--- title: "Urban Warfare case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Urban Warfare ($5.10) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 8 items with odds, observed 84.81% over 3,331 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/urban-warfare rendered: 2026-11-11T22:00Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Urban Warfare](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/urban-warfare) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Urban Warfare A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/urban-warfare?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/urban-warfare?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/urban-warfare) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/urban-warfare?window=all) Price · $5.10 · 7.85 gems Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $4.59 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 84.81% · 3,331 openings, odds method Variance · 12.4× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 20 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 75.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 73.05% ±43.47 252 openings 7 days · 83.49% ±13.10 2,775 openings 30 days · 84.81% ±11.96 3,331 openings since tracking started · 84.81% ±11.96 3,331 openings 29.0% 73.0% 117.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/urban-warfare?window=24h) | 252 | 73.05% ±43.5 | −0.8σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/urban-warfare?window=7d) | 2,775 | 83.49% ±13.1 | −1.0σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/urban-warfare) | 3,331 | 84.81% ±12.0 | −0.9σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/urban-warfare?window=all) | 3,331 | 84.81% ±12.0 | −0.9σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,425 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Bayonet \| Urban Masked (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-urban-masked-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $283 436 gems | 12.3% | 5 | 6.8 | 0.73× | | [★ Nomad Knife \| Urban Masked (Field-Tested) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-urban-masked-field-tested) | 1 in 125 | $123 190 gems | 21.5% | 28 | 27.4 | 1.02× | | [M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-mecha-industries-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $35.83 55.13 gems | 31.2% | 134 | 137.0 | 0.98× | | [Tec-9 \| Fuel Injector (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-fuel-injector-factory-new) | 10.0% | $7.64 11.75 gems | 16.6% | 326 | 342.5 | 0.95× | | [Galil AR \| Urban Rubble (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-urban-rubble-factory-new) | 10.0% | $6.01 9.25 gems | 13.1% | 323 | 342.5 | 0.94× | | [M4A4 \| Urban DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-urban-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $2.11 3.25 gems | 2.3% | 181 | 171.2 | 1.06× | | [Dual Berettas \| Urban Shock (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-urban-shock-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $1.75 2.69 gems | 1.9% | 176 | 171.2 | 1.03× | | [PP-Bizon \| Urban Dashed (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-urban-dashed-factory-new) | 65.0% | $0.07 0.11 gems | 1.0% | 2,252 | 2226.3 | 1.01× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Bayonet | Urban Masked (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-urban-masked-factory-new) Hidden $5.10 7.85 gems $283 436 gems 55.55x 2026-11-10 07:13 UTC [★ Bayonet | Urban Masked (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-urban-masked-factory-new) Hidden $5.10 7.85 gems $283 436 gems 55.55x 2026-11-08 20:44 UTC [★ Bayonet | Urban Masked (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-urban-masked-factory-new) Hidden $5.10 7.85 gems $283 436 gems 55.55x 2026-11-05 16:21 UTC [★ Bayonet | Urban Masked (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-urban-masked-factory-new) Hidden $5.10 7.85 gems $283 436 gems 55.55x 2026-11-04 22:20 UTC [★ Bayonet | Urban Masked (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-urban-masked-factory-new) Hidden $5.10 7.85 gems $283 436 gems 55.55x 2026-11-04 02:16 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=urban-warfare) [Galil AR | Urban Rubble (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-urban-rubble-factory-new) Hidden $5.10 7.85 gems $6.01 9.25 gems 1.18x 2026-11-11 21:20 UTC [PP-Bizon | Urban Dashed (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-urban-dashed-factory-new) [AlpinLoot](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/AlpinLoot) $5.10 7.85 gems $0.07 0.11 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 21:20 UTC [PP-Bizon | Urban Dashed (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-urban-dashed-factory-new) Hidden $5.10 7.85 gems $0.07 0.11 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 20:57 UTC [PP-Bizon | Urban Dashed (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-urban-dashed-factory-new) Hidden $5.10 7.85 gems $0.07 0.11 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 20:57 UTC [M4A4 | Urban DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-urban-ddpat-factory-new) Hidden $5.10 7.85 gems $2.11 3.25 gems 0.41x 2026-11-11 20:57 UTC [Tec-9 | Fuel Injector (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-fuel-injector-factory-new) [Pertti Eräreikä](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Pertti%20Er%C3%A4reik%C3%A4) $5.10 7.85 gems $7.64 11.75 gems 1.50x 2026-11-11 20:57 UTC [PP-Bizon | Urban Dashed (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-urban-dashed-factory-new) Hidden $5.10 7.85 gems $0.07 0.11 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 20:46 UTC [Galil AR | Urban Rubble (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-urban-rubble-factory-new) Hidden $5.10 7.85 gems $6.01 9.25 gems 1.18x 2026-11-11 20:46 UTC [PP-Bizon | Urban Dashed (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-urban-dashed-factory-new) Hidden $5.10 7.85 gems $0.07 0.11 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 20:46 UTC [PP-Bizon | Urban Dashed (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-urban-dashed-factory-new) [colin](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/colin) $5.10 7.85 gems $0.07 0.11 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 20:46 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $5.10 | 90.00% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 4.2% Covert 0.8% classified 10.0% industrial 15.0% restricted 5.0% Consumer Grade 65.0% best hit $283 (55.55x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt