--- title: "Treasure Map case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Treasure Map ($5.51) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.91% from 6 items with odds, observed 91.47% over 17.6K openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/treasure-map rendered: 2026-11-11T14:03Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Treasure Map](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/treasure-map) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Treasure Map A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/treasure-map?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/treasure-map?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/treasure-map) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/treasure-map?window=all) Price · $5.51 · 8.48 gems Advertised RTP · 89.91% · EV $4.96 from 6 items Observed RTP, 30d · 91.47% · 17.6K openings, odds method Variance · 44.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 100 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 96.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 107.87% ±23.64 3,080 openings 7 days · 90.10% ±10.51 15.6K openings 30 days · 91.47% ±9.88 17.6K openings since tracking started · 91.47% ±9.88 17.6K openings 79.0% 105.5% 132.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/treasure-map?window=24h) | 3,080 | 107.87% ±23.6 | +1.5σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/treasure-map?window=7d) | 15.6K | 90.10% ±10.5 | +0.0σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/treasure-map) | 17.6K | 91.47% ±9.88 | +0.3σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/treasure-map?window=all) | 17.6K | 91.47% ±9.88 | +0.3σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 17.8K openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Lore (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $359 552 gems | 72.3% | 185 | 178.3 | 1.04× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $98.41 151 gems | 19.9% | 161 | 178.3 | 0.90× | | [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $18.55 28.54 gems | 3.7% | 187 | 178.3 | 1.05× | | [Sticker \| Great Wave (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-great-wave-foil) | 1 in 100 | $6.88 10.59 gems | 1.4% | 166 | 178.3 | 0.93× | | [Desert Eagle \| Naga (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-naga-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $3.34 5.14 gems | 0.7% | 189 | 178.3 | 1.06× | | [MP9 \| Black Sand (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-black-sand-factory-new) | 95.0% | $0.10 0.16 gems | 2.0% | 16,945 | 16941.4 | 1.00× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Bowie Knife | Lore (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-lore-factory-new) Hidden $5.51 8.48 gems $359 552 gems 65.04x 2026-11-11 10:37 UTC [★ Bowie Knife | Lore (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-lore-factory-new) Hidden $5.51 8.48 gems $359 552 gems 65.04x 2026-11-11 09:51 UTC [★ Bowie Knife | Lore (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-lore-factory-new) Hidden $5.51 8.48 gems $359 552 gems 65.04x 2026-11-11 09:48 UTC [★ Bowie Knife | Lore (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-lore-factory-new) Hidden $5.51 8.48 gems $359 552 gems 65.04x 2026-11-11 09:01 UTC [★ Bowie Knife | Lore (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-lore-factory-new) Hidden $5.51 8.48 gems $359 552 gems 65.04x 2026-11-11 06:49 UTC [★ Bowie Knife | Lore (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-lore-factory-new) Hidden $5.51 8.48 gems $359 552 gems 65.04x 2026-11-11 04:30 UTC [★ Bowie Knife | Lore (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-lore-factory-new) Hidden $5.51 8.48 gems $359 552 gems 65.04x 2026-11-11 04:06 UTC [★ Bowie Knife | Lore (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-lore-factory-new) Hidden $5.51 8.48 gems $359 552 gems 65.04x 2026-11-11 02:01 UTC [★ Bowie Knife | Lore (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-lore-factory-new) Hidden $5.51 8.48 gems $359 552 gems 65.04x 2026-11-11 01:46 UTC [★ Bowie Knife | Lore (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-lore-factory-new) Hidden $5.51 8.48 gems $359 552 gems 65.04x 2026-11-11 01:42 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=treasure-map) [MP9 | Black Sand (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-black-sand-factory-new) Hidden $5.51 8.48 gems $0.10 0.16 gems 0.02x 2026-11-11 13:44 UTC [MP9 | Black Sand (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-black-sand-factory-new) Hidden $5.51 8.48 gems $0.10 0.16 gems 0.02x 2026-11-11 13:44 UTC [MP9 | Black Sand (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-black-sand-factory-new) Hidden $5.51 8.48 gems $0.10 0.16 gems 0.02x 2026-11-11 13:44 UTC [MP9 | Black Sand (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-black-sand-factory-new) Hidden $5.51 8.48 gems $0.10 0.16 gems 0.02x 2026-11-11 13:44 UTC [MP9 | Black Sand (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-black-sand-factory-new) Hidden $5.51 8.48 gems $0.10 0.16 gems 0.02x 2026-11-11 13:44 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-lore-field-tested) [Alboholics](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Alboholics) $5.51 8.48 gems $98.41 151 gems 17.85x 2026-11-11 13:44 UTC [MP9 | Black Sand (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-black-sand-factory-new) Hidden $5.51 8.48 gems $0.10 0.16 gems 0.02x 2026-11-11 13:33 UTC [MP9 | Black Sand (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-black-sand-factory-new) Hidden $5.51 8.48 gems $0.10 0.16 gems 0.02x 2026-11-11 13:33 UTC [MP9 | Black Sand (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-black-sand-factory-new) Hidden $5.51 8.48 gems $0.10 0.16 gems 0.02x 2026-11-11 13:33 UTC [MP9 | Black Sand (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-black-sand-factory-new) Hidden $5.51 8.48 gems $0.10 0.16 gems 0.02x 2026-11-11 13:33 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $5.51 | 89.91% | 6 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed Covert 1.0% covert 2.0% exotic 1.0% restricted 1.0% Rare 95.0% best hit $359 (65.04x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.91 on average: an expected loss of $10.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt