--- title: "ALL-IN M4A1-S case on csgo.net: odds, RTP & drops" description: "ALL-IN M4A1-S ($2.09) on csgo.net, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 62.32% from 2 items with odds, observed 55.81% over 3,624 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/allinm4a1s rendered: 2026-11-12T05:18Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) / [ALL-IN M4A1-S](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/allinm4a1s) # [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) · ALL-IN M4A1-S A case on csgo.net (Battle), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/allinm4a1s?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/allinm4a1s?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/allinm4a1s) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/allinm4a1s?window=all) Price · $2.09 Advertised RTP · 62.32% · EV $1.30 from 2 items Observed RTP, 30d · 55.81% · 3,624 openings, odds method Variance · 35.3× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 266 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 99.6% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 29.10% ±66.68 289 openings 7 days · 58.23% ±22.98 2,457 openings 30 days · 55.81% ±19.50 3,624 openings since tracking started · 55.81% ±19.50 3,624 openings -0.5% 48.0% 96.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/allinm4a1s?window=24h) | 289 | 29.10% ±66.7 | −1.0σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/allinm4a1s?window=7d) | 2,457 | 58.23% ±23.0 | −0.4σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/allinm4a1s) | 3,624 | 55.81% ±19.5 | −0.7σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/allinm4a1s?window=all) | 3,624 | 55.81% ±19.5 | −0.7σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 2 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,624 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [M4A1-S \| Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 266 | $203 | 58.7% | 8 | 13.6 | 0.59× | | [M4A1-S \| Emphorosaur-S (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-emphorosaur-s-field-tested) | 99.6% | $0.54 | 41.3% | 3,225 | 3610.4 | 0.89× | Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgo-net:pf_case_ranges`, 12 Nov, 00:45 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [M4A1-S | Fade weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-fade) [Reserva](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Reserva) $2.09 $209 100.1x 2026-11-03 02:38 UTC [M4A1-S | Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-fade-minimal-wear) [stervonskiy](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/stervonskiy) $2.09 $204 97.66x 2026-11-11 04:45 UTC [M4A1-S | Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-fade-minimal-wear) [Толкуйдаа](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%D0%A2%D0%BE%D0%BB%D0%BA%D1%83%D0%B9%D0%B4%D0%B0%D0%B0) $2.09 $189 90.42x 2026-11-04 12:48 UTC [M4A1-S | Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-fade-minimal-wear) [The oNe](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/The%20oNe) $2.09 $188 89.97x 2026-11-05 22:48 UTC [M4A1-S | Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-fade-minimal-wear) [Warriorspeek](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Warriorspeek) $2.09 $188 89.78x 2026-11-07 01:19 UTC [M4A1-S | Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-fade-minimal-wear) [JPCadeirante-.](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/JPCadeirante-.) $2.09 $187 89.68x 2026-11-06 05:41 UTC [M4A1-S | Fade weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-fade) [RicardoRPH](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/RicardoRPH) $2.09 $186 89.01x 2026-11-02 22:40 UTC [M4A1-S | Fade weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-fade) [RicardoRPH](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/RicardoRPH) $2.09 $186 89.01x 2026-11-02 22:39 UTC [M4A1-S | Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-fade-minimal-wear) [50h1gh x deewit.](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/50h1gh%20x%20deewit.) $2.09 $185 88.50x 2026-11-05 14:05 UTC [M4A1-S | Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-fade-minimal-wear) [JPCadeirante-.](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/JPCadeirante-.) $2.09 $181 86.82x 2026-11-07 12:01 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgo-net&case=allinm4a1s) [M4A1-S | Emphorosaur-S (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-emphorosaur-s-field-tested) [!The Collector - TRADING](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/!The%20Collector%20-%20%20TRADING) $2.09 $0.54 0.26x 2026-11-12 01:45 UTC [M4A1-S | Emphorosaur-S (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-emphorosaur-s-field-tested) [try-AGAIN](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/try-AGAIN) $2.09 $0.54 0.26x 2026-11-11 19:48 UTC [M4A1-S | Emphorosaur-S (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-emphorosaur-s-field-tested) [FRØSTCLAW](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/FR%C3%98STCLAW) $2.09 $0.54 0.26x 2026-11-11 19:24 UTC [M4A1-S | Emphorosaur-S (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-emphorosaur-s-field-tested) [Cos\_Der](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Cos_Der) $2.09 $0.54 0.26x 2026-11-11 19:07 UTC [M4A1-S | Emphorosaur-S (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-emphorosaur-s-field-tested) [Slow Bodi Flow](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Slow%20Bodi%20Flow) $2.09 $0.86 0.41x 2026-11-11 18:42 UTC [M4A1-S | Emphorosaur-S (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-emphorosaur-s-field-tested) [Slow Bodi Flow](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Slow%20Bodi%20Flow) $2.09 $0.86 0.41x 2026-11-11 18:42 UTC [M4A1-S | Emphorosaur-S (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-emphorosaur-s-field-tested) [Slow Bodi Flow](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Slow%20Bodi%20Flow) $2.09 $0.86 0.41x 2026-11-11 18:42 UTC [M4A1-S | Emphorosaur-S (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-emphorosaur-s-field-tested) [Slow Bodi Flow](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Slow%20Bodi%20Flow) $2.09 $0.86 0.41x 2026-11-11 18:42 UTC [M4A1-S | Emphorosaur-S (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-emphorosaur-s-field-tested) [Slow Bodi Flow](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Slow%20Bodi%20Flow) $2.09 $0.86 0.41x 2026-11-11 18:41 UTC [M4A1-S | Emphorosaur-S (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-emphorosaur-s-field-tested) [Slow Bodi Flow](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Slow%20Bodi%20Flow) $2.09 $0.86 0.41x 2026-11-11 18:41 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 12 Nov, 00:45 UTC | $2.09 | 62.32% | 2 | | 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC | $2.09 | 62.69% | 2 | | 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $2.09 | 62.50% | 2 | | 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $2.09 | 62.25% | 2 | | 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $2.09 | 62.24% | 2 | | 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $2.09 | 62.47% | 2 | | 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $2.09 | 62.75% | 2 | | 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $2.09 | 62.75% | 2 | | 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $2.09 | 62.74% | 2 | | 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $2.09 | 62.81% | 2 | | 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $2.09 | 63.02% | 2 | | 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $2.09 | 63.23% | 2 | | 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $2.09 | 63.22% | 2 | | 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $2.09 | 63.16% | 2 | | 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $2.09 | 63.20% | 2 | | 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $2.09 | 63.41% | 2 | | 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $2.09 | 63.23% | 2 | | 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $2.09 | 63.19% | 2 | | 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $2.09 | 63.21% | 2 | | 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $2.09 | 63.21% | 2 | | 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $2.09 | 63.21% | 2 | | 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $2.09 | 63.21% | 2 | | 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $2.09 | 63.36% | 2 | | 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $2.09 | 63.24% | 2 | | 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $2.09 | 63.53% | 2 | | 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $2.09 | 63.54% | 2 | | 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $2.09 | 63.49% | 2 | | 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $2.09 | 63.21% | 2 | | 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $2.09 | 63.28% | 2 | | 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $2.09 | 63.28% | 2 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed epic 0.4% Mythical 99.6% best hit $209 (100.1x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 62.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $62.32 on average: an expected loss of $37.68 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt