--- title: "The Megladon case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "The Megladon ($28.09) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 9 items with odds, observed 100.68% over 1,147 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/the-megladon rendered: 2026-11-11T20:41Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [The Megladon](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/the-megladon) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · The Megladon A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/the-megladon?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/the-megladon?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/the-megladon) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/the-megladon?window=all) Price · $28.09 · 43.22 gems Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $25.28 from 9 items Observed RTP, 30d · 100.68% · 1,147 openings, odds method Variance · 10.6× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 29 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 90.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 83 openings · below min 7 days · 102.88% ±21.82 856 openings 30 days · 100.68% ±18.85 1,147 openings since tracking started · 100.68% ±18.85 1,147 openings -0.5% 62.5% 125.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/the-megladon?window=24h) | 83 | 23.03% ±70.1 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/the-megladon?window=7d) | 856 | 102.88% ±21.8 | +1.2σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/the-megladon) | 1,147 | 100.68% ±18.9 | +1.1σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/the-megladon?window=all) | 1,147 | 100.68% ±18.9 | +1.1σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,179 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Karambit \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-autotronic-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $780 1,201 gems | 15.4% | 10 | 5.9 | 1.70× | | [★ Skeleton Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 67 | $498 766 gems | 29.5% | 16 | 17.7 | 0.90× | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Slingshot (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-slingshot-well-worn) | 1 in 67 | $342 526 gems | 20.3% | 22 | 17.7 | 1.24× | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-aquamarine-revenge-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $130 200 gems | 10.3% | 16 | 23.6 | 0.68× | | [★ Survival Knife \| Stained (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-stained-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $73.79 114 gems | 5.8% | 18 | 23.6 | 0.76× | | [Souvenir AK-47 \| Safety Net (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ak-47-safety-net-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $32.57 50.11 gems | 3.2% | 42 | 29.5 | 1.42× | | [SSG 08 \| Detour (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-detour-factory-new) | 23.0% | $9.43 14.5 gems | 8.6% | 282 | 271.2 | 1.04× | | [XM1014 \| Heaven Guard (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-heaven-guard-field-tested) | 33.0% | $4.24 6.53 gems | 5.5% | 372 | 389.1 | 0.96× | | [Five-SeveN \| Kami (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-kami-factory-new) | 34.0% | $0.97 1.49 gems | 1.3% | 401 | 400.9 | 1.00× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Karambit | Autotronic (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-autotronic-minimal-wear) Hidden $28.09 43.22 gems $780 1,201 gems 27.78x 2026-11-07 23:22 UTC [★ Karambit | Autotronic (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-autotronic-minimal-wear) Hidden $28.09 43.22 gems $780 1,201 gems 27.78x 2026-11-07 23:22 UTC [★ Karambit | Autotronic (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-autotronic-minimal-wear) Hidden $28.09 43.22 gems $780 1,201 gems 27.78x 2026-11-07 22:43 UTC [★ Karambit | Autotronic (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-autotronic-minimal-wear) Hidden $28.09 43.22 gems $780 1,201 gems 27.78x 2026-11-06 04:00 UTC [★ Karambit | Autotronic (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-autotronic-minimal-wear) Hidden $28.09 43.22 gems $780 1,201 gems 27.78x 2026-11-05 19:51 UTC [★ Karambit | Autotronic (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-autotronic-minimal-wear) Hidden $28.09 43.22 gems $780 1,201 gems 27.78x 2026-11-05 11:24 UTC [★ Karambit | Autotronic (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-autotronic-minimal-wear) Hidden $28.09 43.22 gems $780 1,201 gems 27.78x 2026-11-05 04:48 UTC [★ Karambit | Autotronic (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-autotronic-minimal-wear) [EisdieleFifty](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/EisdieleFifty) $28.09 43.22 gems $780 1,201 gems 27.78x 2026-11-04 17:59 UTC [★ Karambit | Autotronic (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-autotronic-minimal-wear) Hidden $28.09 43.22 gems $780 1,201 gems 27.78x 2026-11-03 18:04 UTC [★ Karambit | Autotronic (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-autotronic-minimal-wear) Hidden $28.09 43.22 gems $780 1,201 gems 27.78x 2026-11-03 08:41 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=the-megladon) [Five-SeveN | Kami (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-kami-factory-new) Hidden $28.09 43.22 gems $0.97 1.49 gems 0.03x 2026-11-11 10:56 UTC [Five-SeveN | Kami (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-kami-factory-new) Hidden $28.09 43.22 gems $0.97 1.49 gems 0.03x 2026-11-11 10:56 UTC [SSG 08 | Detour (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-detour-factory-new) Hidden $28.09 43.22 gems $9.43 14.5 gems 0.34x 2026-11-11 10:56 UTC [SSG 08 | Detour (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-detour-factory-new) [Daxo](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Daxo) $28.09 43.22 gems $9.43 14.5 gems 0.34x 2026-11-11 10:56 UTC [SSG 08 | Detour (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-detour-factory-new) Hidden $28.09 43.22 gems $9.43 14.5 gems 0.34x 2026-11-11 09:58 UTC [Souvenir AK-47 | Safety Net (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ak-47-safety-net-factory-new) Hidden $28.09 43.22 gems $32.57 50.11 gems 1.16x 2026-11-11 09:58 UTC [Five-SeveN | Kami (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-kami-factory-new) Hidden $28.09 43.22 gems $0.97 1.49 gems 0.03x 2026-11-11 09:58 UTC [Five-SeveN | Kami (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-kami-factory-new) Hidden $28.09 43.22 gems $0.97 1.49 gems 0.03x 2026-11-11 09:58 UTC [XM1014 | Heaven Guard (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-heaven-guard-field-tested) Hidden $28.09 43.22 gems $4.24 6.53 gems 0.15x 2026-11-11 09:58 UTC [SSG 08 | Detour (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-detour-factory-new) [BolpyFR](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/BolpyFR) $28.09 43.22 gems $9.43 14.5 gems 0.34x 2026-11-11 09:58 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $28.09 | 90.00% | 9 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 6.0% extraordinary 1.5% Restricted 2.5% mil spec 57.0% restricted 33.0% best hit $780 (27.78x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt