--- title: "Yuletide Raiders case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Yuletide Raiders ($80.17) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 10 items with odds, observed 121.51% over 193 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/yuletide-raiders rendered: 2026-11-11T18:42Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Yuletide Raiders](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/yuletide-raiders) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Yuletide Raiders A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/yuletide-raiders?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/yuletide-raiders?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/yuletide-raiders) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/yuletide-raiders?window=all) Price · $80.17 · 123 gems Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $72.15 from 10 items Observed RTP, 30d · 121.51% · 193 openings, odds method Variance · 7.2× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 20 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 80.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 18 openings · below min 7 days · 132.05% ±40.46 169 openings 30 days · 121.51% ±37.86 193 openings since tracking started · 121.51% ±37.86 193 openings 18.5% 143.0% 267.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/yuletide-raiders?window=24h) | 18 | 143.10% ±124.0 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/yuletide-raiders?window=7d) | 169 | 132.05% ±40.5 | +2.0σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/yuletide-raiders) | 193 | 121.51% ±37.9 | +1.6σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/yuletide-raiders?window=all) | 193 | 121.51% ±37.9 | +1.6σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 197 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AWP \| The Prince (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $2,366 3,640 gems | 16.4% | 3 | 1.0 | — | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Autotronic (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-autotronic-factory-new) | 1 in 67 | $858 1,320 gems | 17.8% | 3 | 3.0 | 1.02× | | [★ Karambit \| Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $575 884 gems | 23.9% | 6 | 5.9 | 1.02× | | [AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $144 221 gems | 10.0% | 8 | 9.9 | 0.81× | | [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-factory-new) | 10.0% | $109 167 gems | 15.1% | 21 | 19.7 | 1.07× | | [Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $45.56 70.09 gems | 6.3% | 19 | 19.7 | 0.96× | | [AWP \| Redline (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-redline-field-tested) | 15.0% | $25.14 38.67 gems | 5.2% | 31 | 29.5 | 1.05× | | [AK-47 \| Slate (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-slate-factory-new) | 15.0% | $10.62 16.34 gems | 2.2% | 40 | 29.5 | 1.35× | | [MP7 \| Skulls (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-skulls-field-tested) | 20.0% | $8.32 12.8 gems | 2.3% | 33 | 39.4 | 0.84× | | [P90 \| Chopper (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-chopper-factory-new) | 20.0% | $2.80 4.3 gems | 0.8% | 33 | 39.4 | 0.84× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [AWP | The Prince (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-factory-new) Hidden $80.17 123 gems $2,366 3,640 gems 29.51x 2026-11-09 14:27 UTC [AWP | The Prince (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-factory-new) Hidden $80.17 123 gems $2,366 3,640 gems 29.51x 2026-11-08 20:19 UTC [AWP | The Prince (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-factory-new) Hidden $80.17 123 gems $2,366 3,640 gems 29.51x 2026-11-06 19:19 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Autotronic (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-autotronic-factory-new) Hidden $80.17 123 gems $858 1,320 gems 10.70x 2026-11-11 04:17 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Autotronic (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-autotronic-factory-new) Hidden $80.17 123 gems $858 1,320 gems 10.70x 2026-11-09 02:40 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Autotronic (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-autotronic-factory-new) Hidden $80.17 123 gems $858 1,320 gems 10.70x 2026-11-06 19:21 UTC [★ Karambit | Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-minimal-wear) Hidden $80.17 123 gems $575 884 gems 7.17x 2026-11-11 04:20 UTC [★ Karambit | Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-minimal-wear) Hidden $80.17 123 gems $575 884 gems 7.17x 2026-11-09 14:27 UTC [★ Karambit | Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-minimal-wear) Hidden $80.17 123 gems $575 884 gems 7.17x 2026-11-09 14:27 UTC [★ Karambit | Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-minimal-wear) Hidden $80.17 123 gems $575 884 gems 7.17x 2026-11-06 19:24 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=yuletide-raiders) [P90 | Chopper (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-chopper-factory-new) Hidden $80.17 123 gems $2.80 4.3 gems 0.03x 2026-11-11 04:24 UTC [Desert Eagle | Code Red (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-minimal-wear) Hidden $80.17 123 gems $45.56 70.09 gems 0.57x 2026-11-11 04:24 UTC [AWP | Redline (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-redline-field-tested) Hidden $80.17 123 gems $25.14 38.67 gems 0.31x 2026-11-11 04:24 UTC [M4A4 | Desolate Space (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-factory-new) Hidden $80.17 123 gems $109 167 gems 1.36x 2026-11-11 04:24 UTC [Desert Eagle | Code Red (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-minimal-wear) Hidden $80.17 123 gems $45.56 70.09 gems 0.57x 2026-11-11 04:24 UTC [Desert Eagle | Code Red (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-minimal-wear) [Energetic Lion](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Energetic%20Lion) $80.17 123 gems $45.56 70.09 gems 0.57x 2026-11-11 04:24 UTC [★ Karambit | Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-minimal-wear) Hidden $80.17 123 gems $575 884 gems 7.17x 2026-11-11 04:20 UTC [MP7 | Skulls (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-skulls-field-tested) Hidden $80.17 123 gems $8.32 12.8 gems 0.10x 2026-11-11 04:20 UTC [AWP | Redline (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-redline-field-tested) Hidden $80.17 123 gems $25.14 38.67 gems 0.31x 2026-11-11 04:20 UTC [M4A4 | Desolate Space (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-factory-new) Hidden $80.17 123 gems $109 167 gems 1.36x 2026-11-11 04:20 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $80.17 | 90.00% | 10 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 20.0% classified 25.0% restricted 35.0% mil spec 20.0% best hit $2,366 (29.51x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt