--- title: "Winter's Embrace case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Winter's Embrace ($278.28) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 9 items with odds, observed 106.23% over 138 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/winters-embrace rendered: 2026-11-11T19:39Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Winter's Embrace](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/winters-embrace) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Winter's Embrace A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/winters-embrace?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/winters-embrace?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/winters-embrace) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/winters-embrace?window=all) Price · $278.28 · 428 gems Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $250.45 from 9 items Observed RTP, 30d · 106.23% · 138 openings, odds method Variance · 6.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 15.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 85.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 98.43% ±45.21 114 openings 30 days · 106.23% ±41.09 138 openings since tracking started · 106.23% ±41.09 138 openings 52.5% 100.3% 148.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/winters-embrace?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/winters-embrace?window=7d) | 114 | 98.43% ±45.2 | +0.4σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/winters-embrace) | 138 | 106.23% ±41.1 | +0.8σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/winters-embrace?window=all) | 138 | 106.23% ±41.1 | +0.8σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 138 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 100 | $5,699 8,767 gems | 22.8% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.72× | | [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $3,523 5,420 gems | 14.1% | 4 | 1.4 | 2.90× | | [★ Karambit \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $1,416 2,178 gems | 5.7% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.72× | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $1,014 1,560 gems | 4.0% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.72× | | [M4A4 \| Poseidon (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $848 1,305 gems | 3.4% | 0 | 1.4 | 0.00× | | [Desert Eagle \| Blaze (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-factory-new) | 10.0% | $632 972 gems | 25.2% | 16 | 13.8 | 1.16× | | [AK-47 \| Redline (Factory New) weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-redline-factory-new) | 20.0% | $133 205 gems | 10.6% | 26 | 27.6 | 0.94× | | [AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-field-tested) | 30.0% | $89.12 137 gems | 10.7% | 43 | 41.4 | 1.04× | | [AWP \| Redline (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-redline-field-tested) | 35.0% | $25.42 39.11 gems | 3.6% | 46 | 48.3 | 0.95× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) Hidden $278 428 gems $5,699 8,767 gems 20.48x 2026-11-09 00:49 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-battle-scarred) Hidden $278 428 gems $3,523 5,420 gems 12.66x 2026-11-10 02:37 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-battle-scarred) Hidden $278 428 gems $3,523 5,420 gems 12.66x 2026-11-06 10:02 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-battle-scarred) Hidden $278 428 gems $3,523 5,420 gems 12.66x 2026-11-04 04:36 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-battle-scarred) Hidden $278 428 gems $3,523 5,420 gems 12.66x 2026-11-04 00:16 UTC [★ Karambit | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-fade-factory-new) Hidden $278 428 gems $1,416 2,178 gems 5.09x 2026-11-06 10:03 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $278 428 gems $1,014 1,560 gems 3.64x 2026-11-05 23:29 UTC [Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-factory-new) Hidden $278 428 gems $632 972 gems 2.27x 2026-11-10 02:43 UTC [Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-factory-new) Hidden $278 428 gems $632 972 gems 2.27x 2026-11-07 16:16 UTC [Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-factory-new) Hidden $278 428 gems $632 972 gems 2.27x 2026-11-06 23:15 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=winters-embrace) [AWP | Redline (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-redline-field-tested) Hidden $278 428 gems $25.42 39.11 gems 0.09x 2026-11-10 16:44 UTC [AK-47 | Bloodsport (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-field-tested) Hidden $278 428 gems $89.12 137 gems 0.32x 2026-11-10 16:44 UTC [AWP | Redline (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-redline-field-tested) Hidden $278 428 gems $25.42 39.11 gems 0.09x 2026-11-10 16:44 UTC [AK-47 | Bloodsport (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-field-tested) Hidden $278 428 gems $89.12 137 gems 0.32x 2026-11-10 16:44 UTC [AK-47 | Bloodsport (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-field-tested) Hidden $278 428 gems $89.12 137 gems 0.32x 2026-11-10 16:44 UTC [AWP | Redline (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-redline-field-tested) [King-Hassany](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/King-Hassany) $278 428 gems $25.42 39.11 gems 0.09x 2026-11-10 16:44 UTC [AK-47 | Bloodsport (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-field-tested) Hidden $278 428 gems $89.12 137 gems 0.32x 2026-11-10 14:11 UTC [AK-47 | Bloodsport (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-field-tested) Hidden $278 428 gems $89.12 137 gems 0.32x 2026-11-10 14:11 UTC [AK-47 | Bloodsport (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-field-tested) Hidden $278 428 gems $89.12 137 gems 0.32x 2026-11-10 14:11 UTC [AK-47 | Redline (Factory New) weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-redline-factory-new) Hidden $278 428 gems $133 205 gems 0.48x 2026-11-10 14:11 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $278 | 90.00% | 9 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 34.0% classified 36.0% rare 10.0% other 20.0% best hit $5,699 (20.48x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt