---
title: "CS2 Ancient case on csgo.net: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "CS2 Ancient ($0.11) on csgo.net, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 75.33% from 36 items with odds. Item values at the site’s own prices, biggest and latest drops."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/ancientcs2
rendered: 2026-11-11T14:04Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) / [CS2 Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/ancientcs2)

# [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) · CS2 Ancient

A case on csgo.net, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/ancientcs2?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/ancientcs2?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/ancientcs2) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/ancientcs2?window=all)

Price · $0.11

Advertised RTP · 75.33% · EV $0.08 from 36 items

Observed RTP, 30d · — · no counted openings

Variance · 5.6× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 16.8% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 83.2% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

**No counted openings yet** Openings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/ancientcs2?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/ancientcs2?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/ancientcs2) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/ancientcs2?window=all) | 0 | — | — | — |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 36 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Glock-18 \| Wasteland Rebel (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-wasteland-rebel-field-tested) | 1 in 199,975 | $95.26 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MP7 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-bloodsport-field-tested) | 1 in 199,249 | $30.45 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Desert-Strike (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desert-strike-field-tested) | 1 in 198,972 | $27.41 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AUG \| Fleet Flock (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-fleet-flock-field-tested) | 1 in 188,108 | $11.90 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Five-SeveN \| Monkey Business (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-monkey-business-field-tested) | 1 in 186,834 | $11.47 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P90 \| Shapewood (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-shapewood-minimal-wear) | 1 in 176,387 | $9.26 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MAC-10 \| Disco Tech (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-disco-tech-field-tested) | 1 in 126,438 | $5.68 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Sawed-Off \| Kiss♥Love (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-kiss-love-minimal-wear) | 1 in 91,179 | $4.47 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Cyrex (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cyrex-field-tested) | 1 in 42,653 | $3.06 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Duality (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-duality-field-tested) | 1 in 37,634 | $2.91 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P250 \| Supernova (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-supernova-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20,348 | $2.29 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Phobos (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-phobos-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17,457 | $2.16 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Tacticat (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tacticat-field-tested) | 1 in 2,321 | $1.07 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [SG 553 \| Tiger Moth (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-tiger-moth-well-worn) | 1 in 1,471 | $0.91 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Catacombs (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-catacombs-field-tested) | 1 in 907 | $0.77 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-night-terror-minimal-wear) | 1 in 629 | $0.68 | 1.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MP5-SD \| Gauss (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-gauss-field-tested) | 1 in 353 | $0.56 | 1.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Five-SeveN \| Violent Daimyo (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-violent-daimyo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 309 | $0.53 | 2.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P250 \| X-Ray (Minimal Wear) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-x-ray-minimal-wear) | 1 in 119 | $0.38 | 3.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MP7 \| Just Smile (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-just-smile-field-tested) | 1 in 118 | $0.38 | 3.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Clear Polymer (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-clear-polymer-field-tested) | 1 in 117 | $0.37 | 3.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Tec-9 \| Brother (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-brother-well-worn) | 1 in 103 | $0.36 | 4.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Umbral Rabbit (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-umbral-rabbit-field-tested) | 1 in 96 | $0.35 | 4.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AUG \| Tom Cat (Field-Tested) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-tom-cat-field-tested) | 1 in 85 | $0.33 | 4.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Urban Rubble (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-urban-rubble-minimal-wear) | 1 in 84 | $0.33 | 4.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P90 \| Neoqueen (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-neoqueen-field-tested) | 1 in 72 | $0.31 | 5.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-safari-mesh-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $0.14 | 12.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P250 \| Cassette (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-cassette-field-tested) | 12.0% | $0.07 | 10.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [SG 553 \| Ol' Rusty (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-ol-rusty-field-tested) | 12.0% | $0.06 | 8.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MP7 \| Sunbaked (Field-Tested) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-sunbaked-field-tested) | 11.5% | $0.05 | 7.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AUG \| Snake Pit (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-snake-pit-field-tested) | 11.1% | $0.04 | 6.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AUG \| Storm (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-storm-minimal-wear) | 10.3% | $0.04 | 4.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Sawed-Off \| Snake Camo (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-snake-camo-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $0.03 | 2.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Negev \| Army Sheen (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-army-sheen-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $0.03 | 2.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Dual Berettas \| Contractor (Minimal Wear) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-contractor-minimal-wear) | 1 in 19 | $0.02 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AUG \| Contractor (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-contractor-field-tested) | 1 in 18 | $0.02 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgo-net:pf_case_ranges`, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgo-net&case=ancientcs2)

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days

No history yet

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $0.11 | 75.33% | 36 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $0.11 | 75.20% | 36 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $0.11 | 75.19% | 36 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $0.11 | 75.48% | 36 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $0.11 | 75.73% | 36 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $0.11 | 75.82% | 36 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $0.11 | 75.76% | 36 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $0.11 | 75.74% | 36 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $0.11 | 75.99% | 36 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $0.11 | 76.27% | 36 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $0.11 | 76.26% | 36 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $0.11 | 76.25% | 36 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $0.11 | 76.27% | 36 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $0.11 | 76.19% | 36 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $0.11 | 76.39% | 36 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $0.11 | 76.29% | 36 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $0.11 | 76.23% | 36 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $0.11 | 76.31% | 36 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $0.11 | 76.29% | 36 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $0.11 | 76.30% | 36 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $0.11 | 76.15% | 36 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $0.11 | 76.21% | 36 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $0.11 | 76.75% | 36 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $0.11 | 76.68% | 36 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $0.11 | 76.68% | 36 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $0.11 | 76.32% | 36 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $0.11 | 76.46% | 36 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $0.11 | 76.45% | 36 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $0.11 | 76.38% | 36 |
| 4 Nov, 14:19 UTC | $0.11 | 76.39% | 36 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed red 0.0% covert 0.0% Ancient 0.0% #d32ee6 0.0% classified 0.0% Legendary 0.0% pink 0.0% restricted 0.3% Mythical 1.0% #8847ff 1.0% violet 2.5% Rare 2.2% mil spec 0.3% Restricted 0.8% Mil Spec Grade 1.2% industrial 15.4% milspec 24.0% Consumer Grade 16.9% consumer 34.4%

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 75.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $75.33 on average: an expected loss of $24.67 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt