--- title: "Alpha case on csgo.net: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Alpha ($11.99) on csgo.net, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 73.25% from 16 items with odds, observed 154.13% over 1 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/alpha rendered: 2026-11-11T13:27Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) / [Alpha](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/alpha) # [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) · Alpha A case on csgo.net (Collection), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/alpha?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/alpha?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/alpha) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/alpha?window=all) Price · $11.99 Advertised RTP · 73.25% · EV $8.78 from 16 items Observed RTP, 30d · 154.13% · 1 openings, odds method Variance · 0.3× · of price², per opening Tail share · 24.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 67.4% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 1 openings · below min 30 days · 1 openings · below min since tracking started · 1 openings · below min 39.5% 154.0% 268.5% **Small sample.** 1 openings and 0.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/alpha?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/alpha?window=7d) | 1 | 154.13% ±113.8 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/alpha) | 1 | 154.13% ±113.8 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/alpha?window=all) | 1 | 154.13% ±113.8 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [MAG-7 \| Hazard (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-hazard-field-tested) | 1 in 28 | $23.84 | 9.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [SCAR-20 \| Emerald (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-emerald-factory-new) | 1 in 27 | $23.80 | 9.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AUG \| Anodized Navy (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-anodized-navy-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $20.92 | 10.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [FAMAS \| Spitfire (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-spitfire-field-tested) | 1 in 19 | $19.36 | 11.4% | 1 | 0.1 | — | | [PP-Bizon \| Rust Coat (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-rust-coat-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $15.56 | 12.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Five-SeveN \| Anodized Gunmetal (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-anodized-gunmetal-factory-new) | 1 in 12 | $12.10 | 11.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Glock-18 \| Sand Dune (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-sand-dune-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $7.24 | 7.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [SSG 08 \| Mayan Dreams (Field-Tested) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-mayan-dreams-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $5.92 | 5.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Negev \| Palm (Field-Tested) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-palm-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $4.15 | 3.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Tec-9 \| Tornado (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-tornado-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $4.11 | 3.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [XM1014 \| Jungle (Field-Tested) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-jungle-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $4.02 | 3.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Sawed-Off \| Mosaico (Field-Tested) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-mosaico-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $3.99 | 3.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [P250 \| Facets (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-facets-field-tested) | 1 in 15 | $3.67 | 2.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [MP9 \| Dry Season (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-dry-season-field-tested) | 1 in 19 | $2.92 | 1.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [MP7 \| Groundwater (Field-Tested) weapon · #777777](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-groundwater-field-tested) | 1 in 19 | $2.78 | 1.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [M249 \| Jungle DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-jungle-ddpat-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $2.20 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgo-net:pf_case_ranges`, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgo-net&case=alpha) [FAMAS | Spitfire (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-spitfire-field-tested) [🅼🅰🅶🅶🅾🆃](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%F0%9F%85%BC%F0%9F%85%B0%F0%9F%85%B6%F0%9F%85%B6%F0%9F%85%BE%F0%9F%86%83) $11.99 $18.48 1.54x 2026-11-09 06:14 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $11.99 | 73.25% | 16 | | 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $11.99 | 73.08% | 16 | | 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $11.99 | 73.07% | 16 | | 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $11.99 | 73.36% | 16 | | 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $11.99 | 73.67% | 16 | | 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $11.99 | 73.68% | 16 | | 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $11.99 | 73.66% | 16 | | 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $11.99 | 73.72% | 16 | | 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $11.99 | 73.79% | 16 | | 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $11.99 | 74.20% | 16 | | 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $11.99 | 74.18% | 16 | | 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $11.99 | 74.17% | 16 | | 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $11.99 | 74.19% | 16 | | 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $11.99 | 74.19% | 16 | | 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $11.99 | 74.19% | 16 | | 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $11.99 | 74.20% | 16 | | 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $11.99 | 74.18% | 16 | | 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $11.99 | 74.18% | 16 | | 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $11.99 | 74.19% | 16 | | 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $11.99 | 74.19% | 16 | | 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $11.99 | 74.13% | 16 | | 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $11.99 | 74.25% | 16 | | 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $11.99 | 74.59% | 16 | | 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $11.99 | 74.59% | 16 | | 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $11.99 | 74.50% | 16 | | 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $11.99 | 74.20% | 16 | | 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $11.99 | 74.30% | 16 | | 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $11.99 | 74.29% | 16 | | 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $11.99 | 74.29% | 16 | | 4 Nov, 14:19 UTC | $11.99 | 74.28% | 16 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed mil spec 15.1% restricted 8.8% Common 8.6% Uncommon 9.4% Industrial Grade 22.8% consumer 16.7% Consumer Grade 6.9% industrial 6.5% #777777 5.2% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 73.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $73.25 on average: an expected loss of $26.75 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt