--- title: "Toss Up case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Toss Up ($46.86) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 9 items with odds, observed 88.24% over 1,034 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/toss-up rendered: 2026-11-11T13:52Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Toss Up](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/toss-up) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Toss Up A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/toss-up?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/toss-up?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/toss-up) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/toss-up?window=all) Price · $46.86 · 72.09 gems Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $42.17 from 9 items Observed RTP, 30d · 88.24% · 1,034 openings, odds method Variance · 9.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 40 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 90.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 88.11% ±38.48 235 openings 7 days · 89.55% ±19.24 940 openings 30 days · 88.24% ±18.34 1,034 openings since tracking started · 88.24% ±18.34 1,034 openings 49.0% 88.0% 127.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/toss-up?window=24h) | 235 | 88.11% ±38.5 | −0.1σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/toss-up?window=7d) | 940 | 89.55% ±19.2 | −0.0σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/toss-up) | 1,034 | 88.24% ±18.3 | −0.2σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/toss-up?window=all) | 1,034 | 88.24% ±18.3 | −0.2σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,054 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AWP \| LongDog (Factory New) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-longdog-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $865 1,331 gems | 51.3% | 23 | 26.4 | 0.87× | | [AWP \| LongDog (Minimal Wear) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-longdog-minimal-wear) | 1 in 40 | $284 438 gems | 16.9% | 29 | 26.4 | 1.10× | | [AWP \| The End (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-end-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $169 259 gems | 10.0% | 30 | 26.4 | 1.14× | | [AWP \| Crakow! (Minimal Wear) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-crakow-minimal-wear) | 1 in 40 | $54.24 83.44 gems | 3.2% | 29 | 26.4 | 1.10× | | [AWP \| Ice Coaled (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-ice-coaled-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $37.42 57.57 gems | 4.4% | 56 | 52.7 | 1.06× | | [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-field-tested) | 10.0% | $22.43 34.51 gems | 5.3% | 109 | 105.4 | 1.03× | | [AWP \| Exothermic (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-exothermic-minimal-wear) | 15.0% | $12.01 18.48 gems | 4.3% | 152 | 158.1 | 0.96× | | [AWP \| Duality (Minimal Wear) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-duality-minimal-wear) | 30.0% | $4.07 6.26 gems | 2.9% | 302 | 316.2 | 0.96× | | [AWP \| Mortis (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-mortis-field-tested) | 30.0% | $2.42 3.72 gems | 1.7% | 324 | 316.2 | 1.02× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [AWP | LongDog (Factory New) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-longdog-factory-new) Hidden $46.86 72.09 gems $865 1,331 gems 18.46x 2026-11-11 04:53 UTC [AWP | LongDog (Factory New) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-longdog-factory-new) Hidden $46.86 72.09 gems $865 1,331 gems 18.46x 2026-11-10 19:34 UTC [AWP | LongDog (Factory New) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-longdog-factory-new) Hidden $46.86 72.09 gems $865 1,331 gems 18.46x 2026-11-10 19:30 UTC [AWP | LongDog (Factory New) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-longdog-factory-new) Hidden $46.86 72.09 gems $865 1,331 gems 18.46x 2026-11-10 18:28 UTC [AWP | LongDog (Factory New) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-longdog-factory-new) Hidden $46.86 72.09 gems $865 1,331 gems 18.46x 2026-11-10 14:58 UTC [AWP | LongDog (Factory New) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-longdog-factory-new) Hidden $46.86 72.09 gems $865 1,331 gems 18.46x 2026-11-09 23:21 UTC [AWP | LongDog (Factory New) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-longdog-factory-new) Hidden $46.86 72.09 gems $865 1,331 gems 18.46x 2026-11-09 22:08 UTC [AWP | LongDog (Factory New) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-longdog-factory-new) Hidden $46.86 72.09 gems $865 1,331 gems 18.46x 2026-11-09 19:33 UTC [AWP | LongDog (Factory New) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-longdog-factory-new) Hidden $46.86 72.09 gems $865 1,331 gems 18.46x 2026-11-09 12:40 UTC [AWP | LongDog (Factory New) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-longdog-factory-new) [conq](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/conq) $46.86 72.09 gems $865 1,331 gems 18.46x 2026-11-09 05:33 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=toss-up) [AWP | Mortis (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-mortis-field-tested) Hidden $46.86 72.09 gems $2.42 3.72 gems 0.05x 2026-11-11 10:45 UTC [AWP | Duality (Minimal Wear) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-duality-minimal-wear) Hidden $46.86 72.09 gems $4.07 6.26 gems 0.09x 2026-11-11 10:45 UTC [AWP | The End (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-end-factory-new) Hidden $46.86 72.09 gems $169 259 gems 3.60x 2026-11-11 10:45 UTC [AWP | Mortis (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-mortis-field-tested) [Daxo](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Daxo) $46.86 72.09 gems $2.42 3.72 gems 0.05x 2026-11-11 10:45 UTC [AWP | Duality (Minimal Wear) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-duality-minimal-wear) Hidden $46.86 72.09 gems $4.07 6.26 gems 0.09x 2026-11-11 10:40 UTC [AWP | Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-field-tested) Hidden $46.86 72.09 gems $22.43 34.51 gems 0.48x 2026-11-11 10:40 UTC [AWP | Duality (Minimal Wear) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-duality-minimal-wear) [Daxo](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Daxo) $46.86 72.09 gems $4.07 6.26 gems 0.09x 2026-11-11 10:40 UTC [AWP | Duality (Minimal Wear) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-duality-minimal-wear) Hidden $46.86 72.09 gems $4.07 6.26 gems 0.09x 2026-11-11 10:06 UTC [AWP | Mortis (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-mortis-field-tested) Hidden $46.86 72.09 gems $2.42 3.72 gems 0.05x 2026-11-11 10:06 UTC [AWP | Mortis (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-mortis-field-tested) Hidden $46.86 72.09 gems $2.42 3.72 gems 0.05x 2026-11-11 10:06 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $46.86 | 90.00% | 9 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed red 2.5% rare 5.0% Legendary 2.5% pink 5.0% covert 10.0% restricted 15.0% Classified 30.0% classified 30.0% best hit $865 (18.46x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt