--- title: "Tsunami case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Tsunami ($49.04) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 8 items with odds, observed 80.91% over 1,694 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/tsunami rendered: 2026-11-11T22:45Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Tsunami](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/tsunami) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Tsunami A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/tsunami?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/tsunami?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/tsunami) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/tsunami?window=all) Price · $49.04 · 75.44 gems Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $44.13 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 80.91% · 1,694 openings, odds method Variance · 9.2× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 20 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 90.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 70.38% ±51.38 134 openings 7 days · 78.45% ±15.57 1,459 openings 30 days · 80.91% ±14.45 1,694 openings since tracking started · 80.91% ±14.45 1,694 openings 18.5% 70.5% 122.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/tsunami?window=24h) | 134 | 70.38% ±51.4 | −0.7σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/tsunami?window=7d) | 1,459 | 78.45% ±15.6 | −1.5σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/tsunami) | 1,694 | 80.91% ±14.5 | −1.2σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/tsunami?window=all) | 1,694 | 80.91% ±14.5 | −1.2σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,727 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Bright Water (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-bright-water-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $688 1,059 gems | 78.0% | 78 | 86.3 | 0.90× | | [P2000 \| Ocean Foam (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-ocean-foam-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $75.62 116 gems | 8.6% | 82 | 86.3 | 0.95× | | [AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aquamarine-revenge-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $44.43 68.36 gems | 5.0% | 71 | 86.3 | 0.82× | | [M4A1-S \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-bright-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $18.30 28.15 gems | 2.1% | 94 | 86.3 | 1.09× | | [AUG \| Momentum (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-momentum-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $12.07 18.57 gems | 1.4% | 87 | 86.3 | 1.01× | | [Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-water-elemental-factory-new) | 25.0% | $6.38 9.81 gems | 3.6% | 421 | 431.7 | 0.98× | | [G3SG1 \| High Seas (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-high-seas-factory-new) | 25.0% | $1.48 2.27 gems | 0.8% | 439 | 431.7 | 1.02× | | [Galil AR \| Crimson Tsunami (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-crimson-tsunami-factory-new) | 25.0% | $0.98 1.51 gems | 0.6% | 455 | 431.8 | 1.05× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Butterfly Knife | Bright Water (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-bright-water-factory-new) [FarelEnergy skinbet.gg](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/FarelEnergy%20skinbet.gg) $49.04 75.44 gems $688 1,059 gems 14.03x 2026-11-11 17:14 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Bright Water (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-bright-water-factory-new) Hidden $49.04 75.44 gems $688 1,059 gems 14.03x 2026-11-11 16:40 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Bright Water (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-bright-water-factory-new) Hidden $49.04 75.44 gems $688 1,059 gems 14.03x 2026-11-11 13:21 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Bright Water (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-bright-water-factory-new) Hidden $49.04 75.44 gems $688 1,059 gems 14.03x 2026-11-11 13:21 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Bright Water (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-bright-water-factory-new) Hidden $49.04 75.44 gems $688 1,059 gems 14.03x 2026-11-11 08:27 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Bright Water (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-bright-water-factory-new) Hidden $49.04 75.44 gems $688 1,059 gems 14.03x 2026-11-10 21:41 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Bright Water (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-bright-water-factory-new) Hidden $49.04 75.44 gems $688 1,059 gems 14.03x 2026-11-10 20:44 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Bright Water (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-bright-water-factory-new) Hidden $49.04 75.44 gems $688 1,059 gems 14.03x 2026-11-10 17:55 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Bright Water (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-bright-water-factory-new) [Drifters Hot Man Hands](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Drifters%20Hot%20Man%20Hands) $49.04 75.44 gems $688 1,059 gems 14.03x 2026-11-10 17:55 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Bright Water (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-bright-water-factory-new) Hidden $49.04 75.44 gems $688 1,059 gems 14.03x 2026-11-10 17:55 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=tsunami) [G3SG1 | High Seas (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-high-seas-factory-new) Hidden $49.04 75.44 gems $1.48 2.27 gems 0.03x 2026-11-11 21:41 UTC [M4A1-S | Bright Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-bright-water-minimal-wear) Hidden $49.04 75.44 gems $18.30 28.15 gems 0.37x 2026-11-11 21:41 UTC [P2000 | Ocean Foam (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-ocean-foam-factory-new) Hidden $49.04 75.44 gems $75.62 116 gems 1.54x 2026-11-11 21:41 UTC [Galil AR | Crimson Tsunami (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-crimson-tsunami-factory-new) Hidden $49.04 75.44 gems $0.98 1.51 gems 0.02x 2026-11-11 21:41 UTC [P2000 | Ocean Foam (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-ocean-foam-factory-new) Hidden $49.04 75.44 gems $75.62 116 gems 1.54x 2026-11-11 21:41 UTC [Galil AR | Crimson Tsunami (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-crimson-tsunami-factory-new) Hidden $49.04 75.44 gems $0.98 1.51 gems 0.02x 2026-11-11 21:41 UTC [Glock-18 | Water Elemental (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-water-elemental-factory-new) Hidden $49.04 75.44 gems $6.38 9.81 gems 0.13x 2026-11-11 19:07 UTC [G3SG1 | High Seas (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-high-seas-factory-new) Hidden $49.04 75.44 gems $1.48 2.27 gems 0.03x 2026-11-11 19:07 UTC [Galil AR | Crimson Tsunami (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-crimson-tsunami-factory-new) Hidden $49.04 75.44 gems $0.98 1.51 gems 0.02x 2026-11-11 19:07 UTC [Galil AR | Crimson Tsunami (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-crimson-tsunami-factory-new) Hidden $49.04 75.44 gems $0.98 1.51 gems 0.02x 2026-11-11 19:07 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $49.04 | 90.00% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 10.0% classified 35.0% restricted 55.0% best hit $688 (14.03x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt