--- title: "The Parlay Dream case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "The Parlay Dream ($166.37) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 15 items with odds, observed 102.05% over 668 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/the-parlay-dream rendered: 2026-11-11T21:57Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [The Parlay Dream](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/the-parlay-dream) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · The Parlay Dream A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/the-parlay-dream?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/the-parlay-dream?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/the-parlay-dream) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/the-parlay-dream?window=all) Price · $166.37 · 256 gems Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $149.74 from 15 items Observed RTP, 30d · 102.05% · 668 openings, odds method Variance · 15.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 50 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 95.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 38 openings · below min 7 days · 102.42% ±35.19 469 openings 30 days · 102.05% ±29.48 668 openings since tracking started · 102.05% ±29.48 668 openings 56.0% 180.3% 304.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/the-parlay-dream?window=24h) | 38 | 180.09% ±123.6 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/the-parlay-dream?window=7d) | 469 | 102.42% ±35.2 | +0.7σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/the-parlay-dream) | 668 | 102.05% ±29.5 | +0.8σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/the-parlay-dream?window=all) | 668 | 102.05% ±29.5 | +0.8σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 680 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 400 | $7,475 11,500 gems | 12.5% | 1 | 1.7 | 0.59× | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 400 | $6,497 9,995 gems | 10.8% | 2 | 1.7 | 1.18× | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 400 | $5,278 8,120 gems | 8.8% | 2 | 1.7 | 1.18× | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 400 | $4,285 6,592 gems | 7.2% | 2 | 1.7 | 1.18× | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 400 | $2,671 4,109 gems | 4.5% | 1 | 1.7 | 0.59× | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 400 | $1,752 2,695 gems | 2.9% | 1 | 1.7 | 0.59× | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 400 | $1,463 2,250 gems | 2.4% | 3 | 1.7 | 1.76× | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 400 | $1,398 2,150 gems | 2.3% | 0 | 1.7 | 0.00× | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $1,281 1,970 gems | 4.3% | 4 | 3.4 | 1.18× | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) | 1 in 200 | $1,235 1,900 gems | 4.1% | 8 | 3.4 | 2.35× | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 200 | $1,206 1,856 gems | 4.0% | 7 | 3.4 | 2.06× | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 200 | $1,180 1,815 gems | 3.9% | 7 | 3.4 | 2.06× | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) | 1 in 200 | $1,162 1,787 gems | 3.9% | 6 | 3.4 | 1.76× | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $1,105 1,700 gems | 3.7% | 2 | 3.4 | 0.59× | | [AWP \| Queen's Gambit (Field-Tested) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-queens-gambit-field-tested) | 95.0% | $38.79 59.68 gems | 24.6% | 634 | 646.0 | 0.98× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) Hidden $166 256 gems $7,475 11,500 gems 44.93x 2026-11-04 04:52 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) [Gropus The Grand](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Gropus%20The%20Grand) $166 256 gems $6,497 9,995 gems 39.05x 2026-11-05 19:14 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $166 256 gems $6,497 9,995 gems 39.05x 2026-11-05 00:01 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) [Live @ Kick/JaekCreates](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Live%20%40%20Kick%2FJaekCreates) $166 256 gems $5,278 8,120 gems 31.72x 2026-11-11 18:49 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) Hidden $166 256 gems $5,278 8,120 gems 31.72x 2026-11-04 03:08 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $166 256 gems $4,285 6,592 gems 25.75x 2026-11-10 19:26 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $166 256 gems $4,285 6,592 gems 25.75x 2026-11-08 07:53 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) Hidden $166 256 gems $2,671 4,109 gems 16.05x 2026-11-05 05:41 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) Hidden $166 256 gems $1,752 2,695 gems 10.53x 2026-11-05 21:28 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) Hidden $166 256 gems $1,463 2,250 gems 8.79x 2026-11-05 19:46 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=the-parlay-dream) [AWP | Queen's Gambit (Field-Tested) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-queens-gambit-field-tested) Hidden $166 256 gems $38.79 59.68 gems 0.23x 2026-11-11 18:49 UTC [AWP | Queen's Gambit (Field-Tested) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-queens-gambit-field-tested) Hidden $166 256 gems $38.79 59.68 gems 0.23x 2026-11-11 18:49 UTC [AWP | Queen's Gambit (Field-Tested) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-queens-gambit-field-tested) Hidden $166 256 gems $38.79 59.68 gems 0.23x 2026-11-11 18:49 UTC [AWP | Queen's Gambit (Field-Tested) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-queens-gambit-field-tested) Hidden $166 256 gems $38.79 59.68 gems 0.23x 2026-11-11 18:49 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) Hidden $166 256 gems $1,206 1,856 gems 7.25x 2026-11-11 18:49 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) [Live @ Kick/JaekCreates](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Live%20%40%20Kick%2FJaekCreates) $166 256 gems $5,278 8,120 gems 31.72x 2026-11-11 18:49 UTC [AWP | Queen's Gambit (Field-Tested) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-queens-gambit-field-tested) Hidden $166 256 gems $38.79 59.68 gems 0.23x 2026-11-11 17:59 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) Hidden $166 256 gems $1,235 1,900 gems 7.42x 2026-11-11 17:59 UTC [AWP | Queen's Gambit (Field-Tested) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-queens-gambit-field-tested) Hidden $166 256 gems $38.79 59.68 gems 0.23x 2026-11-11 17:59 UTC [AWP | Queen's Gambit (Field-Tested) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-queens-gambit-field-tested) Hidden $166 256 gems $38.79 59.68 gems 0.23x 2026-11-11 17:59 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $166 | 90.00% | 15 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 4.0% sunny 0.5% gold 0.5% rare 95.0% best hit $7,475 (44.93x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt