--- title: "Green Machine case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Green Machine ($65.65) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 11 items with odds, observed 70.46% over 2,890 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/the-dreamer rendered: 2026-11-11T18:34Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Green Machine](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/the-dreamer) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Green Machine A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/the-dreamer?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/the-dreamer?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/the-dreamer) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/the-dreamer?window=all) Price · $65.65 · 101 gems Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $59.08 from 11 items Observed RTP, 30d · 70.46% · 2,890 openings, odds method Variance · 51.6× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 100 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 84.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 224 openings · below min 7 days · 71.20% ±27.93 2,539 openings 30 days · 70.46% ±26.18 2,890 openings since tracking started · 70.46% ±26.18 2,890 openings -0.5% 66.0% 132.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/the-dreamer?window=24h) | 224 | 38.05% ±94.0 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/the-dreamer?window=7d) | 2,539 | 71.20% ±27.9 | −1.3σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/the-dreamer) | 2,890 | 70.46% ±26.2 | −1.5σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/the-dreamer?window=all) | 2,890 | 70.46% ±26.2 | −1.5σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,926 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 500 | $10K 15,421 gems | 33.9% | 2 | 5.9 | 0.34× | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Hedge Maze (Field-Tested) gloves · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-hedge-maze-field-tested) | 1 in 125 | $1,616 2,486 gems | 21.9% | 25 | 23.4 | 1.07× | | [AWP \| Containment Breach (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $278 428 gems | 9.4% | 50 | 58.5 | 0.85× | | [Desert Eagle \| Emerald Jörmungandr (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-emerald-jormungandr-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $174 267 gems | 8.8% | 96 | 87.8 | 1.09× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $146 225 gems | 12.4% | 130 | 146.3 | 0.89× | | [★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Jade (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/broken-fang-gloves-jade-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $80.24 123 gems | 6.8% | 152 | 146.3 | 1.04× | | [Dual Berettas \| Cobra Strike (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-cobra-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $35.07 53.96 gems | 3.6% | 180 | 175.6 | 1.03× | | [Glock-18 \| Nuclear Garden (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-nuclear-garden-minimal-wear) | 19.0% | $5.67 8.73 gems | 1.8% | 550 | 555.9 | 0.99× | | [P250 \| See Ya Later (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-see-ya-later-minimal-wear) | 21.0% | $3.37 5.18 gems | 1.2% | 627 | 614.5 | 1.02× | | [MP7 \| Powercore (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-powercore-field-tested) | 28.0% | $0.33 0.51 gems | 0.2% | 811 | 819.3 | 0.99× | | [SCAR-20 \| Powercore (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-powercore-field-tested) | 10.0% | $0.20 0.31 gems | 0.0% | 303 | 292.6 | 1.04× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) [Kotix](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Kotix) $65.65 101 gems $10K 15,421 gems 152.7x 2026-11-08 00:03 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) [izaivars](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/izaivars) $65.65 101 gems $10K 15,421 gems 152.7x 2026-11-07 10:08 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Hedge Maze (Field-Tested) gloves · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-hedge-maze-field-tested) [MpiXelss](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/MpiXelss) $65.65 101 gems $1,616 2,486 gems 24.62x 2026-11-10 08:09 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Hedge Maze (Field-Tested) gloves · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-hedge-maze-field-tested) Hidden $65.65 101 gems $1,616 2,486 gems 24.62x 2026-11-09 17:25 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Hedge Maze (Field-Tested) gloves · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-hedge-maze-field-tested) Hidden $65.65 101 gems $1,616 2,486 gems 24.62x 2026-11-09 02:29 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Hedge Maze (Field-Tested) gloves · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-hedge-maze-field-tested) Hidden $65.65 101 gems $1,616 2,486 gems 24.62x 2026-11-08 19:47 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Hedge Maze (Field-Tested) gloves · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-hedge-maze-field-tested) Hidden $65.65 101 gems $1,616 2,486 gems 24.62x 2026-11-08 11:02 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Hedge Maze (Field-Tested) gloves · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-hedge-maze-field-tested) Hidden $65.65 101 gems $1,616 2,486 gems 24.62x 2026-11-08 01:07 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Hedge Maze (Field-Tested) gloves · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-hedge-maze-field-tested) Hidden $65.65 101 gems $1,616 2,486 gems 24.62x 2026-11-08 00:56 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Hedge Maze (Field-Tested) gloves · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-hedge-maze-field-tested) Hidden $65.65 101 gems $1,616 2,486 gems 24.62x 2026-11-07 21:09 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=the-dreamer) [Desert Eagle | Emerald Jörmungandr (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-emerald-jormungandr-factory-new) Hidden $65.65 101 gems $174 267 gems 2.65x 2026-11-11 18:08 UTC [P250 | See Ya Later (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-see-ya-later-minimal-wear) Hidden $65.65 101 gems $3.37 5.18 gems 0.05x 2026-11-11 18:08 UTC [Glock-18 | Nuclear Garden (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-nuclear-garden-minimal-wear) Hidden $65.65 101 gems $5.67 8.73 gems 0.09x 2026-11-11 18:08 UTC [Glock-18 | Nuclear Garden (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-nuclear-garden-minimal-wear) Hidden $65.65 101 gems $5.67 8.73 gems 0.09x 2026-11-11 18:08 UTC [Dual Berettas | Cobra Strike (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-cobra-strike-factory-new) Hidden $65.65 101 gems $35.07 53.96 gems 0.53x 2026-11-11 18:08 UTC [P250 | See Ya Later (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-see-ya-later-minimal-wear) [mi bombo](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/mi%20bombo) $65.65 101 gems $3.37 5.18 gems 0.05x 2026-11-11 18:08 UTC [Glock-18 | Nuclear Garden (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-nuclear-garden-minimal-wear) Hidden $65.65 101 gems $5.67 8.73 gems 0.09x 2026-11-11 18:07 UTC [Dual Berettas | Cobra Strike (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-cobra-strike-factory-new) Hidden $65.65 101 gems $35.07 53.96 gems 0.53x 2026-11-11 18:07 UTC [MP7 | Powercore (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-powercore-field-tested) [mi bombo](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/mi%20bombo) $65.65 101 gems $0.33 0.51 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 18:07 UTC [P250 | See Ya Later (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-see-ya-later-minimal-wear) Hidden $65.65 101 gems $3.37 5.18 gems 0.05x 2026-11-11 18:07 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $65.65 | 90.00% | 11 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 23.2% epic 0.8% restricted 22.0% Immortal 5.0% extraordinary 5.0% classified 6.0% Mythical 28.0% violet 10.0% best hit $10K (152.7x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt