---
title: "AK-47 case on csgo.net: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "AK-47 ($13.99) on csgo.net, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 73.87% from 42 items with odds, observed 83.73% over 2,044 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/ak47
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:51Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) / [AK-47](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/ak47)

# [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) · AK-47

A case on csgo.net (Battle), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/ak47?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/ak47?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/ak47) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/ak47?window=all)

Price · $13.99

Advertised RTP · 73.87% · EV $10.33 from 42 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 83.73% · 2,044 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.4× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 30.5% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 83.6% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 88.85% ±6.43 348 openings

7 days · 83.49% ±3.12 1,599 openings

30 days · 83.73% ±2.78 2,044 openings

since tracking started · 83.73% ±2.78 2,044 openings

73.0% 84.5% 96.0%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 74.67% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (80.95% – 86.52%, 2,044 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/ak47?window=24h) | 348 | 88.85% ±6.43 | +4.6σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/ak47?window=7d) | 1,599 | 83.49% ±3.12 | +5.6σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/ak47) | 2,044 | 83.73% ±2.78 | +6.4σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/ak47?window=all) | 2,044 | 83.73% ±2.78 | +6.4σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 42 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,049 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AK-47 \| Hydroponic (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-hydroponic-field-tested) | 1 in 189,455 | $865 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-field-tested) | 1 in 178,348 | $667 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| X-Ray (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-field-tested) | 1 in 158,783 | $518 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Jet Set (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-jet-set-field-tested) | 1 in 99,294 | $329 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 38,558 | $205 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Vulcan (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-field-tested) | 1 in 19,298 | $156 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Panthera onca (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-panthera-onca-field-tested) | 1 in 12,817 | $135 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fuel-injector-field-tested) | 1 in 9,181 | $120 | 0.1% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-minimal-wear) | 1 in 8,305 | $116 | 0.1% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution-field-tested) | 1 in 6,257 | $105 | 0.2% | 2 | 0.3 | — |
| [AK-47 \| The Empress (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-field-tested) | 1 in 5,661 | $101 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Jaguar (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-jaguar-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,049 | $97.36 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [AK-47 \| First Class (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-first-class-field-tested) | 1 in 4,163 | $91.11 | 0.2% | 2 | 0.5 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Consequence of the Jinn (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-consequence-of-the-jinn-well-worn) | 1 in 3,440 | $85.35 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [AK-47 \| AUTOEXEC (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-autoexec-well-worn) | 1 in 3,053 | $81.94 | 0.3% | 1 | 0.7 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wasteland-rebel-field-tested) | 1 in 2,392 | $75.38 | 0.3% | 4 | 0.9 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Leet Museo (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-leet-museo-well-worn) | 1 in 1,597 | $65.68 | 0.4% | 5 | 1.3 | 3.90× |
| [AK-47 \| B the Monster (Field-Tested) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-b-the-monster-field-tested) | 1 in 1,516 | $64.52 | 0.4% | 5 | 1.4 | 3.70× |
| [AK-47 \| Nightwish (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,294 | $61.12 | 0.5% | 3 | 1.6 | 1.89× |
| [AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-red-laminate-field-tested) | 1 in 639 | $47.99 | 0.7% | 10 | 3.2 | 3.12× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-field-tested) | 1 in 373 | $39.83 | 1.0% | 5 | 5.5 | 0.91× |
| [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 355 | $39.17 | 1.1% | 6 | 5.8 | 1.04× |
| [AK-47 \| The Oligarch (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-oligarch-field-tested) | 1 in 285 | $36.29 | 1.2% | 13 | 7.2 | 1.81× |
| [AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aquamarine-revenge-field-tested) | 1 in 275 | $35.81 | 1.3% | 8 | 7.5 | 1.07× |
| [AK-47 \| Black Laminate (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-black-laminate-field-tested) | 1 in 229 | $33.57 | 1.4% | 5 | 9.0 | 0.56× |
| [AK-47 \| Inheritance (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-inheritance-field-tested) | 1 in 216 | $32.87 | 1.5% | 14 | 9.5 | 1.47× |
| [AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-legion-of-anubis-minimal-wear) | 1 in 208 | $32.43 | 1.5% | 15 | 9.9 | 1.52× |
| [AK-47 \| Head Shot (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-head-shot-field-tested) | 1 in 174 | $30.47 | 1.7% | 17 | 11.8 | 1.45× |
| [AK-47 \| Redline (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-redline-field-tested) | 1 in 91 | $24.00 | 2.6% | 30 | 22.6 | 1.33× |
| [AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-orbit-mk01-field-tested) | 1 in 88 | $23.73 | 2.6% | 51 | 23.3 | 2.19× |
| [AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-field-tested) | 1 in 30 | $15.56 | 4.9% | 93 | 67.3 | 1.38× |
| [AK-47 \| Green Laminate (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-green-laminate-minimal-wear) | 1 in 29 | $15.23 | 5.1% | 36 | 70.8 | 0.51× |
| [AK-47 \| Cartel (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-cartel-field-tested) | 1 in 28 | $15.01 | 5.2% | 108 | 73.1 | 1.48× |
| [AK-47 \| Aphrodite (Field-Tested) weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aphrodite-field-tested) | 1 in 23 | $13.69 | 5.8% | 126 | 89.7 | 1.40× |
| [AK-47 \| Blue Laminate (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-blue-laminate-minimal-wear) | 1 in 21 | $13.27 | 6.0% | 111 | 95.9 | 1.16× |
| [AK-47 \| Crane Flight (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-crane-flight-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $12.70 | 6.3% | 154 | 105.1 | 1.47× |
| [AK-47 \| Predator (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-predator-field-tested) | 1 in 18 | $12.06 | 6.6% | 0 | 116.5 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $11.95 | 6.7% | 117 | 118.8 | 0.99× |
| [AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nouveau-rouge-field-tested) | 11.8% | $7.60 | 8.7% | 145 | 241.8 | 0.60× |
| [AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-field-tested) | 15.1% | $5.74 | 8.4% | 315 | 308.7 | 1.02× |
| [AK-47 \| The Outsiders (Field-Tested) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-outsiders-field-tested) | 15.5% | $5.45 | 8.2% | 343 | 317.3 | 1.08× |
| [AK-47 \| Jungle Spray (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-jungle-spray-field-tested) | 15.6% | $5.35 | 8.1% | 0 | 320.1 | 0.00× |

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgo-net:pf_case_ranges`, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgo-net&case=ak47)

[AK-47 | The Outsiders (Field-Tested) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-outsiders-field-tested) [< 44도 >](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%26lt%3B%2044%EB%8F%84%20%26gt%3B) $13.99 $5.85 0.42x 2026-11-11 13:24 UTC

[AK-47 | Phantom Disruptor (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-field-tested) [< 44도 >](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%26lt%3B%2044%EB%8F%84%20%26gt%3B) $13.99 $5.74 0.41x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC

[AK-47 | Frontside Misty (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-field-tested) [< 44도 >](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%26lt%3B%2044%EB%8F%84%20%26gt%3B) $13.99 $15.56 1.11x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC

[AK-47 | The Outsiders (Field-Tested) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-outsiders-field-tested) [< 44도 >](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%26lt%3B%2044%EB%8F%84%20%26gt%3B) $13.99 $5.85 0.42x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC

[AK-47 | Cartel (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-cartel-field-tested) [КИБЕРСПИРТ](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%D0%9A%D0%98%D0%91%D0%95%D0%A0%D0%A1%D0%9F%D0%98%D0%A0%D0%A2) $13.99 $15.06 1.08x 2026-11-11 13:07 UTC

[AK-47 | The Outsiders (Field-Tested) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-outsiders-field-tested) [MaDDY](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/MaDDY) $13.99 $5.47 0.39x 2026-11-11 12:56 UTC

[AK-47 | The Outsiders (Field-Tested) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-outsiders-field-tested) [MaDDY](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/MaDDY) $13.99 $5.47 0.39x 2026-11-11 12:55 UTC

[AK-47 | Phantom Disruptor (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-field-tested) [MaDDY](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/MaDDY) $13.99 $5.74 0.41x 2026-11-11 12:55 UTC

[AK-47 | Blue Laminate (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-blue-laminate-minimal-wear) [MaDDY](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/MaDDY) $13.99 $12.94 0.92x 2026-11-11 12:55 UTC

[AK-47 | Nouveau Rouge (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nouveau-rouge-field-tested) [MaDDY](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/MaDDY) $13.99 $5.37 0.38x 2026-11-11 12:55 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $13.99 | 73.87% | 42 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $13.99 | 73.72% | 42 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $13.99 | 73.69% | 42 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $13.99 | 73.97% | 43 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $13.99 | 74.29% | 42 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $13.99 | 74.31% | 42 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $13.99 | 74.28% | 42 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $13.99 | 74.35% | 42 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $13.99 | 74.41% | 42 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $13.99 | 74.83% | 42 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $13.99 | 74.80% | 42 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $13.99 | 74.80% | 42 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $13.99 | 74.82% | 42 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $13.99 | 74.81% | 42 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $13.99 | 74.82% | 42 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $13.99 | 74.83% | 42 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $13.99 | 74.80% | 42 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $13.99 | 74.81% | 43 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $13.99 | 74.82% | 42 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $13.99 | 74.82% | 43 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $13.99 | 74.76% | 43 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $13.99 | 74.88% | 43 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $13.99 | 75.22% | 43 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $13.99 | 75.23% | 43 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $13.99 | 75.13% | 42 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $13.99 | 74.83% | 42 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $13.99 | 74.93% | 42 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $13.99 | 74.90% | 43 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $13.99 | 74.92% | 42 |
| 4 Nov, 14:19 UTC | $13.99 | 74.90% | 43 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed classified 13.9% covert 1.1% pink 16.9% red 1.0% restricted 4.7% rare 15.6% mil spec 0.4% Ancient 1.1% violet 1.1% blue 3.5% #eb4b4b 4.4% industrial 21.3% #d32ee6 15.1% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 73.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $73.87 on average: an expected loss of $26.13 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt