--- title: "Wasteland case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Wasteland ($28.01) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.99% from 10 items with odds, observed 93.89% over 649 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/wasteland rendered: 2026-11-11T19:22Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Wasteland](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/wasteland) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Wasteland A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/wasteland?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/wasteland?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/wasteland) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/wasteland?window=all) Price · $28.01 · 43.09 gems Advertised RTP · 89.99% · EV $25.20 from 10 items Observed RTP, 30d · 93.89% · 649 openings, odds method Variance · 11.4× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 33 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 85.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 54 openings · below min 7 days · 94.01% ±28.71 529 openings 30 days · 93.89% ±25.92 649 openings since tracking started · 93.89% ±25.92 649 openings 9.5% 100.0% 190.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/wasteland?window=24h) | 54 | 99.94% ±89.9 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/wasteland?window=7d) | 529 | 94.01% ±28.7 | +0.3σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/wasteland) | 649 | 93.89% ±25.9 | +0.3σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/wasteland?window=all) | 649 | 93.89% ±25.9 | +0.3σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 649 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-wasteland-rebel-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $901 1,386 gems | 35.7% | 8 | 6.5 | 1.23× | | [AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wasteland-rebel-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $206 317 gems | 16.4% | 10 | 13.0 | 0.77× | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-wasteland-rebel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $120 184 gems | 9.5% | 14 | 13.0 | 1.08× | | [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Wasteland Rebel (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-wasteland-rebel-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $63.20 97.23 gems | 6.3% | 18 | 16.2 | 1.11× | | [AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wasteland-rebel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 40 | $48.70 74.93 gems | 4.8% | 20 | 16.2 | 1.23× | | [★ Bloodhound Gloves \| Guerrilla (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/bloodhound-gloves-guerrilla-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20 | $38.98 59.97 gems | 7.7% | 22 | 32.5 | 0.68× | | [M4A4 \| The Battlestar (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-battlestar-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $16.32 25.11 gems | 6.5% | 59 | 64.9 | 0.91× | | [Galil AR \| Orange DDPAT (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-orange-ddpat-minimal-wear) | 15.0% | $11.61 17.86 gems | 6.9% | 97 | 97.3 | 1.00× | | [Five-SeveN \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-case-hardened-field-tested) | 20.0% | $6.02 9.26 gems | 4.8% | 138 | 129.8 | 1.06× | | [Nova \| Wurst Hölle (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-wurst-holle-factory-new) | 40.0% | $0.90 1.38 gems | 1.4% | 263 | 259.6 | 1.01× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [StatTrak™ AK-47 | Wasteland Rebel (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-wasteland-rebel-factory-new) Hidden $28.01 43.09 gems $901 1,386 gems 32.17x 2026-11-11 17:49 UTC [StatTrak™ AK-47 | Wasteland Rebel (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-wasteland-rebel-factory-new) Hidden $28.01 43.09 gems $901 1,386 gems 32.17x 2026-11-09 14:22 UTC [StatTrak™ AK-47 | Wasteland Rebel (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-wasteland-rebel-factory-new) [Rewu](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Rewu) $28.01 43.09 gems $901 1,386 gems 32.17x 2026-11-09 14:21 UTC [StatTrak™ AK-47 | Wasteland Rebel (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-wasteland-rebel-factory-new) Hidden $28.01 43.09 gems $901 1,386 gems 32.17x 2026-11-07 19:45 UTC [StatTrak™ AK-47 | Wasteland Rebel (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-wasteland-rebel-factory-new) Hidden $28.01 43.09 gems $901 1,386 gems 32.17x 2026-11-07 18:23 UTC [StatTrak™ AK-47 | Wasteland Rebel (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-wasteland-rebel-factory-new) Hidden $28.01 43.09 gems $901 1,386 gems 32.17x 2026-11-05 14:16 UTC [StatTrak™ AK-47 | Wasteland Rebel (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-wasteland-rebel-factory-new) Hidden $28.01 43.09 gems $901 1,386 gems 32.17x 2026-11-05 11:21 UTC [StatTrak™ AK-47 | Wasteland Rebel (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-wasteland-rebel-factory-new) Hidden $28.01 43.09 gems $901 1,386 gems 32.17x 2026-11-04 16:00 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=wasteland) [M4A4 | The Battlestar (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-battlestar-minimal-wear) Hidden $28.01 43.09 gems $16.32 25.11 gems 0.58x 2026-11-11 18:21 UTC [Nova | Wurst Hölle (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-wurst-holle-factory-new) [Valentinobond](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Valentinobond) $28.01 43.09 gems $0.90 1.38 gems 0.03x 2026-11-11 18:21 UTC [Nova | Wurst Hölle (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-wurst-holle-factory-new) Hidden $28.01 43.09 gems $0.90 1.38 gems 0.03x 2026-11-11 18:06 UTC [Five-SeveN | Case Hardened (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-case-hardened-field-tested) Hidden $28.01 43.09 gems $6.02 9.26 gems 0.21x 2026-11-11 18:06 UTC [Nova | Wurst Hölle (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-wurst-holle-factory-new) Hidden $28.01 43.09 gems $0.90 1.38 gems 0.03x 2026-11-11 18:06 UTC [Five-SeveN | Case Hardened (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-case-hardened-field-tested) Hidden $28.01 43.09 gems $6.02 9.26 gems 0.21x 2026-11-11 18:06 UTC [Nova | Wurst Hölle (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-wurst-holle-factory-new) Hidden $28.01 43.09 gems $0.90 1.38 gems 0.03x 2026-11-11 18:06 UTC [Five-SeveN | Case Hardened (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-case-hardened-field-tested) [Valentinobond](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Valentinobond) $28.01 43.09 gems $6.02 9.26 gems 0.21x 2026-11-11 18:06 UTC [StatTrak™ AK-47 | Wasteland Rebel (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-wasteland-rebel-factory-new) Hidden $28.01 43.09 gems $901 1,386 gems 32.17x 2026-11-11 17:49 UTC [Nova | Wurst Hölle (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-wurst-holle-factory-new) Hidden $28.01 43.09 gems $0.90 1.38 gems 0.03x 2026-11-11 17:49 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $28.01 | 89.99% | 10 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 10.0% extraordinary 5.0% Ancient 10.0% violet 15.0% restricted 20.0% milspec 40.0% best hit $901 (32.17x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.99 on average: an expected loss of $10.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt