--- title: "Undercover case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Undercover ($58.10) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.99% from 12 items with odds, observed 83.68% over 822 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/undercover rendered: 2026-11-11T13:21Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Undercover](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/undercover) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Undercover A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/undercover?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/undercover?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/undercover) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/undercover?window=all) Price · $58.10 · 89.39 gems Advertised RTP · 89.99% · EV $52.29 from 12 items Observed RTP, 30d · 83.68% · 822 openings, odds method Variance · 12.2× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 50 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 90.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 22 openings · below min 7 days · 88.98% ±27.36 625 openings 30 days · 83.68% ±23.86 822 openings since tracking started · 83.68% ±23.86 822 openings 14.5% 161.0% 307.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/undercover?window=24h) | 22 | 160.91% ±145.8 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/undercover?window=7d) | 625 | 88.98% ±27.4 | −0.1σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/undercover) | 822 | 83.68% ±23.9 | −0.5σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/undercover?window=all) | 822 | 83.68% ±23.9 | −0.5σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 822 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Nocts (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-nocts-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $1,420 2,185 gems | 54.3% | 14 | 16.4 | 0.85× | | [★ Stiletto Knife knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife) | 1 in 25 | $243 375 gems | 18.6% | 31 | 32.9 | 0.94× | | [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Printstream (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-printstream-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $153 235 gems | 11.7% | 37 | 32.9 | 1.13× | | [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Guardian (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-guardian-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $46.52 71.57 gems | 4.4% | 46 | 41.1 | 1.12× | | [USP-S \| Business Class (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-business-class-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $29.11 44.79 gems | 2.8% | 39 | 41.1 | 0.95× | | [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Briefing (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-briefing-factory-new) | 10.0% | $18.06 27.79 gems | 3.5% | 86 | 82.2 | 1.05× | | [USP-S \| Para Green (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-para-green-factory-new) | 10.0% | $11.24 17.29 gems | 2.1% | 86 | 82.2 | 1.05× | | [M4A1-S \| Basilisk (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-basilisk-factory-new) | 10.0% | $5.99 9.21 gems | 1.1% | 84 | 82.2 | 1.02× | | [MP5-SD \| Nitro (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-nitro-factory-new) | 10.0% | $4.61 7.09 gems | 0.9% | 81 | 82.2 | 0.99× | | [USP-S \| Cyrex (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cyrex-factory-new) | 10.0% | $1.55 2.38 gems | 0.3% | 83 | 82.2 | 1.01× | | [M4A1-S \| Mud-Spec (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-mud-spec-factory-new) | 10.0% | $0.60 0.93 gems | 0.1% | 76 | 82.2 | 0.92× | | [MP5-SD \| Co-Processor (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-co-processor-factory-new) | 20.0% | $0.24 0.37 gems | 0.1% | 159 | 164.4 | 0.97× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Sport Gloves | Nocts (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-nocts-factory-new) Hidden $58.10 89.39 gems $1,420 2,185 gems 24.44x 2026-11-11 05:33 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Nocts (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-nocts-factory-new) [googlynogly](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/googlynogly) $58.10 89.39 gems $1,420 2,185 gems 24.44x 2026-11-10 04:16 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Nocts (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-nocts-factory-new) Hidden $58.10 89.39 gems $1,420 2,185 gems 24.44x 2026-11-09 22:53 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Nocts (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-nocts-factory-new) Hidden $58.10 89.39 gems $1,420 2,185 gems 24.44x 2026-11-09 22:52 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Nocts (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-nocts-factory-new) [Ravageuz](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Ravageuz) $58.10 89.39 gems $1,420 2,185 gems 24.44x 2026-11-09 18:37 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Nocts (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-nocts-factory-new) Hidden $58.10 89.39 gems $1,420 2,185 gems 24.44x 2026-11-09 04:05 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Nocts (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-nocts-factory-new) Hidden $58.10 89.39 gems $1,420 2,185 gems 24.44x 2026-11-07 13:58 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Nocts (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-nocts-factory-new) Hidden $58.10 89.39 gems $1,420 2,185 gems 24.44x 2026-11-07 13:43 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Nocts (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-nocts-factory-new) Hidden $58.10 89.39 gems $1,420 2,185 gems 24.44x 2026-11-07 13:33 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Nocts (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-nocts-factory-new) Hidden $58.10 89.39 gems $1,420 2,185 gems 24.44x 2026-11-07 09:41 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=undercover) [M4A1-S | Basilisk (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-basilisk-factory-new) Hidden $58.10 89.39 gems $5.99 9.21 gems 0.10x 2026-11-11 05:33 UTC [M4A1-S | Mud-Spec (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-mud-spec-factory-new) Hidden $58.10 89.39 gems $0.60 0.93 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 05:33 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Nocts (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-nocts-factory-new) Hidden $58.10 89.39 gems $1,420 2,185 gems 24.44x 2026-11-11 05:33 UTC [USP-S | Business Class (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-business-class-factory-new) Hidden $58.10 89.39 gems $29.11 44.79 gems 0.50x 2026-11-11 05:33 UTC [MP5-SD | Co-Processor (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-co-processor-factory-new) Hidden $58.10 89.39 gems $0.24 0.37 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 05:33 UTC [★ Stiletto Knife knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife) [BolpyFR](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/BolpyFR) $58.10 89.39 gems $243 375 gems 4.19x 2026-11-11 05:33 UTC [★ Stiletto Knife knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife) Hidden $58.10 89.39 gems $243 375 gems 4.19x 2026-11-11 02:06 UTC [USP-S | Para Green (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-para-green-factory-new) Hidden $58.10 89.39 gems $11.24 17.29 gems 0.19x 2026-11-11 02:06 UTC [StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Briefing (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-briefing-factory-new) Hidden $58.10 89.39 gems $18.06 27.79 gems 0.31x 2026-11-11 02:06 UTC [USP-S | Cyrex (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cyrex-factory-new) [Beljit](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Beljit) $58.10 89.39 gems $1.55 2.38 gems 0.03x 2026-11-11 02:06 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $58.10 | 89.99% | 12 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed legendary 2.0% covert 4.0% Covert 4.0% classified 5.0% mil spec 35.0% industrial 20.0% restricted 20.0% Uncommon 10.0% best hit $1,420 (24.44x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.99 on average: an expected loss of $10.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt