | | [PP-Bizon \| Antique (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-antique-factory-new) | 80.0% | $4.51 6.94 gems | 11.1% | 847 | 833.6 | 1.02× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [AWP | The Prince (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-factory-new) Hidden $36.03 55.43 gems $1,602 2,465 gems 44.47x 2026-11-05 12:12 UTC [AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-factory-new) [s1gma](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/s1gma) $36.03 55.43 gems $1,133 1,743 gems 31.45x 2026-11-11 08:34 UTC [AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-factory-new) Hidden $36.03 55.43 gems $1,133 1,743 gems 31.45x 2026-11-06 18:14 UTC [AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-factory-new) Hidden $36.03 55.43 gems $1,133 1,743 gems 31.45x 2026-11-04 02:55 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=the-don-case) [PP-Bizon | Antique (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-antique-factory-new) Hidden $36.03 55.43 gems $4.51 6.94 gems 0.13x 2026-11-11 16:37 UTC [PP-Bizon | Antique (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-antique-factory-new) Hidden $36.03 55.43 gems $4.51 6.94 gems 0.13x 2026-11-11 16:37 UTC [PP-Bizon | Antique (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-antique-factory-new) [farlopero peek](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/farlopero%20peek) $36.03 55.43 gems $4.51 6.94 gems 0.13x 2026-11-11 16:37 UTC [PP-Bizon | Antique (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-antique-factory-new) Hidden $36.03 55.43 gems $4.51 6.94 gems 0.13x 2026-11-11 12:19 UTC [PP-Bizon | Antique (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-antique-factory-new) Hidden $36.03 55.43 gems $4.51 6.94 gems 0.13x 2026-11-11 12:19 UTC [PP-Bizon | Antique (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-antique-factory-new) Hidden $36.03 55.43 gems $4.51 6.94 gems 0.13x 2026-11-11 12:19 UTC [PP-Bizon | Antique (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-antique-factory-new) Hidden $36.03 55.43 gems $4.51 6.94 gems 0.13x 2026-11-11 12:19 UTC [PP-Bizon | Antique (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-antique-factory-new) Hidden $36.03 55.43 gems $4.51 6.94 gems 0.13x 2026-11-11 12:19 UTC [PP-Bizon | Antique (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-antique-factory-new) [Shadow](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Shadow) $36.03 55.43 gems $4.51 6.94 gems 0.13x 2026-11-11 12:19 UTC [PP-Bizon | Antique (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-antique-factory-new) Hidden $36.03 55.43 gems $4.51 6.94 gems 0.13x 2026-11-11 12:19 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $36.03 | 89.99% | 9 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 2.5% restricted 82.5% red 2.0% extraordinary 3.0% Uncommon 10.0% best hit $1,602 (44.47x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.99 on average: an expected loss of $10.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt