--- title: "VIBE Coded case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "VIBE Coded ($56.80) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.99% from 9 items with odds, observed 110.22% over 650 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/vibe-coded rendered: 2026-11-11T13:26Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [VIBE Coded](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/vibe-coded) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · VIBE Coded A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/vibe-coded?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/vibe-coded?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/vibe-coded) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/vibe-coded?window=all) Price · $56.80 · 87.39 gems Advertised RTP · 89.99% · EV $51.12 from 9 items Observed RTP, 30d · 110.22% · 650 openings, odds method Variance · 15.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 50 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 90.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 42 openings · below min 7 days · 120.37% ±32.31 555 openings 30 days · 110.22% ±29.86 650 openings since tracking started · 110.22% ±29.86 650 openings -0.5% 91.5% 183.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/vibe-coded?window=24h) | 42 | 65.60% ±117.4 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/vibe-coded?window=7d) | 555 | 120.37% ±32.3 | +1.8σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/vibe-coded) | 650 | 110.22% ±29.9 | +1.3σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/vibe-coded?window=all) | 650 | 110.22% ±29.9 | +1.3σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 650 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AUG \| Akihabara Accept (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-akihabara-accept-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $2,132 3,280 gems | 20.9% | 7 | 3.3 | 2.15× | | [AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $1,504 2,314 gems | 14.7% | 6 | 3.3 | 1.85× | | [AWP \| Desert Hydra (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-desert-hydra-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $1,068 1,643 gems | 20.9% | 4 | 6.5 | 0.62× | | [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Printstream (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-printstream-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $644 991 gems | 12.6% | 5 | 6.5 | 0.77× | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| The Oligarch (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-the-oligarch-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $345 530 gems | 6.7% | 5 | 6.5 | 0.77× | | [M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Factory New) weapon · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-full-throttle-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $131 201 gems | 2.6% | 7 | 6.5 | 1.08× | | [Glock-18 \| AXIA (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-axia-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $64.25 98.84 gems | 6.3% | 33 | 32.5 | 1.02× | | [UMP-45 \| Neo-Noir (Factory New) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-neo-noir-factory-new) | 25.0% | $20.88 32.13 gems | 10.2% | 127 | 162.5 | 0.78× | | [USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-jawbreaker-minimal-wear) | 65.0% | $4.05 6.23 gems | 5.1% | 456 | 422.5 | 1.08× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [AUG | Akihabara Accept (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-akihabara-accept-factory-new) Hidden $56.80 87.39 gems $2,132 3,280 gems 37.53x 2026-11-10 05:54 UTC [AUG | Akihabara Accept (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-akihabara-accept-factory-new) Hidden $56.80 87.39 gems $2,132 3,280 gems 37.53x 2026-11-09 23:45 UTC [AUG | Akihabara Accept (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-akihabara-accept-factory-new) Hidden $56.80 87.39 gems $2,132 3,280 gems 37.53x 2026-11-09 13:36 UTC [AUG | Akihabara Accept (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-akihabara-accept-factory-new) Hidden $56.80 87.39 gems $2,132 3,280 gems 37.53x 2026-11-07 09:49 UTC [AUG | Akihabara Accept (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-akihabara-accept-factory-new) Hidden $56.80 87.39 gems $2,132 3,280 gems 37.53x 2026-11-06 14:36 UTC [AUG | Akihabara Accept (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-akihabara-accept-factory-new) Hidden $56.80 87.39 gems $2,132 3,280 gems 37.53x 2026-11-06 09:56 UTC [AUG | Akihabara Accept (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-akihabara-accept-factory-new) Hidden $56.80 87.39 gems $2,132 3,280 gems 37.53x 2026-11-04 17:50 UTC [AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-factory-new) Hidden $56.80 87.39 gems $1,504 2,314 gems 26.48x 2026-11-08 13:16 UTC [AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-factory-new) [1010010101](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/1010010101) $56.80 87.39 gems $1,504 2,314 gems 26.48x 2026-11-08 13:16 UTC [AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-factory-new) Hidden $56.80 87.39 gems $1,504 2,314 gems 26.48x 2026-11-07 09:40 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=vibe-coded) [USP-S | Jawbreaker (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-jawbreaker-minimal-wear) Hidden $56.80 87.39 gems $4.05 6.23 gems 0.07x 2026-11-11 11:03 UTC [Glock-18 | AXIA (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-axia-factory-new) Hidden $56.80 87.39 gems $64.25 98.84 gems 1.13x 2026-11-11 11:03 UTC [USP-S | Jawbreaker (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-jawbreaker-minimal-wear) Hidden $56.80 87.39 gems $4.05 6.23 gems 0.07x 2026-11-11 11:03 UTC [USP-S | Jawbreaker (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-jawbreaker-minimal-wear) Hidden $56.80 87.39 gems $4.05 6.23 gems 0.07x 2026-11-11 11:03 UTC [USP-S | Jawbreaker (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-jawbreaker-minimal-wear) Hidden $56.80 87.39 gems $4.05 6.23 gems 0.07x 2026-11-11 11:03 UTC [M4A4 | Full Throttle (Factory New) weapon · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-full-throttle-factory-new) [ich hab kleine d](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/ich%20hab%20kleine%20d) $56.80 87.39 gems $131 201 gems 2.30x 2026-11-11 11:03 UTC [USP-S | Jawbreaker (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-jawbreaker-minimal-wear) Hidden $56.80 87.39 gems $4.05 6.23 gems 0.07x 2026-11-11 09:03 UTC [USP-S | Jawbreaker (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-jawbreaker-minimal-wear) Hidden $56.80 87.39 gems $4.05 6.23 gems 0.07x 2026-11-11 09:03 UTC [USP-S | Jawbreaker (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-jawbreaker-minimal-wear) Hidden $56.80 87.39 gems $4.05 6.23 gems 0.07x 2026-11-11 09:03 UTC [USP-S | Jawbreaker (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-jawbreaker-minimal-wear) Hidden $56.80 87.39 gems $4.05 6.23 gems 0.07x 2026-11-11 09:03 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $56.80 | 89.99% | 9 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 4.0% epic 1.0% rare 5.0% uncommon 25.0% pink 65.0% best hit $2,132 (37.53x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.99 on average: an expected loss of $10.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt