--- title: "The Plan case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "The Plan ($13.76) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.99% from 8 items with odds, observed 93.07% over 536 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/the-plan rendered: 2026-11-11T19:33Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [The Plan](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/the-plan) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · The Plan A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/the-plan?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/the-plan?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/the-plan) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/the-plan?window=all) Price · $13.76 · 21.17 gems Advertised RTP · 89.99% · EV $12.38 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 93.07% · 536 openings, odds method Variance · 1.7× · of price², per opening Tail share · 10.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 70.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 92.17% ±23.20 124 openings 7 days · 95.07% ±11.57 499 openings 30 days · 93.07% ±11.16 536 openings since tracking started · 93.07% ±11.16 536 openings 68.5% 92.3% 116.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/the-plan?window=24h) | 124 | 92.17% ±23.2 | +0.2σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/the-plan?window=7d) | 499 | 95.07% ±11.6 | +0.9σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/the-plan) | 536 | 93.07% ±11.2 | +0.5σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/the-plan?window=all) | 536 | 93.07% ±11.2 | +0.5σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 536 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [M4A1-S \| Player Two (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-factory-new) | 10.0% | $62.02 95.41 gems | 50.1% | 60 | 53.6 | 1.12× | | [USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-factory-new) | 10.0% | $23.17 35.65 gems | 18.7% | 50 | 53.6 | 0.93× | | [MAC-10 \| Propaganda (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-propaganda-factory-new) | 10.0% | $17.34 26.67 gems | 14.0% | 47 | 53.6 | 0.88× | | [MAC-10 \| Disco Tech (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-disco-tech-factory-new) | 10.0% | $9.45 14.54 gems | 7.6% | 58 | 53.6 | 1.08× | | [CZ75-Auto \| Tread Plate (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tread-plate-factory-new) | 10.0% | $5.32 8.18 gems | 4.3% | 54 | 53.6 | 1.01× | | [Five-SeveN \| Fowl Play (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fowl-play-factory-new) | 10.0% | $4.75 7.3 gems | 3.8% | 50 | 53.6 | 0.93× | | [CZ75-Auto \| Tacticat (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tacticat-factory-new) | 20.0% | $0.66 1.01 gems | 1.1% | 109 | 107.2 | 1.02× | | [MAC-10 \| Strats (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-strats-factory-new) | 20.0% | $0.24 0.37 gems | 0.4% | 108 | 107.2 | 1.01× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=the-plan) [MAC-10 | Strats (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-strats-factory-new) Hidden $13.76 21.17 gems $0.24 0.37 gems 0.02x 2026-11-11 17:12 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Tacticat (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tacticat-factory-new) Hidden $13.76 21.17 gems $0.66 1.01 gems 0.05x 2026-11-11 17:12 UTC [MAC-10 | Strats (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-strats-factory-new) Hidden $13.76 21.17 gems $0.24 0.37 gems 0.02x 2026-11-11 17:12 UTC [USP-S | Monster Mashup (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-factory-new) Hidden $13.76 21.17 gems $23.17 35.65 gems 1.68x 2026-11-11 17:12 UTC [USP-S | Monster Mashup (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-factory-new) Hidden $13.76 21.17 gems $23.17 35.65 gems 1.68x 2026-11-11 17:12 UTC [MAC-10 | Strats (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-strats-factory-new) [VYCK4](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/VYCK4) $13.76 21.17 gems $0.24 0.37 gems 0.02x 2026-11-11 17:12 UTC [MAC-10 | Propaganda (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-propaganda-factory-new) Hidden $13.76 21.17 gems $17.34 26.67 gems 1.26x 2026-11-11 15:58 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Tacticat (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tacticat-factory-new) Hidden $13.76 21.17 gems $0.66 1.01 gems 0.05x 2026-11-11 15:58 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Tread Plate (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tread-plate-factory-new) Hidden $13.76 21.17 gems $5.32 8.18 gems 0.39x 2026-11-11 15:58 UTC [MAC-10 | Strats (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-strats-factory-new) Hidden $13.76 21.17 gems $0.24 0.37 gems 0.02x 2026-11-11 15:58 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $13.76 | 89.99% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 10.0% classified 40.0% #8847ff 10.0% restricted 20.0% consumer 20.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.99 on average: an expected loss of $10.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt