--- title: "Train case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Train ($3.37) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.95% from 8 items with odds, observed 88.24% over 3,070 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/train rendered: 2026-11-11T13:26Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Train](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/train) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Train A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/train?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/train?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/train) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/train?window=all) Price · $3.37 · 5.19 gems Advertised RTP · 89.95% · EV $3.03 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 88.24% · 3,070 openings, odds method Variance · 1.5× · of price², per opening Tail share · 25.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 65.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 84.76% ±11.51 429 openings 7 days · 89.97% ±4.67 2,608 openings 30 days · 88.24% ±4.30 3,070 openings since tracking started · 88.24% ±4.30 3,070 openings 72.5% 84.7% 97.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/train?window=24h) | 429 | 84.76% ±11.5 | −0.9σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/train?window=7d) | 2,608 | 89.97% ±4.67 | +0.0σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/train) | 3,070 | 88.24% ±4.30 | −0.8σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/train?window=all) | 3,070 | 88.24% ±4.30 | −0.8σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,085 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [M4A4 \| Bullet Rain (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-bullet-rain-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $36.70 56.46 gems | 12.1% | 24 | 30.8 | 0.78× | | [MP7 \| Full Stop (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-full-stop-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $9.45 14.54 gems | 12.5% | 122 | 123.4 | 0.99× | | [Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mecha-industries-factory-new) | 10.0% | $5.95 9.16 gems | 19.6% | 323 | 308.5 | 1.05× | | [UMP-45 \| Momentum (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-momentum-factory-new) | 10.0% | $5.25 8.08 gems | 17.3% | 318 | 308.5 | 1.03× | | [Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-light-rail-factory-new) | 10.0% | $3.65 5.62 gems | 12.0% | 285 | 308.5 | 0.92× | | [Glock-18 \| Steel Disruption (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-steel-disruption-factory-new) | 10.0% | $2.61 4.01 gems | 8.6% | 329 | 308.5 | 1.07× | | [USP-S \| Lead Conduit (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-lead-conduit-factory-new) | 25.0% | $1.54 2.37 gems | 12.7% | 762 | 771.2 | 0.99× | | [P90 \| Traction (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-traction-factory-new) | 30.0% | $0.53 0.81 gems | 5.2% | 922 | 925.5 | 1.00× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=train) [P90 | Traction (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-traction-factory-new) Hidden $3.37 5.19 gems $0.53 0.81 gems 0.16x 2026-11-11 11:27 UTC [USP-S | Lead Conduit (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-lead-conduit-factory-new) Hidden $3.37 5.19 gems $1.54 2.37 gems 0.46x 2026-11-11 11:27 UTC [P90 | Traction (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-traction-factory-new) Hidden $3.37 5.19 gems $0.53 0.81 gems 0.16x 2026-11-11 11:27 UTC [USP-S | Lead Conduit (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-lead-conduit-factory-new) Hidden $3.37 5.19 gems $1.54 2.37 gems 0.46x 2026-11-11 11:27 UTC [P90 | Traction (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-traction-factory-new) Hidden $3.37 5.19 gems $0.53 0.81 gems 0.16x 2026-11-11 11:27 UTC [USP-S | Lead Conduit (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-lead-conduit-factory-new) [InHumAn\_EreCtiOns](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/InHumAn_EreCtiOns) $3.37 5.19 gems $1.54 2.37 gems 0.46x 2026-11-11 11:27 UTC [Glock-18 | Steel Disruption (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-steel-disruption-factory-new) Hidden $3.37 5.19 gems $2.61 4.01 gems 0.77x 2026-11-11 09:57 UTC [P90 | Traction (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-traction-factory-new) Hidden $3.37 5.19 gems $0.53 0.81 gems 0.16x 2026-11-11 09:57 UTC [UMP-45 | Momentum (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-momentum-factory-new) Hidden $3.37 5.19 gems $5.25 8.08 gems 1.56x 2026-11-11 09:57 UTC [P90 | Traction (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-traction-factory-new) Hidden $3.37 5.19 gems $0.53 0.81 gems 0.16x 2026-11-11 09:57 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $3.37 | 89.95% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 1.0% mil spec 59.0% classified 20.0% restricted 20.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.95 on average: an expected loss of $10.05 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt