--- title: "Vanilla‏‏‎ Dream case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Vanilla‏‏‎ Dream ($5.81) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.91% from 12 items with odds, observed 91.93% over 16K openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/vanilla-dreamy rendered: 2026-11-11T19:01Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Vanilla‏‏‎ Dream](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/vanilla-dreamy) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Vanilla‏‏‎ Dream A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/vanilla-dreamy?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/vanilla-dreamy?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/vanilla-dreamy) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/vanilla-dreamy?window=all) Price · $5.81 · 8.94 gems Advertised RTP · 89.91% · EV $5.22 from 12 items Observed RTP, 30d · 91.93% · 16K openings, odds method Variance · 110.6× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 333 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 98.9% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 1,123 openings · below min 7 days · 94.41% ±17.75 13.5K openings 30 days · 91.93% ±16.27 16K openings since tracking started · 91.93% ±16.27 16K openings 26.0% 88.0% 150.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/vanilla-dreamy?window=24h) | 1,123 | 88.08% ±61.5 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/vanilla-dreamy?window=7d) | 13.5K | 94.41% ±17.7 | +0.5σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/vanilla-dreamy) | 16K | 91.93% ±16.3 | +0.2σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/vanilla-dreamy?window=all) | 16K | 91.93% ±16.3 | +0.2σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 16.2K openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Butterfly Knife knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,184 1,821 gems | 22.7% | 21 | 16.2 | 1.30× | | [★ Karambit knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,184 1,821 gems | 22.7% | 16 | 16.2 | 0.99× | | [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet) | 1 in 1,000 | $673 1,035 gems | 12.9% | 16 | 16.2 | 0.99× | | [★ Skeleton Knife knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife) | 1 in 1,000 | $423 650 gems | 8.1% | 14 | 16.2 | 0.87× | | [★ Talon Knife knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife) | 1 in 1,000 | $292 450 gems | 5.6% | 17 | 16.2 | 1.05× | | [★ Bayonet knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet) | 1 in 1,000 | $278 427 gems | 5.3% | 13 | 16.2 | 0.80× | | [★ Nomad Knife knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife) | 1 in 1,000 | $246 378 gems | 4.7% | 11 | 16.2 | 0.68× | | [★ Kukri Knife knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/kukri-knife) | 1 in 1,000 | $204 314 gems | 3.9% | 10 | 16.2 | 0.62× | | [★ Classic Knife knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife) | 1 in 1,000 | $186 286 gems | 3.6% | 17 | 16.2 | 1.05× | | [★ Huntsman Knife knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife) | 1 in 1,000 | $128 197 gems | 2.4% | 13 | 16.2 | 0.80× | | [★ Falchion Knife knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife) | 1 in 1,000 | $106 164 gems | 2.0% | 18 | 16.2 | 1.11× | | [MAG-7 \| Navy Sheen (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-navy-sheen-factory-new) | 98.9% | $0.33 0.5 gems | 6.2% | 16,001 | 15989.2 | 1.00× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Butterfly Knife knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife) Hidden $5.81 8.94 gems $1,184 1,821 gems 203.7x 2026-11-11 13:57 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife) Hidden $5.81 8.94 gems $1,184 1,821 gems 203.7x 2026-11-11 11:58 UTC [★ Karambit knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit) [ILYA](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/ILYA) $5.81 8.94 gems $1,184 1,821 gems 203.7x 2026-11-10 20:44 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife) Hidden $5.81 8.94 gems $1,184 1,821 gems 203.7x 2026-11-10 17:51 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife) Hidden $5.81 8.94 gems $1,184 1,821 gems 203.7x 2026-11-10 15:03 UTC [★ Karambit knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit) Hidden $5.81 8.94 gems $1,184 1,821 gems 203.7x 2026-11-09 23:26 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife) Hidden $5.81 8.94 gems $1,184 1,821 gems 203.7x 2026-11-09 18:49 UTC [★ Karambit knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit) Hidden $5.81 8.94 gems $1,184 1,821 gems 203.7x 2026-11-09 15:21 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife) Hidden $5.81 8.94 gems $1,184 1,821 gems 203.7x 2026-11-09 08:44 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife) Hidden $5.81 8.94 gems $1,184 1,821 gems 203.7x 2026-11-09 06:53 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=vanilla-dreamy) [MAG-7 | Navy Sheen (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-navy-sheen-factory-new) Hidden $5.81 8.94 gems $0.33 0.5 gems 0.06x 2026-11-11 18:38 UTC [MAG-7 | Navy Sheen (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-navy-sheen-factory-new) Hidden $5.81 8.94 gems $0.33 0.5 gems 0.06x 2026-11-11 18:38 UTC [MAG-7 | Navy Sheen (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-navy-sheen-factory-new) Hidden $5.81 8.94 gems $0.33 0.5 gems 0.06x 2026-11-11 18:38 UTC [MAG-7 | Navy Sheen (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-navy-sheen-factory-new) Hidden $5.81 8.94 gems $0.33 0.5 gems 0.06x 2026-11-11 18:38 UTC [MAG-7 | Navy Sheen (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-navy-sheen-factory-new) Hidden $5.81 8.94 gems $0.33 0.5 gems 0.06x 2026-11-11 18:38 UTC [MAG-7 | Navy Sheen (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-navy-sheen-factory-new) Hidden $5.81 8.94 gems $0.33 0.5 gems 0.06x 2026-11-11 18:38 UTC [MAG-7 | Navy Sheen (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-navy-sheen-factory-new) Hidden $5.81 8.94 gems $0.33 0.5 gems 0.06x 2026-11-11 18:27 UTC [MAG-7 | Navy Sheen (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-navy-sheen-factory-new) Hidden $5.81 8.94 gems $0.33 0.5 gems 0.06x 2026-11-11 18:27 UTC [MAG-7 | Navy Sheen (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-navy-sheen-factory-new) Hidden $5.81 8.94 gems $0.33 0.5 gems 0.06x 2026-11-11 18:27 UTC [MAG-7 | Navy Sheen (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-navy-sheen-factory-new) Hidden $5.81 8.94 gems $0.33 0.5 gems 0.06x 2026-11-11 18:27 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $5.81 | 89.91% | 12 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 1.1% Common 98.9% best hit $1,184 (203.7x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.91 on average: an expected loss of $10.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt