--- title: "Trick or Treat case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Trick or Treat ($14.55) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.97% from 9 items with odds, observed 96.43% over 2,382 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/trick-or-treat rendered: 2026-11-11T23:08Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Trick or Treat](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/trick-or-treat) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Trick or Treat A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/trick-or-treat?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/trick-or-treat?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/trick-or-treat) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/trick-or-treat?window=all) Price · $14.55 · 22.38 gems Advertised RTP · 89.97% · EV $13.09 from 9 items Observed RTP, 30d · 96.43% · 2,382 openings, odds method Variance · 2.7× · of price², per opening Tail share · 15.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 75.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 97.30% ±19.01 287 openings 7 days · 97.60% ±7.42 1,883 openings 30 days · 96.43% ±6.60 2,382 openings since tracking started · 96.43% ±6.60 2,382 openings 77.5% 97.2% 117.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/trick-or-treat?window=24h) | 287 | 97.30% ±19.0 | +0.8σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/trick-or-treat?window=7d) | 1,883 | 97.60% ±7.42 | +2.0σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/trick-or-treat) | 2,382 | 96.43% ±6.60 | +1.9σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/trick-or-treat?window=all) | 2,382 | 96.43% ±6.60 | +1.9σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,402 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $108 166 gems | 41.2% | 146 | 120.1 | 1.22× | | [USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-factory-new) | 10.0% | $34.47 53.03 gems | 26.3% | 236 | 240.2 | 0.98× | | [AWP \| Sun in Leo (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-sun-in-leo-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $15.00 23.07 gems | 11.5% | 219 | 240.2 | 0.91× | | [P250 \| Muertos (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-muertos-factory-new) | 10.0% | $10.04 15.44 gems | 7.7% | 251 | 240.2 | 1.04× | | [Tec-9 \| Hades (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-hades-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $7.35 11.3 gems | 5.6% | 227 | 240.2 | 0.95× | | [R8 Revolver \| Crimson Web (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-crimson-web-factory-new) | 10.0% | $4.92 7.57 gems | 3.8% | 256 | 240.2 | 1.07× | | [Glock-18 \| Wraiths (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-wraiths-factory-new) | 15.0% | $3.09 4.76 gems | 3.5% | 355 | 360.3 | 0.99× | | [P2000 \| Gnarled (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-factory-new) | 15.0% | $0.30 0.46 gems | 0.3% | 350 | 360.3 | 0.97× | | [Dual Berettas \| Mystic Conjunction (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-mystic-conjunction-minimal-wear) | 15.0% | $0.05 0.07 gems | 0.1% | 362 | 360.3 | 1.00× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=trick-or-treat) [Glock-18 | Wraiths (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-wraiths-factory-new) Hidden $14.55 22.38 gems $3.09 4.76 gems 0.21x 2026-11-11 20:32 UTC [Dual Berettas | Mystic Conjunction (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-mystic-conjunction-minimal-wear) [Valentinobond](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Valentinobond) $14.55 22.38 gems $0.05 0.07 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 20:32 UTC [Dual Berettas | Mystic Conjunction (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-mystic-conjunction-minimal-wear) Hidden $14.55 22.38 gems $0.05 0.07 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 20:30 UTC [USP-S | Monster Mashup (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-factory-new) [Valentinobond](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Valentinobond) $14.55 22.38 gems $34.47 53.03 gems 2.37x 2026-11-11 20:30 UTC [P250 | Muertos (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-muertos-factory-new) Hidden $14.55 22.38 gems $10.04 15.44 gems 0.69x 2026-11-11 19:21 UTC [USP-S | Monster Mashup (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-factory-new) Hidden $14.55 22.38 gems $34.47 53.03 gems 2.37x 2026-11-11 19:21 UTC [Dual Berettas | Mystic Conjunction (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-mystic-conjunction-minimal-wear) Hidden $14.55 22.38 gems $0.05 0.07 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 19:21 UTC [Glock-18 | Wraiths (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-wraiths-factory-new) Hidden $14.55 22.38 gems $3.09 4.76 gems 0.21x 2026-11-11 19:21 UTC [Glock-18 | Wraiths (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-wraiths-factory-new) Hidden $14.55 22.38 gems $3.09 4.76 gems 0.21x 2026-11-11 19:21 UTC [P250 | Muertos (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-muertos-factory-new) [https://kick.com/waxumfriendly](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/https%3A%2F%2Fkick.com%2Fwaxumfriendly) $14.55 22.38 gems $10.04 15.44 gems 0.69x 2026-11-11 19:21 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $14.55 | 89.97% | 9 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed classified 25.0% industrial 35.0% mil spec 10.0% blue 15.0% #4b69ff 15.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.97 on average: an expected loss of $10.03 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt