--- title: "Threshold Case case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Threshold Case ($74.87) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 9 items with odds, observed 84.19% over 209 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/threshold-case rendered: 2026-11-11T13:26Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Threshold Case](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/threshold-case) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Threshold Case A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/threshold-case?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/threshold-case?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/threshold-case) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/threshold-case?window=all) Price · $74.87 · 115 gems Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $67.38 from 9 items Observed RTP, 30d · 84.19% · 209 openings, odds method Variance · 7.0× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 20 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 80.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 26 openings · below min 7 days · 94.35% ±38.84 177 openings 30 days · 84.19% ±35.74 209 openings since tracking started · 84.19% ±35.74 209 openings -0.5% 87.5% 175.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/threshold-case?window=24h) | 26 | 73.53% ±101.3 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/threshold-case?window=7d) | 177 | 94.35% ±38.8 | +0.2σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/threshold-case) | 209 | 84.19% ±35.7 | −0.3σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/threshold-case?window=all) | 209 | 84.19% ±35.7 | −0.3σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 209 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Driver Gloves \| King Snake (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-king-snake-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $2,304 3,544 gems | 17.1% | 0 | 1.0 | 0.00× | | [★ Nomad Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · gold · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 67 | $777 1,196 gems | 17.3% | 4 | 3.1 | 1.28× | | [M4A1-S \| Printstream (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $416 640 gems | 18.5% | 8 | 6.3 | 1.28× | | [AWP \| Wildfire (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $161 248 gems | 12.0% | 11 | 10.5 | 1.05× | | [AK-47 \| Head Shot (Factory New) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-head-shot-factory-new) | 10.0% | $100 154 gems | 14.9% | 19 | 20.9 | 0.91× | | [USP-S \| Printstream (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-printstream-minimal-wear) | 15.0% | $43.08 66.28 gems | 9.6% | 38 | 31.3 | 1.21× | | [M4A4 \| Desert-Strike (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desert-strike-minimal-wear) | 15.0% | $25.33 38.97 gems | 5.6% | 29 | 31.3 | 0.93× | | [P90 \| ScaraB Rush (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-scarab-rush-field-tested) | 25.0% | $9.50 14.62 gems | 3.5% | 52 | 52.3 | 1.00× | | [Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mecha-industries) | 25.0% | $3.89 5.98 gems | 1.4% | 48 | 52.3 | 0.92× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Nomad Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · gold · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) Hidden $74.87 115 gems $777 1,196 gems 10.38x 2026-11-10 07:03 UTC [★ Nomad Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · gold · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) Hidden $74.87 115 gems $777 1,196 gems 10.38x 2026-11-05 19:25 UTC [★ Nomad Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · gold · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) Hidden $74.87 115 gems $777 1,196 gems 10.38x 2026-11-05 01:40 UTC [★ Nomad Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · gold · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) Hidden $74.87 115 gems $777 1,196 gems 10.38x 2026-11-04 21:51 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=threshold-case) [P90 | ScaraB Rush (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-scarab-rush-field-tested) Hidden $74.87 115 gems $9.50 14.62 gems 0.13x 2026-11-10 22:33 UTC [M4A4 | Desert-Strike (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desert-strike-minimal-wear) Hidden $74.87 115 gems $25.33 38.97 gems 0.34x 2026-11-10 22:33 UTC [M4A4 | Desert-Strike (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desert-strike-minimal-wear) Hidden $74.87 115 gems $25.33 38.97 gems 0.34x 2026-11-10 22:33 UTC [AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-head-shot-factory-new) [Helqxz](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Helqxz) $74.87 115 gems $100 154 gems 1.34x 2026-11-10 22:33 UTC [M4A1-S | Printstream (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-factory-new) Hidden $74.87 115 gems $416 640 gems 5.56x 2026-11-10 22:01 UTC [AWP | Wildfire (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-factory-new) Hidden $74.87 115 gems $161 248 gems 2.16x 2026-11-10 22:01 UTC [M4A4 | Desert-Strike (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desert-strike-minimal-wear) Hidden $74.87 115 gems $25.33 38.97 gems 0.34x 2026-11-10 22:01 UTC [USP-S | Printstream (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-printstream-minimal-wear) Hidden $74.87 115 gems $43.08 66.28 gems 0.58x 2026-11-10 22:01 UTC [P90 | ScaraB Rush (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-scarab-rush-field-tested) Hidden $74.87 115 gems $9.50 14.62 gems 0.13x 2026-11-10 22:01 UTC [M4A4 | Desert-Strike (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desert-strike-minimal-wear) [Helqxz](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Helqxz) $74.87 115 gems $25.33 38.97 gems 0.34x 2026-11-10 22:01 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $74.87 | 90.00% | 9 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed legendary 0.5% gold 1.5% covert 8.0% Ancient 25.0% red 15.0% #8847ff 25.0% classified 25.0% best hit $777 (10.38x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt