---
title: "2021 Dust 2 case on csgo.net: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "2021 Dust 2 ($2.69) on csgo.net, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 64.83% from 13 items with odds, observed 335.18% over 14 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/2021dust2
rendered: 2026-11-11T18:18Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) / [2021 Dust 2](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/2021dust2)

# [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) · 2021 Dust 2

A case on csgo.net (Collection), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/2021dust2?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/2021dust2?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/2021dust2) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/2021dust2?window=all)

Price · $2.69

Advertised RTP · 64.83% · EV $1.74 from 13 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 335.18% · 14 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.8× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 11.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 89.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

7 days · 13 openings · below min

30 days · 14 openings · below min

since tracking started · 14 openings · below min

64.5% 239.8% 415.0%

**Small sample.** 14 openings and 1.5 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/2021dust2?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/2021dust2?window=7d) | 13 | 337.95% ±76.4 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/2021dust2) | 14 | 335.18% ±74.0 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/2021dust2?window=all) | 14 | 335.18% ±74.0 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 13 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 14 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-field-tested) | 1 in 199,588 | $1,152 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Death Strike (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-death-strike-field-tested) | 1 in 136,189 | $189 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [UMP-45 \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 131,072 | $182 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Red DDPAT (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-red-ddpat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,045 | $31.82 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MAC-10 \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 804 | $23.18 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Orange Anolis (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-orange-anolis-minimal-wear) | 1 in 792 | $23.07 | 1.7% | 1 | 0.0 | — |
| [Galil AR \| Amber Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-amber-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $8.77 | 10.1% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [Nova \| Quick Sand (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-quick-sand-field-tested) | 1 in 41 | $8.19 | 11.3% | 3 | 0.3 | — |
| [G3SG1 \| New Roots (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-new-roots-field-tested) | 1 in 34 | $7.61 | 12.8% | 5 | 0.4 | — |
| [P250 \| Black & Tan (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-black-and-tan-field-tested) | 1 in 30 | $7.26 | 13.8% | 4 | 0.5 | — |
| [MP9 \| Old Roots (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-old-roots-minimal-wear) | 32.6% | $1.11 | 20.7% | 0 | 4.6 | 0.00× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Withered Vine (Field-Tested) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-withered-vine-field-tested) | 28.5% | $0.83 | 13.6% | 0 | 4.0 | 0.00× |
| [AUG \| Spalted Wood (Field-Tested) weapon · Industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-spalted-wood-field-tested) | 28.0% | $0.81 | 13.0% | 0 | 3.9 | 0.00× |

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgo-net:pf_case_ranges`, 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgo-net&case=2021dust2)

[Galil AR | Amber Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-amber-fade-minimal-wear) [DubASSoff](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/DubASSoff) $2.69 $8.58 3.19x 2026-11-10 15:55 UTC

[P250 | Black & Tan (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-black-and-tan-field-tested) [DubASSoff](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/DubASSoff) $2.69 $7.74 2.88x 2026-11-10 15:53 UTC

[G3SG1 | New Roots (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-new-roots-field-tested) [DubASSoff](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/DubASSoff) $2.69 $7.69 2.86x 2026-11-10 15:53 UTC

[USP-S | Orange Anolis (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-orange-anolis-minimal-wear) [DubASSoff](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/DubASSoff) $2.69 $23.30 8.66x 2026-11-10 15:53 UTC

[P250 | Black & Tan (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-black-and-tan-field-tested) [DubASSoff](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/DubASSoff) $2.69 $7.74 2.88x 2026-11-10 15:52 UTC

[P250 | Black & Tan (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-black-and-tan-field-tested) [DubASSoff](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/DubASSoff) $2.69 $7.74 2.88x 2026-11-10 15:52 UTC

[G3SG1 | New Roots (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-new-roots-field-tested) [DubASSoff](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/DubASSoff) $2.69 $7.69 2.86x 2026-11-10 15:52 UTC

[G3SG1 | New Roots (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-new-roots-field-tested) [DubASSoff](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/DubASSoff) $2.69 $7.69 2.86x 2026-11-10 15:52 UTC

[G3SG1 | New Roots (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-new-roots-field-tested) [DubASSoff](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/DubASSoff) $2.69 $7.69 2.86x 2026-11-10 15:51 UTC

[Nova | Quick Sand (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-quick-sand-field-tested) [DubASSoff](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/DubASSoff) $2.69 $8.08 3.00x 2026-11-10 15:51 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC | $2.69 | 64.83% | 13 |
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $2.69 | 64.80% | 13 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $2.69 | 64.65% | 13 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $2.69 | 64.65% | 13 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $2.69 | 64.93% | 14 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $2.69 | 65.10% | 14 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $2.69 | 65.12% | 14 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $2.69 | 65.11% | 14 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $2.69 | 65.10% | 14 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $2.69 | 65.22% | 14 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $2.69 | 65.54% | 14 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $2.69 | 65.56% | 14 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $2.69 | 65.52% | 14 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $2.69 | 65.64% | 14 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $2.69 | 65.55% | 14 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $2.69 | 65.57% | 14 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $2.69 | 65.64% | 14 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $2.69 | 65.59% | 14 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $2.69 | 65.51% | 14 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $2.69 | 65.59% | 14 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $2.69 | 65.57% | 14 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $2.69 | 65.48% | 14 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $2.69 | 65.60% | 14 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $2.69 | 65.89% | 14 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $2.69 | 65.97% | 14 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $2.69 | 65.90% | 14 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $2.69 | 65.61% | 14 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $2.69 | 65.74% | 14 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $2.69 | 65.75% | 14 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $2.69 | 65.76% | 13 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.0% classified 0.0% restricted 0.2% Mythical 0.1% Rare 2.0% #4b69ff 2.4% blue 2.9% milspec 3.3% Uncommon 32.6% Industrial Grade 28.5% Industrial 28.0% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 64.8% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $64.83 on average: an expected loss of $35.17 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt