--- title: "ALL-IN M4A4 case on csgo.net: odds, RTP & drops" description: "ALL-IN M4A4 ($1.79) on csgo.net, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 63.24% from 2 items with odds, observed 78.62% over 1,710 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/allinm4a4 rendered: 2026-11-11T19:10Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) / [ALL-IN M4A4](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/allinm4a4) # [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) · ALL-IN M4A4 A case on csgo.net (Battle), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/allinm4a4?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/allinm4a4?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/allinm4a4) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/allinm4a4?window=all) Price · $1.79 Advertised RTP · 63.24% · EV $1.13 from 2 items Observed RTP, 30d · 78.62% · 1,710 openings, odds method Variance · 48.3× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 241 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 99.6% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 194 openings · below min 7 days · 78.48% ±35.74 1,518 openings 30 days · 78.62% ±33.64 1,710 openings since tracking started · 78.62% ±33.64 1,710 openings 30.5% 128.0% 225.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/allinm4a4?window=24h) | 194 | 127.92% ±97.0 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/allinm4a4?window=7d) | 1,518 | 78.48% ±35.7 | +0.8σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/allinm4a4) | 1,710 | 78.62% ±33.6 | +0.9σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/allinm4a4?window=all) | 1,710 | 78.62% ±33.6 | +0.9σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 2 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,711 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [M4A4 \| Eye of Horus (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-eye-of-horus-field-tested) | 1 in 241 | $194 | 71.1% | 9 | 7.1 | 1.27× | | [M4A4 \| Etch Lord (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-etch-lord-field-tested) | 99.6% | $0.33 | 28.9% | 1,647 | 1703.9 | 0.97× | Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgo-net:pf_case_ranges`, 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [M4A4 | Eye of Horus (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-eye-of-horus-field-tested) [Warriorspeek](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Warriorspeek) $1.79 $224 125.2x 2026-11-07 01:18 UTC [M4A4 | Eye of Horus (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-eye-of-horus-field-tested) [ZverBaze™](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/ZverBaze%E2%84%A2) $1.79 $209 116.7x 2026-11-03 20:47 UTC [M4A4 | Eye of Horus (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-eye-of-horus-field-tested) [Синий Птах](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%D0%A1%D0%B8%D0%BD%D0%B8%D0%B9%20%D0%9F%D1%82%D0%B0%D1%85) $1.79 $205 114.4x 2026-11-05 19:39 UTC [M4A4 | Eye of Horus (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-eye-of-horus-field-tested) [Синий Птах](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%D0%A1%D0%B8%D0%BD%D0%B8%D0%B9%20%D0%9F%D1%82%D0%B0%D1%85) $1.79 $205 114.4x 2026-11-05 19:39 UTC [M4A4 | Eye of Horus (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-eye-of-horus-field-tested) [snkrsl](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/snkrsl) $1.79 $204 114.2x 2026-11-05 22:44 UTC [M4A4 | Eye of Horus (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-eye-of-horus-field-tested) [snkrsl](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/snkrsl) $1.79 $204 114.2x 2026-11-05 22:37 UTC [M4A4 | Eye of Horus (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-eye-of-horus-field-tested) [lestor](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/lestor) $1.79 $204 114.1x 2026-11-06 03:00 UTC [M4A4 | Eye of Horus (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-eye-of-horus-field-tested) [ZverBaze™](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/ZverBaze%E2%84%A2) $1.79 $191 106.5x 2026-11-11 07:21 UTC [M4A4 | Eye of Horus (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-eye-of-horus-field-tested) [$torm\_CK](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%24torm_CK) $1.79 $191 106.5x 2026-11-11 07:05 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgo-net&case=allinm4a4) [M4A4 | Etch Lord (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-etch-lord-field-tested) [sssssssssssssssssssssssssssssss](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/sssssssssssssssssssssssssssssss) $1.79 $0.45 0.25x 2026-11-11 18:58 UTC [M4A4 | Etch Lord (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-etch-lord-field-tested) [Patriot](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Patriot) $1.79 $0.33 0.19x 2026-11-11 16:09 UTC [M4A4 | Etch Lord (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-etch-lord-field-tested) [Patriot](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Patriot) $1.79 $0.33 0.19x 2026-11-11 16:09 UTC [M4A4 | Etch Lord (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-etch-lord-field-tested) [Patriot](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Patriot) $1.79 $0.33 0.19x 2026-11-11 16:09 UTC [M4A4 | Etch Lord (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-etch-lord-field-tested) [Patriot](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Patriot) $1.79 $0.33 0.19x 2026-11-11 16:09 UTC [M4A4 | Etch Lord (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-etch-lord-field-tested) [Patriot](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Patriot) $1.79 $0.33 0.19x 2026-11-11 16:09 UTC [M4A4 | Etch Lord (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-etch-lord-field-tested) [Patriot](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Patriot) $1.79 $0.33 0.19x 2026-11-11 16:09 UTC [M4A4 | Etch Lord (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-etch-lord-field-tested) [Patriot](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Patriot) $1.79 $0.33 0.19x 2026-11-11 16:09 UTC [M4A4 | Etch Lord (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-etch-lord-field-tested) [Patriot](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Patriot) $1.79 $0.33 0.19x 2026-11-11 16:09 UTC [M4A4 | Etch Lord (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-etch-lord-field-tested) [Patriot](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Patriot) $1.79 $0.33 0.19x 2026-11-11 16:09 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC | $1.79 | 63.24% | 2 | | 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $1.79 | 63.08% | 2 | | 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $1.79 | 62.93% | 2 | | 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $1.79 | 62.90% | 2 | | 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $1.79 | 63.16% | 2 | | 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $1.79 | 63.44% | 2 | | 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $1.79 | 63.45% | 2 | | 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $1.79 | 63.45% | 2 | | 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $1.79 | 63.50% | 2 | | 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $1.79 | 63.54% | 2 | | 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $1.79 | 63.92% | 2 | | 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $1.79 | 63.90% | 2 | | 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $1.79 | 63.90% | 2 | | 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $1.79 | 63.90% | 2 | | 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $1.79 | 63.89% | 2 | | 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $1.79 | 63.90% | 2 | | 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $1.79 | 63.91% | 2 | | 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $1.79 | 63.89% | 2 | | 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $1.79 | 63.89% | 2 | | 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $1.79 | 63.89% | 2 | | 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $1.79 | 63.90% | 2 | | 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $1.79 | 63.85% | 2 | | 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $1.79 | 63.92% | 2 | | 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $1.79 | 64.22% | 2 | | 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $1.79 | 64.27% | 2 | | 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $1.79 | 64.16% | 2 | | 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $1.79 | 63.92% | 2 | | 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $1.79 | 64.00% | 2 | | 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $1.79 | 63.98% | 2 | | 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $1.79 | 64.00% | 2 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed red 0.4% violet 99.6% best hit $224 (125.2x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 63.2% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $63.24 on average: an expected loss of $36.76 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt