--- title: "The Nice List case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "The Nice List ($81.88) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 12 items with odds, observed 81.49% over 5,038 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/the-nice-list rendered: 2026-11-11T13:53Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [The Nice List](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/the-nice-list) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · The Nice List A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/the-nice-list?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/the-nice-list?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/the-nice-list) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/the-nice-list?window=all) Price · $81.88 · 126 gems Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $73.69 from 12 items Observed RTP, 30d · 81.49% · 5,038 openings, odds method Variance · 85.6× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 250 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 97.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 799 openings · below min 7 days · 86.49% ±26.74 4,598 openings 30 days · 81.49% ±25.54 5,038 openings since tracking started · 81.49% ±25.54 5,038 openings 26.5% 91.5% 156.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/the-nice-list?window=24h) | 799 | 91.48% ±64.1 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/the-nice-list?window=7d) | 4,598 | 86.49% ±26.7 | −0.3σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/the-nice-list) | 5,038 | 81.49% ±25.5 | −0.7σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/the-nice-list?window=all) | 5,038 | 81.49% ±25.5 | −0.7σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5,169 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [EMS Katowice 2014 Legends other · base](https://gambatracker.com/items/ems-katowice-2014-legends) | 1 in 500 | $14.5K 22,239 gems | 39.2% | 10 | 10.3 | 0.97× | | [AWP \| Gungnir (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-minimal-wear) | 1 in 500 | $6,543 10,066 gems | 17.8% | 11 | 10.3 | 1.06× | | [AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-field-tested) | 1 in 333 | $4,494 6,913 gems | 18.3% | 10 | 15.5 | 0.64× | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Hedge Maze (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-hedge-maze-well-worn) | 1 in 333 | $1,852 2,849 gems | 7.5% | 9 | 15.5 | 0.58× | | [★ Karambit \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $827 1,272 gems | 5.6% | 31 | 25.8 | 1.20× | | [AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-well-worn) | 1 in 200 | $423 651 gems | 2.9% | 20 | 25.8 | 0.77× | | [ESL One Katowice 2015 Legends (Holo-Foil) other · base](https://gambatracker.com/items/esl-one-katowice-2015-legends-holo-foil) | 1 in 100 | $120 185 gems | 1.6% | 41 | 51.7 | 0.79× | | [UMP-45 \| Day Lily (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-day-lily-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $75.11 116 gems | 2.0% | 102 | 103.4 | 0.99× | | [Sticker \| Flipsid3 Tactics (Foil) \| Boston 2018 sticker · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-flipsid3-tactics-foil-boston-2018) | 1 in 20 | $25.35 39 gems | 1.7% | 236 | 258.4 | 0.91× | | [Sticker \| G2 Esports (Foil) \| Cluj-Napoca 2015 sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-g2-esports-foil-cluj-napoca-2015) | 1 in 20 | $16.25 25 gems | 1.1% | 245 | 258.4 | 0.95× | | [Sticker \| OpTic Gaming (Holo) \| London 2018 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-optic-gaming-holo-london-2018) | 10.0% | $6.45 9.93 gems | 0.9% | 488 | 516.9 | 0.94× | | [Charm \| Chicken Lil' charm · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-chicken-lil) | 75.0% | $1.30 2 gems | 1.3% | 3,966 | 3876.8 | 1.02× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [EMS Katowice 2014 Legends other · base](https://gambatracker.com/items/ems-katowice-2014-legends) Hidden $81.88 126 gems $14.5K 22,239 gems 176.5x 2026-11-11 00:19 UTC [EMS Katowice 2014 Legends other · base](https://gambatracker.com/items/ems-katowice-2014-legends) Hidden $81.88 126 gems $14.5K 22,239 gems 176.5x 2026-11-10 09:41 UTC [EMS Katowice 2014 Legends other · base](https://gambatracker.com/items/ems-katowice-2014-legends) Hidden $81.88 126 gems $14.5K 22,239 gems 176.5x 2026-11-10 01:33 UTC [EMS Katowice 2014 Legends other · base](https://gambatracker.com/items/ems-katowice-2014-legends) Hidden $81.88 126 gems $14.5K 22,239 gems 176.5x 2026-11-07 23:03 UTC [EMS Katowice 2014 Legends other · base](https://gambatracker.com/items/ems-katowice-2014-legends) Hidden $81.88 126 gems $14.5K 22,239 gems 176.5x 2026-11-07 22:55 UTC [EMS Katowice 2014 Legends other · base](https://gambatracker.com/items/ems-katowice-2014-legends) [MpiXelss](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/MpiXelss) $81.88 126 gems $14.5K 22,239 gems 176.5x 2026-11-07 01:20 UTC [EMS Katowice 2014 Legends other · base](https://gambatracker.com/items/ems-katowice-2014-legends) Hidden $81.88 126 gems $14.5K 22,239 gems 176.5x 2026-11-06 23:24 UTC [EMS Katowice 2014 Legends other · base](https://gambatracker.com/items/ems-katowice-2014-legends) Hidden $81.88 126 gems $14.5K 22,239 gems 176.5x 2026-11-06 00:06 UTC [EMS Katowice 2014 Legends other · base](https://gambatracker.com/items/ems-katowice-2014-legends) Hidden $81.88 126 gems $14.5K 22,239 gems 176.5x 2026-11-05 02:58 UTC [EMS Katowice 2014 Legends other · base](https://gambatracker.com/items/ems-katowice-2014-legends) Hidden $81.88 126 gems $14.5K 22,239 gems 176.5x 2026-11-05 02:53 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=the-nice-list) [Sticker | Flipsid3 Tactics (Foil) | Boston 2018 sticker · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-flipsid3-tactics-foil-boston-2018) Hidden $81.88 126 gems $25.35 39 gems 0.31x 2026-11-11 13:18 UTC [Charm | Chicken Lil' charm · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-chicken-lil) Hidden $81.88 126 gems $1.30 2 gems 0.02x 2026-11-11 13:18 UTC [Charm | Chicken Lil' charm · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-chicken-lil) Hidden $81.88 126 gems $1.30 2 gems 0.02x 2026-11-11 13:18 UTC [Charm | Chicken Lil' charm · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-chicken-lil) Hidden $81.88 126 gems $1.30 2 gems 0.02x 2026-11-11 13:18 UTC [Charm | Chicken Lil' charm · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-chicken-lil) Hidden $81.88 126 gems $1.30 2 gems 0.02x 2026-11-11 13:18 UTC [Sticker | OpTic Gaming (Holo) | London 2018 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-optic-gaming-holo-london-2018) [FarelEnergy skinbet.gg](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/FarelEnergy%20skinbet.gg) $81.88 126 gems $6.45 9.93 gems 0.08x 2026-11-11 13:18 UTC [Sticker | OpTic Gaming (Holo) | London 2018 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-optic-gaming-holo-london-2018) Hidden $81.88 126 gems $6.45 9.93 gems 0.08x 2026-11-11 13:14 UTC [Charm | Chicken Lil' charm · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-chicken-lil) Hidden $81.88 126 gems $1.30 2 gems 0.02x 2026-11-11 13:14 UTC [Sticker | G2 Esports (Foil) | Cluj-Napoca 2015 sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-g2-esports-foil-cluj-napoca-2015) Hidden $81.88 126 gems $16.25 25 gems 0.20x 2026-11-11 13:14 UTC [Charm | Chicken Lil' charm · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-chicken-lil) Hidden $81.88 126 gems $1.30 2 gems 0.02x 2026-11-11 13:14 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $81.88 | 90.00% | 12 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed base 1.2% covert 1.5% extraordinary 0.3% #4b69ff 2.0% pink 5.0% other 5.0% remarkable 10.0% uncommon 75.0% best hit $14.5K (176.5x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt