--- title: "Velvet Vault case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Velvet Vault ($80.59) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 10 items with odds, observed 74.18% over 1,822 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/velvet-vault rendered: 2026-11-11T19:41Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Velvet Vault](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/velvet-vault) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Velvet Vault A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/velvet-vault?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/velvet-vault?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/velvet-vault) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/velvet-vault?window=all) Price · $80.59 · 124 gems Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $72.53 from 10 items Observed RTP, 30d · 74.18% · 1,822 openings, odds method Variance · 28.4× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 33 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 90.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 161 openings · below min 7 days · 76.71% ±27.14 1,479 openings 30 days · 74.18% ±24.45 1,822 openings since tracking started · 74.18% ±24.45 1,822 openings -0.5% 76.8% 154.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/velvet-vault?window=24h) | 161 | 71.26% ±82.3 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/velvet-vault?window=7d) | 1,479 | 76.71% ±27.1 | −1.0σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/velvet-vault) | 1,822 | 74.18% ±24.5 | −1.3σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/velvet-vault?window=all) | 1,822 | 74.18% ±24.5 | −1.3σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,866 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 400 | $7,654 11,776 gems | 26.4% | 3 | 4.7 | 0.64× | | [★ Driver Gloves \| Crimson Weave (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-crimson-weave-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $2,778 4,274 gems | 9.6% | 2 | 4.7 | 0.43× | | [M4A1-S \| Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $1,700 2,616 gems | 5.9% | 6 | 4.7 | 1.29× | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Crimson Web (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $927 1,427 gems | 3.2% | 4 | 4.7 | 0.86× | | [★ Karambit \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $678 1,043 gems | 18.7% | 28 | 37.3 | 0.75× | | [AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-red-laminate-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $351 540 gems | 9.7% | 37 | 37.3 | 0.99× | | [★ Skeleton Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $214 330 gems | 14.8% | 88 | 93.3 | 0.94× | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $75.71 116 gems | 5.2% | 102 | 93.3 | 1.09× | | [SCAR-20 \| Crimson Web (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-crimson-web-factory-new) | 15.0% | $16.93 26.05 gems | 3.5% | 291 | 279.9 | 1.04× | | [CZ75-Auto \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 70.0% | $3.22 4.96 gems | 3.1% | 1,305 | 1306.2 | 1.00× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $80.59 124 gems $7,654 11,776 gems 94.98x 2026-11-07 20:23 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) [ya wyrsych poldi](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/ya%20wyrsych%20poldi) $80.59 124 gems $7,654 11,776 gems 94.98x 2026-11-06 00:02 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $80.59 124 gems $7,654 11,776 gems 94.98x 2026-11-05 19:16 UTC [★ Driver Gloves | Crimson Weave (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-crimson-weave-factory-new) Hidden $80.59 124 gems $2,778 4,274 gems 34.47x 2026-11-10 16:40 UTC [★ Driver Gloves | Crimson Weave (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-crimson-weave-factory-new) Hidden $80.59 124 gems $2,778 4,274 gems 34.47x 2026-11-05 05:47 UTC [M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) [Energetic Lion](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Energetic%20Lion) $80.59 124 gems $1,700 2,616 gems 21.10x 2026-11-11 10:16 UTC [M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) [motsibaerli](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/motsibaerli) $80.59 124 gems $1,700 2,616 gems 21.10x 2026-11-08 13:31 UTC [M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) [motsibaerli](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/motsibaerli) $80.59 124 gems $1,700 2,616 gems 21.10x 2026-11-08 13:28 UTC [M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) Hidden $80.59 124 gems $1,700 2,616 gems 21.10x 2026-11-06 23:06 UTC [M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) Hidden $80.59 124 gems $1,700 2,616 gems 21.10x 2026-11-04 02:18 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=velvet-vault) [CZ75-Auto | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-crimson-web-minimal-wear) Hidden $80.59 124 gems $3.22 4.96 gems 0.04x 2026-11-11 19:00 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-crimson-web-minimal-wear) Hidden $80.59 124 gems $3.22 4.96 gems 0.04x 2026-11-11 19:00 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-crimson-web-minimal-wear) Hidden $80.59 124 gems $3.22 4.96 gems 0.04x 2026-11-11 19:00 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-crimson-web-minimal-wear) Hidden $80.59 124 gems $3.22 4.96 gems 0.04x 2026-11-11 19:00 UTC [SCAR-20 | Crimson Web (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $80.59 124 gems $16.93 26.05 gems 0.21x 2026-11-11 19:00 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-crimson-web-minimal-wear) Hidden $80.59 124 gems $3.22 4.96 gems 0.04x 2026-11-11 19:00 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-crimson-web-minimal-wear) Hidden $80.59 124 gems $3.22 4.96 gems 0.04x 2026-11-11 18:57 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-crimson-web-minimal-wear) Hidden $80.59 124 gems $3.22 4.96 gems 0.04x 2026-11-11 18:57 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-crimson-web-minimal-wear) Hidden $80.59 124 gems $3.22 4.96 gems 0.04x 2026-11-11 18:57 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-crimson-web-minimal-wear) Hidden $80.59 124 gems $3.22 4.96 gems 0.04x 2026-11-11 18:57 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $80.59 | 90.00% | 10 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 12.3% legendary 0.3% classified 2.3% extraordinary 0.3% mil spec 85.0% best hit $7,654 (94.98x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt