--- title: "Thunder And Lightning case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Thunder And Lightning ($165.94) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 6 items with odds, observed 79.77% over 172 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/thunder-and-lightning rendered: 2026-11-11T14:09Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Thunder And Lightning](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/thunder-and-lightning) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Thunder And Lightning A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/thunder-and-lightning?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/thunder-and-lightning?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/thunder-and-lightning) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/thunder-and-lightning?window=all) Price · $165.94 · 255 gems Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $149.35 from 6 items Observed RTP, 30d · 79.77% · 172 openings, odds method Variance · 1.0× · of price², per opening Tail share · 20.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 50.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 30 openings · below min 7 days · 81.39% ±15.53 160 openings 30 days · 79.77% ±14.98 172 openings since tracking started · 79.77% ±14.98 172 openings 64.0% 103.0% 142.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/thunder-and-lightning?window=24h) | 30 | 105.66% ±35.9 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/thunder-and-lightning?window=7d) | 160 | 81.39% ±15.5 | −1.1σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/thunder-and-lightning) | 172 | 79.77% ±15.0 | −1.3σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/thunder-and-lightning?window=all) | 172 | 79.77% ±15.0 | −1.3σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 172 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AWP \| Lightning Strike (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) | 20.0% | $439 676 gems | 58.8% | 31 | 34.4 | 0.90× | | [Desert Eagle \| Sunset Storm 弐 (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-sunset-storm-factory-new-2) | 30.0% | $194 299 gems | 39.0% | 44 | 51.6 | 0.85× | | [M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-factory-new) | 10.0% | $24.95 38.38 gems | 1.7% | 18 | 17.2 | 1.05× | | [Tec-9 \| Tornado (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-tornado-factory-new) | 10.0% | $5.31 8.17 gems | 0.4% | 21 | 17.2 | 1.22× | | [Sawed-Off \| Apocalypto (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-apocalypto-factory-new) | 15.0% | $1.41 2.17 gems | 0.1% | 31 | 25.8 | 1.20× | | [SCAR-20 \| Blueprint (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-blueprint-factory-new) | 15.0% | $0.25 0.39 gems | 0.0% | 27 | 25.8 | 1.05× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=thunder-and-lightning) [Sawed-Off | Apocalypto (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-apocalypto-factory-new) Hidden $166 255 gems $1.41 2.17 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 10:42 UTC [Desert Eagle | Sunset Storm 弐 (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-sunset-storm-factory-new-2) Hidden $166 255 gems $194 299 gems 1.17x 2026-11-11 10:42 UTC [SCAR-20 | Blueprint (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-blueprint-factory-new) Hidden $166 255 gems $0.25 0.39 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 10:42 UTC [Desert Eagle | Sunset Storm 弐 (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-sunset-storm-factory-new-2) Hidden $166 255 gems $194 299 gems 1.17x 2026-11-11 10:42 UTC [Desert Eagle | Sunset Storm 弐 (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-sunset-storm-factory-new-2) Hidden $166 255 gems $194 299 gems 1.17x 2026-11-11 10:42 UTC [Desert Eagle | Sunset Storm 弐 (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-sunset-storm-factory-new-2) Hidden $166 255 gems $194 299 gems 1.17x 2026-11-11 10:42 UTC [AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) Hidden $166 255 gems $439 676 gems 2.65x 2026-11-11 10:42 UTC [Desert Eagle | Sunset Storm 弐 (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-sunset-storm-factory-new-2) Hidden $166 255 gems $194 299 gems 1.17x 2026-11-11 10:42 UTC [AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) Hidden $166 255 gems $439 676 gems 2.65x 2026-11-11 10:42 UTC [Desert Eagle | Sunset Storm 弐 (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-sunset-storm-factory-new-2) Hidden $166 255 gems $194 299 gems 1.17x 2026-11-11 10:42 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $166 | 90.00% | 6 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 20.0% restricted 45.0% classified 10.0% consumer 10.0% #4b69ff 15.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt