--- title: "The Witching Hour case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "The Witching Hour ($25.29) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.99% from 10 items with odds, observed 83.50% over 1,727 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/the-witching-hour-a1623a5feab3171675323cae441c16a7 rendered: 2026-11-13T04:14Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [The Witching Hour](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/the-witching-hour-a1623a5feab3171675323cae441c16a7) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · The Witching Hour A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/the-witching-hour-a1623a5feab3171675323cae441c16a7?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/the-witching-hour-a1623a5feab3171675323cae441c16a7?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/the-witching-hour-a1623a5feab3171675323cae441c16a7) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/the-witching-hour-a1623a5feab3171675323cae441c16a7?window=all) Price · $25.29 · 38.91 gems Advertised RTP · 89.99% · EV $22.76 from 10 items Observed RTP, 30d · 83.50% · 1,727 openings, odds method Variance · 11.7× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 33 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 85.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 118 openings · below min 7 days · 78.44% ±18.91 1,255 openings 30 days · 83.50% ±16.12 1,727 openings since tracking started · 83.50% ±16.12 1,727 openings -0.5% 55.0% 110.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/the-witching-hour-a1623a5feab3171675323cae441c16a7?window=24h) | 118 | 48.28% ±61.7 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/the-witching-hour-a1623a5feab3171675323cae441c16a7?window=7d) | 1,255 | 78.44% ±18.9 | −1.2σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/the-witching-hour-a1623a5feab3171675323cae441c16a7) | 1,727 | 83.50% ±16.1 | −0.8σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/the-witching-hour-a1623a5feab3171675323cae441c16a7?window=all) | 1,727 | 83.50% ±16.1 | −0.8σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,879 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Skeleton Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $779 1,199 gems | 34.2% | 16 | 18.8 | 0.85× | | [★ Hand Wraps \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $280 430 gems | 24.6% | 38 | 37.6 | 1.01× | | [AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $84.50 130 gems | 7.4% | 32 | 37.6 | 0.85× | | [AK-47 \| Consequence of the Jinn (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-consequence-of-the-jinn-well-worn) | 1 in 20 | $48.11 74.02 gems | 10.6% | 90 | 94.0 | 0.96× | | [AK-47 \| Nightwish (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $36.31 55.86 gems | 8.0% | 105 | 94.0 | 1.12× | | [AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-factory-new) | 10.0% | $14.46 22.25 gems | 6.4% | 165 | 187.9 | 0.88× | | [M4A4 \| Hellish (Field-Tested) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellish-field-tested) | 10.0% | $8.63 13.27 gems | 3.8% | 169 | 187.9 | 0.90× | | [M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-evil-daimyo-factory-new) | 20.0% | $4.00 6.16 gems | 3.5% | 410 | 375.8 | 1.09× | | [M4A4 \| Etch Lord (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-etch-lord-factory-new) | 20.0% | $1.64 2.52 gems | 1.4% | 386 | 375.8 | 1.03× | | [M4A4 \| Aeolian Dark (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-aeolian-dark-factory-new) | 25.0% | $0.11 0.17 gems | 0.1% | 468 | 469.8 | 1.00× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 13 Nov, 02:19 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Skeleton Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $25.29 38.91 gems $779 1,199 gems 30.81x 2026-11-10 18:24 UTC [★ Skeleton Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $25.29 38.91 gems $779 1,199 gems 30.81x 2026-11-10 15:59 UTC [★ Skeleton Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $25.29 38.91 gems $779 1,199 gems 30.81x 2026-11-09 14:07 UTC [★ Skeleton Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) [bimbo pičkok](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/bimbo%20pi%C4%8Dkok) $25.29 38.91 gems $779 1,199 gems 30.81x 2026-11-08 22:14 UTC [★ Skeleton Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) [Mexi](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Mexi) $25.29 38.91 gems $779 1,199 gems 30.81x 2026-11-08 16:37 UTC [★ Skeleton Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) [STIANHAY](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/STIANHAY) $25.29 38.91 gems $779 1,199 gems 30.81x 2026-11-08 16:10 UTC [★ Skeleton Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $25.29 38.91 gems $779 1,199 gems 30.81x 2026-11-06 20:08 UTC [★ Skeleton Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $25.29 38.91 gems $779 1,199 gems 30.81x 2026-11-06 19:54 UTC [★ Skeleton Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $25.29 38.91 gems $779 1,199 gems 30.81x 2026-11-06 19:54 UTC [★ Skeleton Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $25.29 38.91 gems $779 1,199 gems 30.81x 2026-11-06 13:15 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=the-witching-hour-a1623a5feab3171675323cae441c16a7) [M4A4 | Aeolian Dark (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-aeolian-dark-factory-new) Hidden $25.29 38.91 gems $0.11 0.17 gems 0.00x 2026-11-12 20:32 UTC [M4A4 | Etch Lord (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-etch-lord-factory-new) Hidden $25.29 38.91 gems $1.64 2.52 gems 0.06x 2026-11-12 20:32 UTC [M4A4 | Aeolian Dark (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-aeolian-dark-factory-new) Hidden $25.29 38.91 gems $0.11 0.17 gems 0.00x 2026-11-12 20:32 UTC [M4A4 | Evil Daimyo (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-evil-daimyo-factory-new) Hidden $25.29 38.91 gems $4.00 6.16 gems 0.16x 2026-11-12 20:32 UTC [M4A4 | Evil Daimyo (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-evil-daimyo-factory-new) Hidden $25.29 38.91 gems $4.00 6.16 gems 0.16x 2026-11-12 20:32 UTC [M4A4 | Aeolian Dark (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-aeolian-dark-factory-new) [LKAY](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/LKAY) $25.29 38.91 gems $0.11 0.17 gems 0.00x 2026-11-12 20:32 UTC [M4A4 | Evil Daimyo (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-evil-daimyo-factory-new) Hidden $25.29 38.91 gems $4.00 6.16 gems 0.16x 2026-11-12 20:32 UTC [M4A4 | Etch Lord (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-etch-lord-factory-new) Hidden $25.29 38.91 gems $1.64 2.52 gems 0.06x 2026-11-12 20:32 UTC [M4A4 | Aeolian Dark (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-aeolian-dark-factory-new) Hidden $25.29 38.91 gems $0.11 0.17 gems 0.00x 2026-11-12 20:32 UTC [M4A4 | Aeolian Dark (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-aeolian-dark-factory-new) Hidden $25.29 38.91 gems $0.11 0.17 gems 0.00x 2026-11-12 20:32 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $25.29 | 89.99% | 10 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed legendary 1.0% extraordinary 2.0% covert 2.0% red 10.0% classified 10.0% rare 10.0% restricted 20.0% violet 20.0% Uncommon 25.0% best hit $779 (30.81x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.99 on average: an expected loss of $10.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt