--- title: "VAC Live case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "VAC Live ($6.98) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.98% from 12 items with odds, observed 90.86% over 9,868 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/vac-live rendered: 2026-11-11T19:49Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [VAC Live](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/vac-live) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · VAC Live A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/vac-live?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/vac-live?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/vac-live) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/vac-live?window=all) Price · $6.98 · 10.74 gems Advertised RTP · 89.98% · EV $6.28 from 12 items Observed RTP, 30d · 90.86% · 9,868 openings, odds method Variance · 22.7× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 63 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 95.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 125.54% ±31.55 878 openings 7 days · 89.19% ±10.03 8,684 openings 30 days · 90.86% ±9.41 9,868 openings since tracking started · 90.86% ±9.41 9,868 openings 78.5% 118.0% 157.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/vac-live?window=24h) | 878 | 125.54% ±31.5 | +2.2σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/vac-live?window=7d) | 8,684 | 89.19% ±10.0 | −0.2σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/vac-live) | 9,868 | 90.86% ±9.41 | +0.2σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/vac-live?window=all) | 9,868 | 90.86% ±9.41 | +0.2σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 10.1K openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Souvenir SG 553 \| Integrale (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-sg-553-integrale-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $748 1,150 gems | 11.9% | 12 | 10.1 | 1.19× | | [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Crimson Web (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $213 328 gems | 17.0% | 52 | 50.3 | 1.03× | | [G3SG1 \| Chronos (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-chronos-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $171 263 gems | 13.6% | 53 | 50.3 | 1.05× | | [SG 553 \| Hazard Pay (Factory New) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-hazard-pay-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $136 209 gems | 10.8% | 59 | 50.3 | 1.17× | | [G3SG1 \| Arctic Camo (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-arctic-camo-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $84.03 129 gems | 13.4% | 92 | 100.7 | 0.91× | | [Desert Eagle \| Cobalt Disruption (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-cobalt-disruption-factory-new) | 1 in 42 | $45.50 70 gems | 17.4% | 198 | 241.6 | 0.82× | | [SG 553 \| Colony IV (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-colony-iv-field-tested) | 10.0% | $5.27 8.11 gems | 8.4% | 981 | 1006.7 | 0.97× | | [SCAR-20 \| Bloodsport (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-bloodsport-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $2.45 3.77 gems | 3.9% | 1,029 | 1006.7 | 1.02× | | [SCAR-20 \| Storm (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-storm-well-worn) | 10.0% | $1.64 2.52 gems | 2.6% | 979 | 1006.7 | 0.97× | | [SCAR-20 \| Enforcer (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-enforcer-field-tested) | 20.0% | $0.20 0.3 gems | 0.6% | 2,082 | 2013.4 | 1.03× | | [G3SG1 \| Green Apple (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-green-apple-minimal-wear) | 20.0% | $0.07 0.11 gems | 0.2% | 1,959 | 2013.4 | 0.97× | | [SG 553 \| Cyberforce (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-cyberforce-minimal-wear) | 25.0% | $0.06 0.09 gems | 0.2% | 2,571 | 2516.8 | 1.02× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Souvenir SG 553 | Integrale (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-sg-553-integrale-factory-new) Hidden $6.98 10.74 gems $748 1,150 gems 107.1x 2026-11-11 13:33 UTC [Souvenir SG 553 | Integrale (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-sg-553-integrale-factory-new) Hidden $6.98 10.74 gems $748 1,150 gems 107.1x 2026-11-11 01:51 UTC [Souvenir SG 553 | Integrale (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-sg-553-integrale-factory-new) Hidden $6.98 10.74 gems $748 1,150 gems 107.1x 2026-11-10 14:33 UTC [Souvenir SG 553 | Integrale (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-sg-553-integrale-factory-new) Hidden $6.98 10.74 gems $748 1,150 gems 107.1x 2026-11-10 11:20 UTC [Souvenir SG 553 | Integrale (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-sg-553-integrale-factory-new) Hidden $6.98 10.74 gems $748 1,150 gems 107.1x 2026-11-08 20:55 UTC [Souvenir SG 553 | Integrale (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-sg-553-integrale-factory-new) [Intux](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Intux) $6.98 10.74 gems $748 1,150 gems 107.1x 2026-11-08 03:04 UTC [Souvenir SG 553 | Integrale (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-sg-553-integrale-factory-new) Hidden $6.98 10.74 gems $748 1,150 gems 107.1x 2026-11-06 02:00 UTC [Souvenir SG 553 | Integrale (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-sg-553-integrale-factory-new) Hidden $6.98 10.74 gems $748 1,150 gems 107.1x 2026-11-05 19:38 UTC [Souvenir SG 553 | Integrale (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-sg-553-integrale-factory-new) Hidden $6.98 10.74 gems $748 1,150 gems 107.1x 2026-11-05 10:34 UTC [Souvenir SG 553 | Integrale (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-sg-553-integrale-factory-new) Hidden $6.98 10.74 gems $748 1,150 gems 107.1x 2026-11-04 13:07 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=vac-live) [G3SG1 | Chronos (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-chronos-factory-new) Hidden $6.98 10.74 gems $171 263 gems 24.44x 2026-11-11 19:46 UTC [SCAR-20 | Enforcer (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-enforcer-field-tested) Hidden $6.98 10.74 gems $0.20 0.3 gems 0.03x 2026-11-11 19:46 UTC [SG 553 | Cyberforce (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-cyberforce-minimal-wear) Hidden $6.98 10.74 gems $0.06 0.09 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 19:46 UTC [SCAR-20 | Bloodsport (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-bloodsport-minimal-wear) [AlpinLoot](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/AlpinLoot) $6.98 10.74 gems $2.45 3.77 gems 0.35x 2026-11-11 19:46 UTC [SG 553 | Colony IV (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-colony-iv-field-tested) Hidden $6.98 10.74 gems $5.27 8.11 gems 0.76x 2026-11-11 19:34 UTC [Desert Eagle | Cobalt Disruption (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-cobalt-disruption-factory-new) Hidden $6.98 10.74 gems $45.50 70 gems 6.52x 2026-11-11 19:34 UTC [SG 553 | Colony IV (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-colony-iv-field-tested) Hidden $6.98 10.74 gems $5.27 8.11 gems 0.76x 2026-11-11 19:34 UTC [SG 553 | Colony IV (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-colony-iv-field-tested) Hidden $6.98 10.74 gems $5.27 8.11 gems 0.76x 2026-11-11 19:34 UTC [G3SG1 | Green Apple (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-green-apple-minimal-wear) Hidden $6.98 10.74 gems $0.07 0.11 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 19:34 UTC [SCAR-20 | Bloodsport (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-bloodsport-minimal-wear) [...](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/...) $6.98 10.74 gems $2.45 3.77 gems 0.35x 2026-11-11 19:34 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $6.98 | 89.98% | 12 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed classified 22.5% restricted 1.0% Classified 0.5% industrial 21.0% consumer 10.0% Mythical 20.0% blue 25.0% best hit $748 (107.1x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.98 on average: an expected loss of $10.02 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt