---
title: "2021 Vertigo case on csgo.net: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "2021 Vertigo ($2.69) on csgo.net, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 76.50% from 18 items with odds, observed 176.58% over 2 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/2021vertigo
rendered: 2026-11-11T14:10Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) / [2021 Vertigo](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/2021vertigo)

# [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) · 2021 Vertigo

A case on csgo.net (Collection), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/2021vertigo?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/2021vertigo?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/2021vertigo) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/2021vertigo?window=all)

Price · $2.69

Advertised RTP · 76.50% · EV $2.06 from 18 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 176.58% · 2 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.2× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 30.2% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 69.8% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

7 days · 1 openings · below min

30 days · 2 openings · below min

since tracking started · 2 openings · below min

-0.5% 181.3% 363.0%

**Small sample.** 2 openings and 0.6 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/2021vertigo?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/2021vertigo?window=7d) | 1 | 166.91% ±195.6 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/2021vertigo) | 2 | 176.58% ±140.3 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/2021vertigo?window=all) | 2 | 176.58% ±140.3 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [M4A1-S \| Imminent Danger (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-imminent-danger-minimal-wear) | 1 in 199,531 | $1,016 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [SG 553 \| Hazard Pay (Minimal Wear) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-hazard-pay-minimal-wear) | 1 in 140,201 | $179 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Galil AR \| CAUTION! (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-caution-field-tested) | 1 in 4,760 | $39.00 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P250 \| Digital Architect (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-digital-architect-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,374 | $34.65 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MAG-7 \| Prism Terrace (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-prism-terrace-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,292 | $30.36 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Green Laminate (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-green-laminate-minimal-wear) | 1 in 310 | $15.23 | 2.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Nova \| Interlock (Field-Tested) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-interlock-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $5.39 | 11.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Negev \| Infrastructure (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-infrastructure-minimal-wear) | 1 in 16 | $4.48 | 13.9% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [P90 \| Schematic (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-schematic-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $4.21 | 14.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Carbon Fiber (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-carbon-fiber-minimal-wear) | 11.9% | $2.73 | 15.8% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Red Tire (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-red-tire-field-tested) | 13.9% | $1.94 | 13.1% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [UMP-45 \| Mechanism (Field-Tested) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-mechanism-field-tested) | 14.0% | $1.70 | 11.5% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [PP-Bizon \| Breaker Box (Field-Tested) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-breaker-box-field-tested) | 13.5% | $1.42 | 9.3% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [XM1014 \| Blue Tire (Minimal Wear) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-blue-tire-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $0.55 | 1.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [FAMAS \| Faulty Wiring (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-faulty-wiring-field-tested) | 1 in 18 | $0.41 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Dual Berettas \| Oil Change (Minimal Wear) weapon · #777777](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-oil-change-minimal-wear) | 1 in 19 | $0.40 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [MAC-10 \| Strats (Field-Tested) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-strats-field-tested) | 1 in 19 | $0.38 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Framework (Field-Tested) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-framework-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $0.37 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — |

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgo-net:pf_case_ranges`, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgo-net&case=2021vertigo)

[Negev | Infrastructure (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-infrastructure-minimal-wear) [nonyamis](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/nonyamis) $2.69 $4.49 1.67x 2026-11-07 19:11 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $2.69 | 76.50% | 18 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $2.69 | 76.34% | 18 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $2.69 | 76.30% | 18 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $2.69 | 76.65% | 18 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $2.69 | 76.95% | 18 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $2.69 | 76.97% | 18 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $2.69 | 76.92% | 18 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $2.69 | 76.96% | 18 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $2.69 | 77.09% | 18 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $2.69 | 77.57% | 18 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $2.69 | 77.53% | 18 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $2.69 | 77.50% | 18 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $2.69 | 77.49% | 18 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $2.69 | 77.48% | 18 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $2.69 | 77.48% | 18 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $2.69 | 77.52% | 18 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $2.69 | 77.50% | 18 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $2.69 | 77.50% | 18 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $2.69 | 77.48% | 18 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $2.69 | 77.50% | 18 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $2.69 | 77.46% | 18 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $2.69 | 77.57% | 18 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $2.69 | 77.95% | 18 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $2.69 | 77.94% | 18 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $2.69 | 77.83% | 18 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $2.69 | 77.55% | 18 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $2.69 | 77.67% | 18 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $2.69 | 77.55% | 18 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $2.69 | 77.61% | 18 |
| 4 Nov, 14:19 UTC | $2.69 | 77.58% | 18 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.0% Classified 0.0% restricted 0.1% #8847ff 0.0% blue 0.3% Mil Spec Grade 4.5% #4b69ff 6.4% milspec 7.1% Uncommon 25.8% #87c7ff 27.5% Common 12.3% consumer 5.5% #777777 5.4% Consumer Grade 5.1% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 76.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $76.50 on average: an expected loss of $23.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt