--- title: "Tryhard case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Tryhard ($53.40) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.99% from 10 items with odds, observed 64.04% over 150 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/tryhard rendered: 2026-11-11T22:03Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Tryhard](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/tryhard) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Tryhard A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/tryhard?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/tryhard?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/tryhard) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/tryhard?window=all) Price · $53.40 · 82.16 gems Advertised RTP · 89.99% · EV $48.06 from 10 items Observed RTP, 30d · 64.04% · 150 openings, odds method Variance · 5.7× · of price², per opening Tail share · 15.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 75.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 10 openings · below min 7 days · 77 openings · below min 30 days · 64.04% ±38.07 150 openings since tracking started · 64.04% ±38.07 150 openings -0.5% 99.3% 199.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/tryhard?window=24h) | 10 | 50.90% ±147.4 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/tryhard?window=7d) | 77 | 55.86% ±53.1 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/tryhard) | 150 | 64.04% ±38.1 | −1.3σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/tryhard?window=all) | 150 | 64.04% ±38.1 | −1.3σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 150 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AWP \| The Prince (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $2,139 3,291 gems | 4.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $1,563 2,404 gems | 6.5% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Creme Pinstripe (Factory New) gloves · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-creme-pinstripe-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $1,054 1,622 gems | 4.4% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $649 999 gems | 6.8% | 0 | 0.8 | — | | [AK-47 \| Aphrodite (Factory New) weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aphrodite-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $332 511 gems | 13.8% | 2 | 3.0 | 0.67× | | [Desert Eagle \| Fennec Fox (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-fennec-fox-battle-scarred) | 1 in 50 | $208 320 gems | 8.6% | 2 | 3.0 | 0.67× | | [USP-S \| The Traitor (Factory New) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-the-traitor-factory-new) | 10.0% | $105 161 gems | 21.7% | 16 | 15.0 | 1.07× | | [Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Field-Tested) weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gamma-doppler-field-tested) | 10.0% | $56.99 87.68 gems | 11.9% | 18 | 15.0 | 1.20× | | [FAMAS \| Commemoration (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-commemoration-minimal-wear) | 20.0% | $22.80 35.08 gems | 9.5% | 24 | 30.0 | 0.80× | | [P90 \| Trigon (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-trigon-minimal-wear) | 55.0% | $10.78 16.59 gems | 12.3% | 88 | 82.5 | 1.07× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=tryhard) [P90 | Trigon (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-trigon-minimal-wear) Hidden $53.40 82.16 gems $10.78 16.59 gems 0.20x 2026-11-11 16:40 UTC [USP-S | The Traitor (Factory New) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-the-traitor-factory-new) Hidden $53.40 82.16 gems $105 161 gems 1.96x 2026-11-11 16:40 UTC [Glock-18 | Gamma Doppler (Field-Tested) weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gamma-doppler-field-tested) Hidden $53.40 82.16 gems $56.99 87.68 gems 1.07x 2026-11-11 16:40 UTC [P90 | Trigon (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-trigon-minimal-wear) [farlopero peek](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/farlopero%20peek) $53.40 82.16 gems $10.78 16.59 gems 0.20x 2026-11-11 16:40 UTC [P90 | Trigon (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-trigon-minimal-wear) Hidden $53.40 82.16 gems $10.78 16.59 gems 0.20x 2026-11-11 10:42 UTC [P90 | Trigon (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-trigon-minimal-wear) Hidden $53.40 82.16 gems $10.78 16.59 gems 0.20x 2026-11-11 10:42 UTC [FAMAS | Commemoration (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-commemoration-minimal-wear) Hidden $53.40 82.16 gems $22.80 35.08 gems 0.43x 2026-11-11 10:42 UTC [P90 | Trigon (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-trigon-minimal-wear) Hidden $53.40 82.16 gems $10.78 16.59 gems 0.20x 2026-11-11 10:42 UTC [FAMAS | Commemoration (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-commemoration-minimal-wear) Hidden $53.40 82.16 gems $22.80 35.08 gems 0.43x 2026-11-11 10:42 UTC [P90 | Trigon (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-trigon-minimal-wear) [rami](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/rami) $53.40 82.16 gems $10.78 16.59 gems 0.20x 2026-11-11 10:42 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $53.40 | 89.99% | 10 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 20.8% #eb4b4b 12.2% #d32ee6 2.0% Ancient 10.0% Legendary 55.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.99 on average: an expected loss of $10.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt