--- title: "Wilderness Case case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Wilderness Case ($40.60) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 12 items with odds, observed 71.42% over 374 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/wilderness-case rendered: 2026-11-11T13:28Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Wilderness Case](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/wilderness-case) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Wilderness Case A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/wilderness-case?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/wilderness-case?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/wilderness-case) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/wilderness-case?window=all) Price · $40.60 · 62.46 gems Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $36.54 from 12 items Observed RTP, 30d · 71.42% · 374 openings, odds method Variance · 16.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 10.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 60.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 79 openings · below min 7 days · 61.71% ±48.72 272 openings 30 days · 71.42% ±41.55 374 openings since tracking started · 71.42% ±41.55 374 openings -0.5% 77.5% 155.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/wilderness-case?window=24h) | 79 | 64.48% ±90.4 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/wilderness-case?window=7d) | 272 | 61.71% ±48.7 | −1.1σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/wilderness-case) | 374 | 71.42% ±41.6 | −0.9σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/wilderness-case?window=all) | 374 | 71.42% ±41.6 | −0.9σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 374 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $4,753 7,312 gems | 13.0% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-field-tested) | 1 in 250 | $853 1,312 gems | 9.3% | 1 | 1.5 | 0.67× | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Emerald Web (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-emerald-web-well-worn) | 1 in 200 | $361 555 gems | 4.9% | 2 | 1.9 | 1.07× | | [★ Karambit \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-boreal-forest-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $345 531 gems | 9.4% | 4 | 3.7 | 1.07× | | [★ Skeleton Knife \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-boreal-forest-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $204 314 gems | 5.6% | 2 | 3.7 | 0.53× | | [AWP \| Wildfire (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $90.42 139 gems | 17.3% | 20 | 26.2 | 0.76× | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Forest DDPAT (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-forest-ddpat-well-worn) | 10.0% | $59.20 91.07 gems | 16.2% | 31 | 37.4 | 0.83× | | [AK-47 \| Jungle Spray (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-jungle-spray-factory-new) | 10.0% | $43.57 67.03 gems | 11.9% | 52 | 37.4 | 1.39× | | [AWP \| Wildfire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-field-tested) | 10.0% | $41.31 63.55 gems | 11.3% | 35 | 37.4 | 0.94× | | [Tec-9 \| Bamboozle (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-bamboozle-factory-new) | 20.0% | $1.09 1.67 gems | 0.6% | 73 | 74.8 | 0.98× | | [P2000 \| Turf (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-turf-factory-new) | 20.0% | $0.38 0.59 gems | 0.2% | 77 | 74.8 | 1.03× | | [Nova \| Wild Six (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-wild-six-field-tested) | 20.0% | $0.23 0.36 gems | 0.1% | 77 | 74.8 | 1.03× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-field-tested) [Trecky](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Trecky) $40.60 62.46 gems $853 1,312 gems 21.00x 2026-11-04 02:34 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=wilderness-case) [AK-47 | Jungle Spray (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-jungle-spray-factory-new) Hidden $40.60 62.46 gems $43.57 67.03 gems 1.07x 2026-11-11 12:35 UTC [Tec-9 | Bamboozle (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-bamboozle-factory-new) Hidden $40.60 62.46 gems $1.09 1.67 gems 0.03x 2026-11-11 12:35 UTC [Nova | Wild Six (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-wild-six-field-tested) Hidden $40.60 62.46 gems $0.23 0.36 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 12:35 UTC [AWP | Wildfire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-field-tested) Hidden $40.60 62.46 gems $41.31 63.55 gems 1.02x 2026-11-11 12:35 UTC [AK-47 | Jungle Spray (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-jungle-spray-factory-new) Hidden $40.60 62.46 gems $43.57 67.03 gems 1.07x 2026-11-11 12:35 UTC [AWP | Wildfire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-field-tested) [FarelEnergy skinbet.gg](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/FarelEnergy%20skinbet.gg) $40.60 62.46 gems $41.31 63.55 gems 1.02x 2026-11-11 12:35 UTC [P2000 | Turf (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-turf-factory-new) Hidden $40.60 62.46 gems $0.38 0.59 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 10:39 UTC [P2000 | Turf (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-turf-factory-new) Hidden $40.60 62.46 gems $0.38 0.59 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 10:39 UTC [AK-47 | Jungle Spray (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-jungle-spray-factory-new) [Daxo](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Daxo) $40.60 62.46 gems $43.57 67.03 gems 1.07x 2026-11-11 10:39 UTC [Tec-9 | Bamboozle (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-bamboozle-factory-new) Hidden $40.60 62.46 gems $1.09 1.67 gems 0.03x 2026-11-10 21:53 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $40.60 | 90.00% | 12 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 18.5% extraordinary 10.5% covert knife 1.0% industrial 10.0% restricted 40.0% Rare 20.0% best hit $853 (21.00x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt