--- title: "Thief case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Thief ($176.66) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 10 items with odds, observed 82.84% over 112 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/thief rendered: 2026-11-11T14:52Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Thief](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/thief) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Thief A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/thief?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/thief?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/thief) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/thief?window=all) Price · $176.66 · 272 gems Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $159.00 from 10 items Observed RTP, 30d · 82.84% · 112 openings, odds method Variance · 3.4× · of price², per opening Tail share · 15.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 75.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 4 openings · below min 7 days · 86.14% ±36.38 100 openings 30 days · 82.84% ±34.38 112 openings since tracking started · 82.84% ±34.38 112 openings -0.5% 113.3% 227.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/thief?window=24h) | 4 | 44.46% ±181.9 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/thief?window=7d) | 100 | 86.14% ±36.4 | −0.2σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/thief) | 112 | 82.84% ±34.4 | −0.4σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/thief?window=all) | 112 | 82.84% ±34.4 | −0.4σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 114 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $4,817 7,410 gems | 3.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 250 | $1,828 2,813 gems | 4.6% | 1 | 0.5 | — | | [★ Hand Wraps \| Overprint (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-overprint-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $805 1,238 gems | 22.8% | 7 | 5.1 | 1.36× | | [★ Moto Gloves \| Turtle (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-turtle-factory-new) | 10.0% | $762 1,173 gems | 48.0% | 6 | 11.4 | 0.53× | | [AWP \| Containment Breach (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-factory-new) | 10.0% | $299 459 gems | 18.8% | 14 | 11.4 | 1.23× | | [AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-factory-new) | 10.0% | $22.75 35 gems | 1.4% | 10 | 11.4 | 0.88× | | [Glock-18 \| Nuclear Garden (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-nuclear-garden-factory-new) | 10.0% | $14.36 22.09 gems | 0.9% | 10 | 11.4 | 0.88× | | [UMP-45 \| Primal Saber (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-primal-saber-factory-new) | 10.0% | $5.78 8.89 gems | 0.4% | 12 | 11.4 | 1.05× | | [USP-S \| Flashback (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-flashback-factory-new) | 20.0% | $0.75 1.15 gems | 0.1% | 26 | 22.8 | 1.14× | | [AWP \| Pit Viper (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pit-viper-minimal-wear) | 25.0% | $0.44 0.68 gems | 0.1% | 28 | 28.5 | 0.98× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Bowie Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new) Hidden $177 272 gems $1,828 2,813 gems 10.35x 2026-11-07 06:28 UTC [★ Hand Wraps | Overprint (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-overprint-factory-new) Hidden $177 272 gems $805 1,238 gems 4.55x 2026-11-10 12:49 UTC [★ Hand Wraps | Overprint (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-overprint-factory-new) Hidden $177 272 gems $805 1,238 gems 4.55x 2026-11-08 02:04 UTC [★ Hand Wraps | Overprint (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-overprint-factory-new) Hidden $177 272 gems $805 1,238 gems 4.55x 2026-11-07 20:00 UTC [★ Hand Wraps | Overprint (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-overprint-factory-new) Hidden $177 272 gems $805 1,238 gems 4.55x 2026-11-07 06:28 UTC [★ Hand Wraps | Overprint (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-overprint-factory-new) Hidden $177 272 gems $805 1,238 gems 4.55x 2026-11-04 18:54 UTC [★ Hand Wraps | Overprint (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-overprint-factory-new) Hidden $177 272 gems $805 1,238 gems 4.55x 2026-11-04 18:54 UTC [★ Hand Wraps | Overprint (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-overprint-factory-new) Hidden $177 272 gems $805 1,238 gems 4.55x 2026-11-03 18:15 UTC [★ Moto Gloves | Turtle (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-turtle-factory-new) Hidden $177 272 gems $762 1,173 gems 4.32x 2026-11-10 04:46 UTC [★ Moto Gloves | Turtle (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-turtle-factory-new) Hidden $177 272 gems $762 1,173 gems 4.32x 2026-11-09 19:32 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=thief) [AWP | Containment Breach (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-factory-new) Hidden $177 272 gems $299 459 gems 1.69x 2026-11-10 19:08 UTC [AWP | Pit Viper (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pit-viper-minimal-wear) Hidden $177 272 gems $0.44 0.68 gems 0.00x 2026-11-10 19:08 UTC [USP-S | Flashback (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-flashback-factory-new) Hidden $177 272 gems $0.75 1.15 gems 0.00x 2026-11-10 19:08 UTC [Glock-18 | Nuclear Garden (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-nuclear-garden-factory-new) [i4m.didar](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/i4m.didar) $177 272 gems $14.36 22.09 gems 0.08x 2026-11-10 19:08 UTC [UMP-45 | Primal Saber (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-primal-saber-factory-new) Hidden $177 272 gems $5.78 8.89 gems 0.03x 2026-11-10 12:49 UTC [AWP | Containment Breach (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-factory-new) Hidden $177 272 gems $299 459 gems 1.69x 2026-11-10 12:49 UTC [USP-S | Flashback (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-flashback-factory-new) Hidden $177 272 gems $0.75 1.15 gems 0.00x 2026-11-10 12:49 UTC [USP-S | Flashback (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-flashback-factory-new) Hidden $177 272 gems $0.75 1.15 gems 0.00x 2026-11-10 12:49 UTC [★ Hand Wraps | Overprint (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-overprint-factory-new) Hidden $177 272 gems $805 1,238 gems 4.55x 2026-11-10 12:49 UTC [AWP | Pit Viper (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pit-viper-minimal-wear) [Surgest](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Surgest) $177 272 gems $0.44 0.68 gems 0.00x 2026-11-10 12:49 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $177 | 90.00% | 10 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed #ffd700 0.1% sunny 0.4% legendary 4.5% extraordinary 10.0% covert 10.0% Legendary 10.0% restricted 55.0% classified 10.0% best hit $1,828 (10.35x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt