--- title: "Tragedy case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Tragedy ($34.99) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.99% from 8 items with odds, observed 101.30% over 760 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/tragedy-official rendered: 2026-11-11T17:50Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Tragedy](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/tragedy-official) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Tragedy A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/tragedy-official?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/tragedy-official?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/tragedy-official) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/tragedy-official?window=all) Price · $34.99 · 53.83 gems Advertised RTP · 89.99% · EV $31.49 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 101.30% · 760 openings, odds method Variance · 5.2× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 13 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 80.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 56 openings · below min 7 days · 99.05% ±17.42 656 openings 30 days · 101.30% ±16.18 760 openings since tracking started · 101.30% ±16.18 760 openings 5.0% 65.3% 125.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/tragedy-official?window=24h) | 56 | 65.22% ±59.6 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/tragedy-official?window=7d) | 656 | 99.05% ±17.4 | +1.0σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/tragedy-official) | 760 | 101.30% ±16.2 | +1.4σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/tragedy-official?window=all) | 760 | 101.30% ±16.2 | +1.4σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 766 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-forest-ddpat-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $373 574 gems | 35.6% | 32 | 23.0 | 1.39× | | [AK-47 \| Panthera onca (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-panthera-onca-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $233 358 gems | 37.0% | 36 | 38.3 | 0.94× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Boreal Forest (Battle-Scarred) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-boreal-forest-battle-scarred) | 12.0% | $60.61 93.24 gems | 23.1% | 92 | 91.9 | 1.00× | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-rat-rod-well-worn) | 15.0% | $5.04 7.75 gems | 2.4% | 107 | 114.9 | 0.93× | | [StatTrak™ AWP \| Mortis (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-mortis-field-tested) | 15.0% | $2.74 4.22 gems | 1.3% | 124 | 114.9 | 1.08× | | [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Flashback (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-flashback-minimal-wear) | 15.0% | $0.94 1.44 gems | 0.4% | 115 | 114.9 | 1.00× | | [M4A1-S \| Flashback (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-flashback-well-worn) | 15.0% | $0.34 0.53 gems | 0.2% | 118 | 114.9 | 1.03× | | [StatTrak™ MAG-7 \| Heaven Guard (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mag-7-heaven-guard-field-tested) | 20.0% | $0.10 0.15 gems | 0.1% | 142 | 153.2 | 0.93× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=tragedy-official) [StatTrak™ USP-S | Flashback (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-flashback-minimal-wear) Hidden $34.99 53.83 gems $0.94 1.44 gems 0.03x 2026-11-11 12:36 UTC [StatTrak™ USP-S | Flashback (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-flashback-minimal-wear) Hidden $34.99 53.83 gems $0.94 1.44 gems 0.03x 2026-11-11 12:36 UTC [StatTrak™ USP-S | Flashback (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-flashback-minimal-wear) Hidden $34.99 53.83 gems $0.94 1.44 gems 0.03x 2026-11-11 12:36 UTC [StatTrak™ AWP | Mortis (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-mortis-field-tested) [FarelEnergy skinbet.gg](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/FarelEnergy%20skinbet.gg) $34.99 53.83 gems $2.74 4.22 gems 0.08x 2026-11-11 12:36 UTC [AK-47 | Panthera onca (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-panthera-onca-factory-new) Hidden $34.99 53.83 gems $233 358 gems 6.65x 2026-11-11 10:03 UTC [StatTrak™ USP-S | Flashback (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-flashback-minimal-wear) Hidden $34.99 53.83 gems $0.94 1.44 gems 0.03x 2026-11-11 10:03 UTC [StatTrak™ AWP | Mortis (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-mortis-field-tested) Hidden $34.99 53.83 gems $2.74 4.22 gems 0.08x 2026-11-11 10:03 UTC [StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Heaven Guard (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mag-7-heaven-guard-field-tested) Hidden $34.99 53.83 gems $0.10 0.15 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 10:03 UTC [StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Heaven Guard (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mag-7-heaven-guard-field-tested) Hidden $34.99 53.83 gems $0.10 0.15 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 10:03 UTC [StatTrak™ AK-47 | Rat Rod (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-rat-rod-well-worn) [BolpyFR](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/BolpyFR) $34.99 53.83 gems $5.04 7.75 gems 0.14x 2026-11-11 10:03 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $34.99 | 89.99% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed gold 3.0% classified 5.0% Immortal 12.0% Restricted 15.0% #d32ce6 15.0% restricted 15.0% #8847ff 15.0% #4b69ff 20.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.99 on average: an expected loss of $10.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt