--- title: "Warlock case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Warlock ($1,377.59) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 5 items with odds, observed 80.21% over 12 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/warlock rendered: 2026-11-11T13:27Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Warlock](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/warlock) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Warlock A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/warlock?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/warlock?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/warlock) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/warlock?window=all) Price · $1,377.59 · 2,119 gems Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $1,239.82 from 5 items Observed RTP, 30d · 80.21% · 12 openings, odds method Variance · 1.2× · of price², per opening Tail share · 20.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 60.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 12 openings · below min 30 days · 12 openings · below min since tracking started · 12 openings · below min 18.0% 80.0% 142.0% **Small sample.** 12 openings and 2.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/warlock?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/warlock?window=7d) | 12 | 80.21% ±61.4 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/warlock) | 12 | 80.21% ±61.4 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/warlock?window=all) | 12 | 80.21% ±61.4 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 5 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 12 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AWP \| Medusa (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-factory-new) | 20.0% | $3,836 5,902 gems | 61.9% | 3 | 2.4 | 1.25× | | [AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-factory-new) | 20.0% | $2,003 3,082 gems | 32.3% | 0 | 2.4 | 0.00× | | [M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-master-piece-factory-new) | 20.0% | $339 521 gems | 5.5% | 5 | 2.4 | 2.08× | | [Desert Eagle \| Midnight Storm (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-midnight-storm-factory-new) | 20.0% | $18.21 28.02 gems | 0.3% | 3 | 2.4 | 1.25× | | [M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-evil-daimyo-factory-new) | 20.0% | $2.65 4.07 gems | 0.0% | 1 | 2.4 | 0.42× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [AWP | Medusa (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-factory-new) Hidden $1,378 2,119 gems $3,836 5,902 gems 2.78x 2026-11-09 11:27 UTC [AWP | Medusa (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-factory-new) [Palm Beach Pete](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Palm%20Beach%20Pete) $1,378 2,119 gems $3,836 5,902 gems 2.78x 2026-11-09 11:23 UTC [AWP | Medusa (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-factory-new) Hidden $1,378 2,119 gems $3,836 5,902 gems 2.78x 2026-11-09 11:23 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=warlock) [M4A1-S | Master Piece (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-master-piece-factory-new) Hidden $1,378 2,119 gems $339 521 gems 0.25x 2026-11-09 11:27 UTC [Desert Eagle | Midnight Storm (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-midnight-storm-factory-new) Hidden $1,378 2,119 gems $18.21 28.02 gems 0.01x 2026-11-09 11:27 UTC [AWP | Medusa (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-factory-new) Hidden $1,378 2,119 gems $3,836 5,902 gems 2.78x 2026-11-09 11:27 UTC [M4A1-S | Master Piece (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-master-piece-factory-new) Hidden $1,378 2,119 gems $339 521 gems 0.25x 2026-11-09 11:27 UTC [M4A1-S | Master Piece (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-master-piece-factory-new) Hidden $1,378 2,119 gems $339 521 gems 0.25x 2026-11-09 11:27 UTC [Desert Eagle | Midnight Storm (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-midnight-storm-factory-new) [Palm Beach Pete](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Palm%20Beach%20Pete) $1,378 2,119 gems $18.21 28.02 gems 0.01x 2026-11-09 11:27 UTC [AWP | Medusa (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-factory-new) Hidden $1,378 2,119 gems $3,836 5,902 gems 2.78x 2026-11-09 11:23 UTC [M4A1-S | Master Piece (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-master-piece-factory-new) Hidden $1,378 2,119 gems $339 521 gems 0.25x 2026-11-09 11:23 UTC [M4A1-S | Master Piece (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-master-piece-factory-new) Hidden $1,378 2,119 gems $339 521 gems 0.25x 2026-11-09 11:23 UTC [Desert Eagle | Midnight Storm (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-midnight-storm-factory-new) Hidden $1,378 2,119 gems $18.21 28.02 gems 0.01x 2026-11-09 11:23 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $1,378 | 90.00% | 5 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 40.0% classified 20.0% industrial 20.0% restricted 20.0% best hit $3,836 (2.78x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt