--- title: "The GOAT case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "The GOAT ($88.60) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 7 items with odds, observed 89.62% over 753 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/the-goat-official rendered: 2026-11-11T23:17Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [The GOAT](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/the-goat-official) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · The GOAT A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/the-goat-official?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/the-goat-official?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/the-goat-official) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/the-goat-official?window=all) Price · $88.60 · 136 gems Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $79.75 from 7 items Observed RTP, 30d · 89.62% · 753 openings, odds method Variance · 15.3× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 33 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 90.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 36 openings · below min 7 days · 90.41% ±30.86 615 openings 30 days · 89.62% ±27.89 753 openings since tracking started · 89.62% ±27.89 753 openings -0.5% 74.5% 149.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/the-goat-official?window=24h) | 36 | 21.28% ±127.6 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/the-goat-official?window=7d) | 615 | 90.41% ±30.9 | +0.0σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/the-goat-official) | 753 | 89.62% ±27.9 | −0.0σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/the-goat-official?window=all) | 753 | 89.62% ±27.9 | −0.0σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 783 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [M4A4 \| Howl (Well-Worn) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $2,325 3,577 gems | 29.2% | 9 | 7.8 | 1.15× | | [★ Karambit \| Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $1,868 2,874 gems | 46.9% | 16 | 15.7 | 1.02× | | [Desert Eagle \| Sunset Storm 壱 (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-sunset-storm-minimal-wear-2) | 1 in 14 | $167 256 gems | 14.6% | 51 | 54.8 | 0.93× | | [AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $52.83 81.27 gems | 3.3% | 32 | 39.1 | 0.82× | | [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Temukau (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-temukau-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $47.39 72.91 gems | 3.0% | 32 | 39.1 | 0.82× | | [AWP \| Duality (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-duality-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $25.16 38.71 gems | 1.6% | 40 | 39.1 | 1.02× | | [Sticker \| Fancy Koi (Foil) sticker · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-fancy-koi-foil) | 75.0% | $1.61 2.48 gems | 1.5% | 603 | 587.3 | 1.03× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [M4A4 | Howl (Well-Worn) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-well-worn) Hidden $88.60 136 gems $2,325 3,577 gems 26.24x 2026-11-08 12:12 UTC [M4A4 | Howl (Well-Worn) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-well-worn) Hidden $88.60 136 gems $2,325 3,577 gems 26.24x 2026-11-07 21:17 UTC [M4A4 | Howl (Well-Worn) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-well-worn) [Live kick/vaultycs](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Live%20kick%2Fvaultycs) $88.60 136 gems $2,325 3,577 gems 26.24x 2026-11-05 19:45 UTC [M4A4 | Howl (Well-Worn) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-well-worn) Hidden $88.60 136 gems $2,325 3,577 gems 26.24x 2026-11-05 02:10 UTC [M4A4 | Howl (Well-Worn) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-well-worn) Hidden $88.60 136 gems $2,325 3,577 gems 26.24x 2026-11-05 01:47 UTC [M4A4 | Howl (Well-Worn) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-well-worn) Hidden $88.60 136 gems $2,325 3,577 gems 26.24x 2026-11-05 01:47 UTC [M4A4 | Howl (Well-Worn) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-well-worn) Hidden $88.60 136 gems $2,325 3,577 gems 26.24x 2026-11-05 00:00 UTC [M4A4 | Howl (Well-Worn) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-well-worn) Hidden $88.60 136 gems $2,325 3,577 gems 26.24x 2026-11-04 17:56 UTC [M4A4 | Howl (Well-Worn) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-well-worn) Hidden $88.60 136 gems $2,325 3,577 gems 26.24x 2026-11-04 15:18 UTC [★ Karambit | Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-factory-new) Hidden $88.60 136 gems $1,868 2,874 gems 21.08x 2026-11-09 22:09 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=the-goat-official) [Sticker | Fancy Koi (Foil) sticker · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-fancy-koi-foil) Hidden $88.60 136 gems $1.61 2.48 gems 0.02x 2026-11-11 20:57 UTC [Sticker | Fancy Koi (Foil) sticker · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-fancy-koi-foil) Hidden $88.60 136 gems $1.61 2.48 gems 0.02x 2026-11-11 20:57 UTC [Sticker | Fancy Koi (Foil) sticker · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-fancy-koi-foil) Hidden $88.60 136 gems $1.61 2.48 gems 0.02x 2026-11-11 20:57 UTC [Sticker | Fancy Koi (Foil) sticker · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-fancy-koi-foil) Hidden $88.60 136 gems $1.61 2.48 gems 0.02x 2026-11-11 20:57 UTC [Sticker | Fancy Koi (Foil) sticker · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-fancy-koi-foil) Hidden $88.60 136 gems $1.61 2.48 gems 0.02x 2026-11-11 20:57 UTC [Sticker | Fancy Koi (Foil) sticker · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-fancy-koi-foil) [Live kick/vaultycs](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Live%20kick%2Fvaultycs) $88.60 136 gems $1.61 2.48 gems 0.02x 2026-11-11 20:57 UTC [Desert Eagle | Sunset Storm 壱 (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-sunset-storm-minimal-wear-2) Hidden $88.60 136 gems $167 256 gems 1.88x 2026-11-11 19:30 UTC [Sticker | Fancy Koi (Foil) sticker · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-fancy-koi-foil) Hidden $88.60 136 gems $1.61 2.48 gems 0.02x 2026-11-11 19:30 UTC [Sticker | Fancy Koi (Foil) sticker · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-fancy-koi-foil) Hidden $88.60 136 gems $1.61 2.48 gems 0.02x 2026-11-11 19:30 UTC [Sticker | Fancy Koi (Foil) sticker · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-fancy-koi-foil) Hidden $88.60 136 gems $1.61 2.48 gems 0.02x 2026-11-11 19:30 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $88.60 | 90.00% | 7 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed contraband 1.0% covert 12.0% restricted 7.0% pink 80.0% best hit $2,325 (26.24x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt