--- title: "The Outcast case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "The Outcast ($12.90) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.97% from 12 items with odds, observed 86.95% over 6,818 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/the-outcast rendered: 2026-11-11T18:54Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [The Outcast](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/the-outcast) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · The Outcast A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/the-outcast?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/the-outcast?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/the-outcast) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/the-outcast?window=all) Price · $12.90 · 19.84 gems Advertised RTP · 89.97% · EV $11.60 from 12 items Observed RTP, 30d · 86.95% · 6,818 openings, odds method Variance · 23.3× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 100 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 91.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 100.22% ±35.15 724 openings 7 days · 88.45% ±12.47 5,751 openings 30 days · 86.95% ±11.45 6,818 openings since tracking started · 86.95% ±11.45 6,818 openings 64.5% 100.3% 136.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/the-outcast?window=24h) | 724 | 100.22% ±35.2 | +0.6σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/the-outcast?window=7d) | 5,751 | 88.45% ±12.5 | −0.2σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/the-outcast) | 6,818 | 86.95% ±11.5 | −0.5σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/the-outcast?window=all) | 6,818 | 86.95% ±11.5 | −0.5σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6,940 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Freehand (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-freehand-factory-new) | 1 in 250 | $692 1,064 gems | 23.9% | 31 | 27.8 | 1.12× | | [★ Karambit \| Freehand (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-freehand-factory-new) | 1 in 167 | $513 789 gems | 26.5% | 40 | 41.6 | 0.96× | | [AUG \| Flame Jörmungandr (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-flame-jormungandr-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $195 300 gems | 16.8% | 60 | 69.4 | 0.86× | | [★ Hand Wraps \| Spruce DDPAT (Battle-Scarred) gloves · #EB4B4B](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-spruce-ddpat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 50 | $64.68 99.5 gems | 11.1% | 131 | 138.8 | 0.94× | | [Desert Eagle \| Pilot (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-pilot-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $41.33 63.58 gems | 7.1% | 115 | 138.8 | 0.83× | | [USP-S \| Serum (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-serum-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $19.40 29.84 gems | 5.0% | 200 | 208.2 | 0.96× | | [AK-47 \| Blue Laminate (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-blue-laminate-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $6.66 10.24 gems | 3.4% | 402 | 416.4 | 0.97× | | [P90 \| Nostalgia (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-nostalgia-field-tested) | 10.0% | $2.70 4.15 gems | 2.3% | 770 | 694.0 | 1.11× | | [MP7 \| Impire (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-impire-minimal-wear) | 15.0% | $1.53 2.36 gems | 2.0% | 984 | 1041.0 | 0.95× | | [PP-Bizon \| Embargo (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-embargo-well-worn) | 20.0% | $0.64 0.98 gems | 1.1% | 1,373 | 1388.0 | 0.99× | | [M249 \| Predator (Minimal Wear) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-predator-minimal-wear) | 20.0% | $0.30 0.46 gems | 0.5% | 1,402 | 1388.0 | 1.01× | | [Glock-18 \| Wraiths (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-wraiths-field-tested) | 20.0% | $0.09 0.14 gems | 0.2% | 1,432 | 1388.0 | 1.03× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Butterfly Knife | Freehand (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-freehand-factory-new) Hidden $12.90 19.84 gems $692 1,064 gems 53.65x 2026-11-11 15:00 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Freehand (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-freehand-factory-new) Hidden $12.90 19.84 gems $692 1,064 gems 53.65x 2026-11-11 04:53 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Freehand (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-freehand-factory-new) Hidden $12.90 19.84 gems $692 1,064 gems 53.65x 2026-11-10 12:19 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Freehand (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-freehand-factory-new) [smschico =\]===>](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/smschico%20%3D%5D%3D%3D%3D%3E) $12.90 19.84 gems $692 1,064 gems 53.65x 2026-11-10 06:46 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Freehand (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-freehand-factory-new) Hidden $12.90 19.84 gems $692 1,064 gems 53.65x 2026-11-10 05:08 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Freehand (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-freehand-factory-new) Hidden $12.90 19.84 gems $692 1,064 gems 53.65x 2026-11-10 04:46 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Freehand (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-freehand-factory-new) Hidden $12.90 19.84 gems $692 1,064 gems 53.65x 2026-11-09 20:37 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Freehand (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-freehand-factory-new) [TL\_HoNest](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/TL_HoNest) $12.90 19.84 gems $692 1,064 gems 53.65x 2026-11-09 10:43 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Freehand (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-freehand-factory-new) Hidden $12.90 19.84 gems $692 1,064 gems 53.65x 2026-11-08 18:55 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Freehand (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-freehand-factory-new) Hidden $12.90 19.84 gems $692 1,064 gems 53.65x 2026-11-08 16:49 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=the-outcast) [P90 | Nostalgia (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-nostalgia-field-tested) Hidden $12.90 19.84 gems $2.70 4.15 gems 0.21x 2026-11-11 18:46 UTC [AUG | Flame Jörmungandr (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-flame-jormungandr-minimal-wear) Hidden $12.90 19.84 gems $195 300 gems 15.12x 2026-11-11 18:46 UTC [Glock-18 | Wraiths (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-wraiths-field-tested) Hidden $12.90 19.84 gems $0.09 0.14 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 18:46 UTC [AK-47 | Blue Laminate (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-blue-laminate-minimal-wear) Hidden $12.90 19.84 gems $6.66 10.24 gems 0.52x 2026-11-11 18:46 UTC [MP7 | Impire (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-impire-minimal-wear) Hidden $12.90 19.84 gems $1.53 2.36 gems 0.12x 2026-11-11 18:46 UTC [Glock-18 | Wraiths (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-wraiths-field-tested) [Boomer IV](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Boomer%20IV) $12.90 19.84 gems $0.09 0.14 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 18:46 UTC [Desert Eagle | Pilot (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-pilot-field-tested) Hidden $12.90 19.84 gems $41.33 63.58 gems 3.20x 2026-11-11 18:31 UTC [Glock-18 | Wraiths (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-wraiths-field-tested) Hidden $12.90 19.84 gems $0.09 0.14 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 18:31 UTC [Glock-18 | Wraiths (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-wraiths-field-tested) Hidden $12.90 19.84 gems $0.09 0.14 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 18:31 UTC [AK-47 | Blue Laminate (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-blue-laminate-minimal-wear) Hidden $12.90 19.84 gems $6.66 10.24 gems 0.52x 2026-11-11 18:11 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $12.90 | 89.97% | 12 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 1.0% restricted 24.0% #EB4B4B 2.0% classified 13.0% #8847ff 20.0% Common 20.0% #4b69ff 20.0% best hit $692 (53.65x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.97 on average: an expected loss of $10.03 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt