--- title: "Winter Wreath case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Winter Wreath ($470.72) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 9 items with odds, observed 37.07% over 74 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/winter-wreath rendered: 2026-11-11T14:09Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Winter Wreath](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/winter-wreath) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Winter Wreath A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/winter-wreath?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/winter-wreath?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/winter-wreath) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/winter-wreath?window=all) Price · $470.72 · 724 gems Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $423.65 from 9 items Observed RTP, 30d · 37.07% · 74 openings, odds method Variance · 10.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 33 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 95.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 18 openings · below min 7 days · 68 openings · below min 30 days · 74 openings · below min since tracking started · 74 openings · below min -0.5% 91.5% 183.5% **Small sample.** 74 openings and 2.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/winter-wreath?window=24h) | 18 | 31.14% ±151.7 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/winter-wreath?window=7d) | 68 | 36.87% ±78.0 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/winter-wreath) | 74 | 37.07% ±74.8 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/winter-wreath?window=all) | 74 | 37.07% ±74.8 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 74 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Sticker \| Team LDLC.com (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-team-ldlc-com-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 200 | $18.5K 28,498 gems | 21.9% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Pandora's Box (Minimal Wear) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-pandoras-box-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $5,866 9,024 gems | 13.8% | 0 | 0.7 | — | | [AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-minimal-wear) | 1 in 67 | $5,138 7,905 gems | 18.2% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× | | [★ Skeleton Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $1,988 3,059 gems | 9.4% | 1 | 1.5 | 0.68× | | [Sticker \| Natus Vincere \| Katowice 2014 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-natus-vincere-katowice-2014) | 1 in 33 | $439 675 gems | 3.1% | 2 | 2.2 | 0.90× | | [M4A1-S \| Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $436 670 gems | 6.2% | 2 | 4.4 | 0.45× | | [★ Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $172 265 gems | 3.3% | 5 | 5.9 | 0.84× | | [Desert Eagle \| Fennec Fox (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-fennec-fox-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $165 254 gems | 3.5% | 5 | 6.7 | 0.75× | | [AK-47 \| Vulcan (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-field-tested) | 69.0% | $127 195 gems | 20.7% | 59 | 51.1 | 1.16× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Skeleton Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) [Palm Beach Pete](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Palm%20Beach%20Pete) $471 724 gems $1,988 3,059 gems 4.22x 2026-11-09 11:20 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=winter-wreath) [AK-47 | Vulcan (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-field-tested) Hidden $471 724 gems $127 195 gems 0.27x 2026-11-10 15:19 UTC [★ Bayonet | Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-crimson-web-field-tested) Hidden $471 724 gems $172 265 gems 0.37x 2026-11-10 15:19 UTC [AK-47 | Vulcan (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-field-tested) Hidden $471 724 gems $127 195 gems 0.27x 2026-11-10 15:19 UTC [AK-47 | Vulcan (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-field-tested) Hidden $471 724 gems $127 195 gems 0.27x 2026-11-10 15:19 UTC [AK-47 | Vulcan (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-field-tested) Hidden $471 724 gems $127 195 gems 0.27x 2026-11-10 15:19 UTC [AK-47 | Vulcan (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-field-tested) [Surgest](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Surgest) $471 724 gems $127 195 gems 0.27x 2026-11-10 15:19 UTC [AK-47 | Vulcan (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-field-tested) Hidden $471 724 gems $127 195 gems 0.27x 2026-11-10 15:18 UTC [M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) Hidden $471 724 gems $436 670 gems 0.93x 2026-11-10 15:18 UTC [AK-47 | Vulcan (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-field-tested) Hidden $471 724 gems $127 195 gems 0.27x 2026-11-10 15:18 UTC [AK-47 | Vulcan (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-field-tested) Hidden $471 724 gems $127 195 gems 0.27x 2026-11-10 15:18 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $471 | 90.00% | 9 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed remarkable 0.5% legendary 3.0% covert 78.5% high 3.0% classified 6.0% pink 9.0% best hit $1,988 (4.22x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt