--- title: "Underworld Arsenal case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Underworld Arsenal ($34.98) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.99% from 10 items with odds, observed 98.88% over 1,070 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/underworld-arsenal rendered: 2026-11-11T20:07Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Underworld Arsenal](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/underworld-arsenal) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Underworld Arsenal A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/underworld-arsenal?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/underworld-arsenal?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/underworld-arsenal) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/underworld-arsenal?window=all) Price · $34.98 · 53.81 gems Advertised RTP · 89.99% · EV $31.47 from 10 items Observed RTP, 30d · 98.88% · 1,070 openings, odds method Variance · 10.5× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 20 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 85.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 82 openings · below min 7 days · 101.73% ±21.41 876 openings 30 days · 98.88% ±19.37 1,070 openings since tracking started · 98.88% ±19.37 1,070 openings 54.5% 125.3% 196.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/underworld-arsenal?window=24h) | 82 | 125.38% ±70.0 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/underworld-arsenal?window=7d) | 876 | 101.73% ±21.4 | +1.1σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/underworld-arsenal) | 1,070 | 98.88% ±19.4 | +0.9σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/underworld-arsenal?window=all) | 1,070 | 98.88% ±19.4 | +0.9σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,082 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Karambit \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $1,356 2,086 gems | 21.5% | 6 | 5.4 | 1.11× | | [SSG 08 \| Death Strike (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-death-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 67 | $435 670 gems | 20.8% | 18 | 16.2 | 1.11× | | [AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $195 300 gems | 18.6% | 36 | 32.5 | 1.11× | | [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $120 184 gems | 11.4% | 42 | 32.5 | 1.29× | | [M4A4 \| Hellfire (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellfire-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $38.33 58.97 gems | 8.5% | 83 | 75.7 | 1.10× | | [SSG 08 \| Death's Head (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-deaths-head-factory-new) | 10.0% | $23.39 35.98 gems | 7.4% | 110 | 108.2 | 1.02× | | [M4A4 \| Hellish (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellish-battle-scarred) | 10.0% | $9.46 14.56 gems | 3.0% | 108 | 108.2 | 1.00× | | [SSG 08 \| Bloodshot (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-bloodshot-battle-scarred) | 15.0% | $7.12 10.95 gems | 3.4% | 151 | 162.3 | 0.93× | | [UMP-45 \| Bone Pile (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-bone-pile-minimal-wear) | 25.0% | $4.99 7.67 gems | 4.0% | 291 | 270.5 | 1.08× | | [AWP \| Mortis (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-mortis-well-worn) | 25.0% | $1.81 2.78 gems | 1.4% | 237 | 270.5 | 0.88× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Karambit | Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-slaughter-factory-new) Hidden $34.98 53.81 gems $1,356 2,086 gems 38.76x 2026-11-11 19:39 UTC [★ Karambit | Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-slaughter-factory-new) Hidden $34.98 53.81 gems $1,356 2,086 gems 38.76x 2026-11-10 05:53 UTC [★ Karambit | Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-slaughter-factory-new) Hidden $34.98 53.81 gems $1,356 2,086 gems 38.76x 2026-11-07 23:40 UTC [★ Karambit | Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-slaughter-factory-new) Hidden $34.98 53.81 gems $1,356 2,086 gems 38.76x 2026-11-07 23:15 UTC [★ Karambit | Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-slaughter-factory-new) [Daddy Croot](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Daddy%20Croot) $34.98 53.81 gems $1,356 2,086 gems 38.76x 2026-11-05 20:49 UTC [★ Karambit | Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-slaughter-factory-new) Hidden $34.98 53.81 gems $1,356 2,086 gems 38.76x 2026-11-05 01:51 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=underworld-arsenal) [SSG 08 | Bloodshot (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-bloodshot-battle-scarred) Hidden $34.98 53.81 gems $7.12 10.95 gems 0.20x 2026-11-11 19:55 UTC [M4A4 | Hellish (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellish-battle-scarred) Hidden $34.98 53.81 gems $9.46 14.56 gems 0.27x 2026-11-11 19:55 UTC [UMP-45 | Bone Pile (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-bone-pile-minimal-wear) Hidden $34.98 53.81 gems $4.99 7.67 gems 0.14x 2026-11-11 19:55 UTC [SSG 08 | Bloodshot (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-bloodshot-battle-scarred) Hidden $34.98 53.81 gems $7.12 10.95 gems 0.20x 2026-11-11 19:55 UTC [M4A4 | Hellish (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellish-battle-scarred) Hidden $34.98 53.81 gems $9.46 14.56 gems 0.27x 2026-11-11 19:55 UTC [AWP | Mortis (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-mortis-well-worn) [Boomer IV](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Boomer%20IV) $34.98 53.81 gems $1.81 2.78 gems 0.05x 2026-11-11 19:55 UTC [UMP-45 | Bone Pile (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-bone-pile-minimal-wear) Hidden $34.98 53.81 gems $4.99 7.67 gems 0.14x 2026-11-11 19:41 UTC [UMP-45 | Bone Pile (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-bone-pile-minimal-wear) Hidden $34.98 53.81 gems $4.99 7.67 gems 0.14x 2026-11-11 19:41 UTC [AWP | Mortis (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-mortis-well-worn) Hidden $34.98 53.81 gems $1.81 2.78 gems 0.05x 2026-11-11 19:41 UTC [UMP-45 | Bone Pile (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-bone-pile-minimal-wear) Hidden $34.98 53.81 gems $4.99 7.67 gems 0.14x 2026-11-11 19:41 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $34.98 | 89.99% | 10 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 6.5% classified 23.5% restricted 10.0% Classified 10.0% mil spec 25.0% pink 25.0% best hit $1,356 (38.76x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.99 on average: an expected loss of $10.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt