--- title: "Thermal Shock case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Thermal Shock ($179.53) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 13 items with odds, observed 65.16% over 275 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/thermal-shock rendered: 2026-11-11T13:53Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Thermal Shock](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/thermal-shock) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Thermal Shock A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/thermal-shock?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/thermal-shock?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/thermal-shock) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/thermal-shock?window=all) Price · $179.53 · 276 gems Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $161.57 from 13 items Observed RTP, 30d · 65.16% · 275 openings, odds method Variance · 7.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 17 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 81.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 24 openings · below min 7 days · 67.62% ±37.29 215 openings 30 days · 65.16% ±32.97 275 openings since tracking started · 65.16% ±32.97 275 openings -0.5% 88.8% 178.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/thermal-shock?window=24h) | 24 | 65.97% ±111.6 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/thermal-shock?window=7d) | 215 | 67.62% ±37.3 | −1.2σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/thermal-shock) | 275 | 65.16% ±33.0 | −1.5σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/thermal-shock?window=all) | 275 | 65.16% ±33.0 | −1.5σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 13 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 275 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 500 | $7,085 10,900 gems | 8.8% | 0 | 0.6 | — | | [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Howl (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-howl-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $4,395 6,761 gems | 13.6% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.73× | | [★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-minimal-wear-ruby) | 1 in 100 | $1,780 2,738 gems | 11.0% | 2 | 2.8 | 0.73× | | [★ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 56 | $1,040 1,600 gems | 11.6% | 3 | 4.9 | 0.61× | | [★ Karambit \| Autotronic (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-autotronic-battle-scarred) | 1 in 40 | $703 1,081 gems | 10.9% | 7 | 6.9 | 1.02× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 33 | $553 850 gems | 10.3% | 2 | 8.3 | 0.24× | | [★ Kukri Knife \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/kukri-knife-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $262 404 gems | 8.1% | 10 | 13.8 | 0.73× | | [★ Hand Wraps \| Cobalt Skulls (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-cobalt-skulls-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20 | $197 303 gems | 6.1% | 14 | 13.8 | 1.02× | | [★ Moto Gloves \| Polygon (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-polygon-well-worn) | 1 in 13 | $112 172 gems | 5.5% | 24 | 22.0 | 1.09× | | [MP9 \| Stained Glass (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-stained-glass-field-tested) | 10.0% | $62.69 96.45 gems | 3.9% | 37 | 27.5 | 1.35× | | [Glock-18 \| AXIA (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-axia-factory-new) | 10.0% | $54.28 83.5 gems | 3.4% | 28 | 27.5 | 1.02× | | [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-nightmare-minimal-wear) | 15.0% | $30.82 47.41 gems | 2.9% | 47 | 41.3 | 1.14× | | [AWP \| Sun in Leo (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-sun-in-leo-minimal-wear) | 38.0% | $17.15 26.39 gems | 4.0% | 100 | 104.5 | 0.96× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [StatTrak™ M4A4 | Howl (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-howl-field-tested) Hidden $180 276 gems $4,395 6,761 gems 24.48x 2026-11-08 12:07 UTC [★ Bayonet | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-minimal-wear-ruby) Hidden $180 276 gems $1,780 2,738 gems 9.91x 2026-11-10 14:20 UTC [★ Bayonet | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-minimal-wear-ruby) Hidden $180 276 gems $1,780 2,738 gems 9.91x 2026-11-04 00:18 UTC [★ Ursus Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $180 276 gems $1,040 1,600 gems 5.79x 2026-11-08 12:09 UTC [★ Ursus Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $180 276 gems $1,040 1,600 gems 5.79x 2026-11-07 16:08 UTC [★ Ursus Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $180 276 gems $1,040 1,600 gems 5.79x 2026-11-03 18:16 UTC [★ Karambit | Autotronic (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-autotronic-battle-scarred) Hidden $180 276 gems $703 1,081 gems 3.91x 2026-11-08 13:24 UTC [★ Karambit | Autotronic (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-autotronic-battle-scarred) Hidden $180 276 gems $703 1,081 gems 3.91x 2026-11-07 15:53 UTC [★ Karambit | Autotronic (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-autotronic-battle-scarred) Hidden $180 276 gems $703 1,081 gems 3.91x 2026-11-06 21:59 UTC [★ Karambit | Autotronic (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-autotronic-battle-scarred) [Frexah](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Frexah) $180 276 gems $703 1,081 gems 3.91x 2026-11-06 08:40 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=thermal-shock) [AWP | Sun in Leo (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-sun-in-leo-minimal-wear) Hidden $180 276 gems $17.15 26.39 gems 0.10x 2026-11-11 10:44 UTC [StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Nightmare (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-nightmare-minimal-wear) Hidden $180 276 gems $30.82 47.41 gems 0.17x 2026-11-11 10:44 UTC [★ Moto Gloves | Polygon (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-polygon-well-worn) Hidden $180 276 gems $112 172 gems 0.62x 2026-11-11 10:44 UTC [StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Nightmare (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-nightmare-minimal-wear) Hidden $180 276 gems $30.82 47.41 gems 0.17x 2026-11-11 10:44 UTC [AWP | Sun in Leo (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-sun-in-leo-minimal-wear) Hidden $180 276 gems $17.15 26.39 gems 0.10x 2026-11-11 10:44 UTC [AWP | Sun in Leo (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-sun-in-leo-minimal-wear) [rami](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/rami) $180 276 gems $17.15 26.39 gems 0.10x 2026-11-11 10:44 UTC [AWP | Sun in Leo (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-sun-in-leo-minimal-wear) Hidden $180 276 gems $17.15 26.39 gems 0.10x 2026-11-10 16:43 UTC [MP9 | Stained Glass (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-stained-glass-field-tested) Hidden $180 276 gems $62.69 96.45 gems 0.35x 2026-11-10 16:43 UTC [Glock-18 | AXIA (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-axia-factory-new) Hidden $180 276 gems $54.28 83.5 gems 0.30x 2026-11-10 16:43 UTC [AWP | Sun in Leo (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-sun-in-leo-minimal-wear) Hidden $180 276 gems $17.15 26.39 gems 0.10x 2026-11-10 16:43 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $180 | 90.00% | 13 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 8.5% legendary 0.5% Immortal 5.0% extraordinary 13.0% restricted 10.0% rare 10.0% Classified 15.0% industrial 38.0% best hit $4,395 (24.48x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt