--- title: "Tilt Factory case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Tilt Factory ($18.13) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.99% from 9 items with odds, observed 85.13% over 1,128 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/tilt-factory rendered: 2026-11-11T19:21Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Tilt Factory](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/tilt-factory) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Tilt Factory A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/tilt-factory?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/tilt-factory?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/tilt-factory) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/tilt-factory?window=all) Price · $18.13 · 27.89 gems Advertised RTP · 89.99% · EV $16.31 from 9 items Observed RTP, 30d · 85.13% · 1,128 openings, odds method Variance · 1.2× · of price², per opening Tail share · 20.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 70.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 84.05% ±19.00 128 openings 7 days · 83.74% ±6.89 972 openings 30 days · 85.13% ±6.40 1,128 openings since tracking started · 85.13% ±6.40 1,128 openings 64.5% 84.0% 103.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/tilt-factory?window=24h) | 128 | 84.05% ±19.0 | −0.6σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/tilt-factory?window=7d) | 972 | 83.74% ±6.89 | −1.8σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/tilt-factory) | 1,128 | 85.13% ±6.40 | −1.5σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/tilt-factory?window=all) | 1,128 | 85.13% ±6.40 | −1.5σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,140 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Desert Eagle \| Heat Treated (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-heat-treated-factory-new) | 10.0% | $67.03 103 gems | 41.1% | 98 | 114.0 | 0.86× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Rust Coat (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-rust-coat-well-worn) | 10.0% | $35.80 55.07 gems | 21.9% | 113 | 114.0 | 0.99× | | [Sawed-Off \| Devourer (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-devourer-factory-new) | 10.0% | $21.03 32.36 gems | 12.9% | 119 | 114.0 | 1.04× | | [M4A4 \| Hellish (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellish-battle-scarred) | 10.0% | $15.13 23.28 gems | 9.3% | 112 | 114.0 | 0.98× | | [SG 553 \| Ultraviolet (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-ultraviolet-battle-scarred) | 10.0% | $10.83 16.66 gems | 6.6% | 114 | 114.0 | 1.00× | | [Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chromatic-aberration-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $5.35 8.23 gems | 3.3% | 118 | 114.0 | 1.04× | | [G3SG1 \| Dream Glade (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-dream-glade-factory-new) | 10.0% | $3.89 5.99 gems | 2.4% | 120 | 114.0 | 1.05× | | [MP9 \| Food Chain (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-food-chain-battle-scarred) | 10.0% | $2.34 3.6 gems | 1.4% | 120 | 114.0 | 1.05× | | [MP7 \| Just Smile (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-just-smile-minimal-wear) | 20.0% | $0.87 1.34 gems | 1.1% | 226 | 228.0 | 0.99× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=tilt-factory) [Galil AR | Chromatic Aberration (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chromatic-aberration-minimal-wear) Hidden $18.13 27.89 gems $5.35 8.23 gems 0.30x 2026-11-11 18:05 UTC [MP7 | Just Smile (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-just-smile-minimal-wear) Hidden $18.13 27.89 gems $0.87 1.34 gems 0.05x 2026-11-11 18:05 UTC [MP7 | Just Smile (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-just-smile-minimal-wear) Hidden $18.13 27.89 gems $0.87 1.34 gems 0.05x 2026-11-11 18:05 UTC [Desert Eagle | Heat Treated (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-heat-treated-factory-new) Hidden $18.13 27.89 gems $67.03 103 gems 3.70x 2026-11-11 18:05 UTC [MP7 | Just Smile (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-just-smile-minimal-wear) Hidden $18.13 27.89 gems $0.87 1.34 gems 0.05x 2026-11-11 18:05 UTC [G3SG1 | Dream Glade (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-dream-glade-factory-new) [Pielenhofer](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Pielenhofer) $18.13 27.89 gems $3.89 5.99 gems 0.21x 2026-11-11 18:05 UTC [Galil AR | Chromatic Aberration (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chromatic-aberration-minimal-wear) Hidden $18.13 27.89 gems $5.35 8.23 gems 0.30x 2026-11-11 18:05 UTC [Sawed-Off | Devourer (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-devourer-factory-new) Hidden $18.13 27.89 gems $21.03 32.36 gems 1.16x 2026-11-11 18:05 UTC [Desert Eagle | Heat Treated (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-heat-treated-factory-new) Hidden $18.13 27.89 gems $67.03 103 gems 3.70x 2026-11-11 18:05 UTC [SG 553 | Ultraviolet (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-ultraviolet-battle-scarred) Hidden $18.13 27.89 gems $10.83 16.66 gems 0.60x 2026-11-11 18:05 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $18.13 | 89.99% | 9 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed pink 20.0% covert knife 10.0% classified 10.0% Classified 10.0% #4b69ff 10.0% Legendary 10.0% Mythical 10.0% violet 20.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.99 on average: an expected loss of $10.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt