--- title: "Tip of the Iceberg case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Tip of the Iceberg ($97.41) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 10 items with odds, observed 88.85% over 200 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/tip-of-the-iceberg rendered: 2026-11-12T19:14Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Tip of the Iceberg](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/tip-of-the-iceberg) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Tip of the Iceberg A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/tip-of-the-iceberg?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/tip-of-the-iceberg?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/tip-of-the-iceberg) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/tip-of-the-iceberg?window=all) Price · $97.41 · 150 gems Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $87.67 from 10 items Observed RTP, 30d · 88.85% · 200 openings, odds method Variance · 5.4× · of price², per opening Tail share · 10.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 70.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 4 openings · below min 7 days · 85.05% ±39.62 132 openings 30 days · 88.85% ±32.19 200 openings since tracking started · 88.85% ±32.19 200 openings -0.5% 115.0% 230.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/tip-of-the-iceberg?window=24h) | 4 | 2.16% ±227.6 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/tip-of-the-iceberg?window=7d) | 132 | 85.05% ±39.6 | −0.2σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/tip-of-the-iceberg) | 200 | 88.85% ±32.2 | −0.1σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/tip-of-the-iceberg?window=all) | 200 | 88.85% ±32.2 | −0.1σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 200 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AWP \| Medusa (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $2,484 3,821 gems | 14.2% | 0 | 1.0 | — | | [M4A4 \| Poseidon (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $1,205 1,853 gems | 13.7% | 2 | 2.0 | 1.00× | | [AK-47 \| Vulcan (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-factory-new) | 1 in 29 | $477 733 gems | 19.0% | 12 | 7.0 | 1.71× | | [Negev \| Anodized Navy (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-anodized-navy-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $178 274 gems | 10.2% | 13 | 10.0 | 1.30× | | [P90 \| Astral Jörmungandr (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-astral-jormungandr-factory-new) | 10.0% | $130 200 gems | 14.8% | 20 | 20.0 | 1.00× | | [★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Bright Water (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bowie-knife-bright-water-factory-new) | 10.0% | $116 179 gems | 13.3% | 16 | 20.0 | 0.80× | | [★ Falchion Knife \| Bright Water (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-bright-water-factory-new) | 10.0% | $91.71 141 gems | 10.5% | 18 | 20.0 | 0.90× | | [AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-factory-new) | 10.0% | $30.92 47.57 gems | 3.5% | 19 | 20.0 | 0.95× | | [Sawed-Off \| Serenity (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-serenity-factory-new) | 15.0% | $3.70 5.69 gems | 0.6% | 37 | 30.0 | 1.23× | | [SCAR-20 \| Assault (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-assault-factory-new) | 35.0% | $0.51 0.79 gems | 0.2% | 63 | 70.0 | 0.90× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 12 Nov, 19:02 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [M4A4 | Poseidon (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-factory-new) Hidden $97.41 150 gems $1,205 1,853 gems 12.37x 2026-11-11 10:42 UTC [M4A4 | Poseidon (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-factory-new) [Armands Miesnieks](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Armands%20Miesnieks) $97.41 150 gems $1,205 1,853 gems 12.37x 2026-11-10 13:49 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=tip-of-the-iceberg) [SCAR-20 | Assault (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-assault-factory-new) Hidden $97.41 150 gems $0.51 0.79 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 23:11 UTC [Sawed-Off | Serenity (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-serenity-factory-new) Hidden $97.41 150 gems $3.70 5.69 gems 0.04x 2026-11-11 23:11 UTC [SCAR-20 | Assault (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-assault-factory-new) Hidden $97.41 150 gems $0.51 0.79 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 23:11 UTC [Sawed-Off | Serenity (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-serenity-factory-new) Hidden $97.41 150 gems $3.70 5.69 gems 0.04x 2026-11-11 23:11 UTC [Sawed-Off | Serenity (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-serenity-factory-new) Hidden $97.41 150 gems $3.70 5.69 gems 0.04x 2026-11-11 12:30 UTC [Sawed-Off | Serenity (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-serenity-factory-new) Hidden $97.41 150 gems $3.70 5.69 gems 0.04x 2026-11-11 12:30 UTC [SCAR-20 | Assault (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-assault-factory-new) Hidden $97.41 150 gems $0.51 0.79 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 12:30 UTC [Sawed-Off | Serenity (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-serenity-factory-new) Hidden $97.41 150 gems $3.70 5.69 gems 0.04x 2026-11-11 12:30 UTC [AK-47 | Vulcan (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-factory-new) Hidden $97.41 150 gems $477 733 gems 4.89x 2026-11-11 12:30 UTC [Sawed-Off | Serenity (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-serenity-factory-new) [FarelEnergy skinbet.gg](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/FarelEnergy%20skinbet.gg) $97.41 150 gems $3.70 5.69 gems 0.04x 2026-11-11 12:30 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $97.41 | 90.00% | 10 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 4.0% classified 11.0% #4b69ff 5.0% restricted 25.0% Covert 10.0% covert knife 10.0% Rare 35.0% best hit $1,205 (12.37x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt