--- title: "Water Melon case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Water Melon ($11.99) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.97% from 10 items with odds, observed 82.12% over 2,840 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/water-melon rendered: 2026-11-11T13:29Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Water Melon](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/water-melon) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Water Melon A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/water-melon?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/water-melon?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/water-melon) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/water-melon?window=all) Price · $11.99 · 18.44 gems Advertised RTP · 89.97% · EV $10.78 from 10 items Observed RTP, 30d · 82.12% · 2,840 openings, odds method Variance · 22.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 33 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 86.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 105.67% ±46.11 413 openings 7 days · 83.05% ±18.61 2,536 openings 30 days · 82.12% ±17.58 2,840 openings since tracking started · 82.12% ±17.58 2,840 openings 59.0% 105.7% 152.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/water-melon?window=24h) | 413 | 105.67% ±46.1 | +0.7σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/water-melon?window=7d) | 2,536 | 83.05% ±18.6 | −0.7σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/water-melon) | 2,840 | 82.12% ±17.6 | −0.9σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/water-melon?window=all) | 2,840 | 82.12% ±17.6 | −0.9σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,879 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Ursus Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $748 1,150 gems | 34.7% | 13 | 14.4 | 0.90× | | [★ Driver Gloves \| Rezan the Red (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-rezan-the-red-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $160 247 gems | 14.9% | 24 | 28.8 | 0.83× | | [MP9 \| Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hot-rod-factory-new) | 1 in 67 | $142 218 gems | 19.7% | 37 | 43.2 | 0.86× | | [USP-S \| The Traitor (Factory New) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-the-traitor-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $43.08 66.27 gems | 4.0% | 28 | 28.8 | 0.97× | | [M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $17.76 27.33 gems | 8.2% | 158 | 144.0 | 1.10× | | [MP9 \| Hydra (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hydra-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $14.65 22.54 gems | 6.8% | 124 | 144.0 | 0.86× | | [USP-S \| Tropical Breeze (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-tropical-breeze-minimal-wear) | 15.0% | $2.93 4.51 gems | 4.1% | 431 | 431.8 | 1.00× | | [P250 \| See Ya Later (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-see-ya-later-field-tested) | 15.0% | $1.92 2.95 gems | 2.7% | 425 | 431.8 | 0.98× | | [Glock-18 \| Nuclear Garden (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-nuclear-garden-minimal-wear) | 20.0% | $1.20 1.84 gems | 2.2% | 585 | 575.8 | 1.02× | | [Dual Berettas \| Polished Malachite (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-polished-malachite-factory-new) | 36.0% | $0.83 1.27 gems | 2.8% | 1,054 | 1036.4 | 1.02× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Ursus Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) [MrChow](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/MrChow) $11.99 18.44 gems $748 1,150 gems 62.36x 2026-11-11 04:55 UTC [★ Ursus Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) [peretz](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/peretz) $11.99 18.44 gems $748 1,150 gems 62.36x 2026-11-11 00:52 UTC [★ Ursus Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $11.99 18.44 gems $748 1,150 gems 62.36x 2026-11-10 22:50 UTC [★ Ursus Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $11.99 18.44 gems $748 1,150 gems 62.36x 2026-11-10 20:26 UTC [★ Ursus Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) [GetOnMySnus](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/GetOnMySnus) $11.99 18.44 gems $748 1,150 gems 62.36x 2026-11-08 14:04 UTC [★ Ursus Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $11.99 18.44 gems $748 1,150 gems 62.36x 2026-11-08 14:04 UTC [★ Ursus Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $11.99 18.44 gems $748 1,150 gems 62.36x 2026-11-07 20:12 UTC [★ Ursus Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $11.99 18.44 gems $748 1,150 gems 62.36x 2026-11-07 04:12 UTC [★ Ursus Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $11.99 18.44 gems $748 1,150 gems 62.36x 2026-11-05 11:54 UTC [★ Ursus Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $11.99 18.44 gems $748 1,150 gems 62.36x 2026-11-05 11:41 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=water-melon) [Glock-18 | Nuclear Garden (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-nuclear-garden-minimal-wear) Hidden $11.99 18.44 gems $1.20 1.84 gems 0.10x 2026-11-11 13:06 UTC [Glock-18 | Nuclear Garden (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-nuclear-garden-minimal-wear) Hidden $11.99 18.44 gems $1.20 1.84 gems 0.10x 2026-11-11 13:06 UTC [Glock-18 | Nuclear Garden (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-nuclear-garden-minimal-wear) Hidden $11.99 18.44 gems $1.20 1.84 gems 0.10x 2026-11-11 13:06 UTC [Glock-18 | Nuclear Garden (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-nuclear-garden-minimal-wear) [\*Ajooo\*](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/*Ajooo*-269066) $11.99 18.44 gems $1.20 1.84 gems 0.10x 2026-11-11 13:06 UTC [Dual Berettas | Polished Malachite (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-polished-malachite-factory-new) Hidden $11.99 18.44 gems $0.83 1.27 gems 0.07x 2026-11-11 12:56 UTC [Glock-18 | Nuclear Garden (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-nuclear-garden-minimal-wear) Hidden $11.99 18.44 gems $1.20 1.84 gems 0.10x 2026-11-11 12:56 UTC [P250 | See Ya Later (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-see-ya-later-field-tested) Hidden $11.99 18.44 gems $1.92 2.95 gems 0.16x 2026-11-11 12:56 UTC [P250 | See Ya Later (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-see-ya-later-field-tested) Hidden $11.99 18.44 gems $1.92 2.95 gems 0.16x 2026-11-11 12:56 UTC [P250 | See Ya Later (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-see-ya-later-field-tested) Hidden $11.99 18.44 gems $1.92 2.95 gems 0.16x 2026-11-11 12:56 UTC [Glock-18 | Nuclear Garden (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-nuclear-garden-minimal-wear) [Elizabeth](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Elizabeth) $11.99 18.44 gems $1.20 1.84 gems 0.10x 2026-11-11 12:56 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $11.99 | 89.97% | 10 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed legendary 0.5% extraordinary 1.0% mil spec 1.5% Ancient 1.0% covert 20.0% classified 5.0% Rare 15.0% restricted 20.0% Uncommon 36.0% best hit $748 (62.36x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.97 on average: an expected loss of $10.03 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt