---
title: "Apex Legends case on csgo.net: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Apex Legends ($0.67) on csgo.net, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 78.04% from 14 items with odds, observed 80.54% over 24.6K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/apexlegends
rendered: 2026-11-11T19:13Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) / [Apex Legends](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/apexlegends)

# [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) · Apex Legends

A case on csgo.net (Limited edition), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/apexlegends?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/apexlegends?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/apexlegends) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/apexlegends?window=all)

Price · $0.67

Advertised RTP · 78.04% · EV $0.52 from 14 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 80.54% · 24.6K openings, odds method

Variance · 1.3× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 38.5% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 88.5% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 88.69% ±5.51 1,713 openings

7 days · 81.12% ±1.67 19.2K openings

30 days · 80.54% ±1.48 24.6K openings

since tracking started · 80.54% ±1.48 24.6K openings

77.0% 86.0% 95.0%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 78.77% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (79.07% – 82.02%, 24,570 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/apexlegends?window=24h) | 1,713 | 88.69% ±5.51 | +3.9σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/apexlegends?window=7d) | 19.2K | 81.12% ±1.67 | +2.9σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/apexlegends) | 24.6K | 80.54% ±1.48 | +2.3σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/apexlegends?window=all) | 24.6K | 80.54% ±1.48 | +2.3σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 24.6K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AK-47 \| Aphrodite (Field-Tested) weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aphrodite-field-tested) | 1 in 498 | $13.61 | 5.2% | 44 | 49.4 | 0.89× |
| [SG 553 \| Colony IV (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-colony-iv-field-tested) | 1 in 492 | $8.94 | 3.5% | 23 | 50.0 | 0.46× |
| [FAMAS \| Eye of Athena (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-eye-of-athena-field-tested) | 1 in 459 | $5.13 | 2.1% | 59 | 53.6 | 1.10× |
| [M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-tooth-fairy-field-tested) | 1 in 393 | $3.53 | 1.7% | 55 | 62.6 | 0.88× |
| [AUG \| Random Access (Well-Worn) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-random-access-well-worn) | 1 in 86 | $1.32 | 2.9% | 22 | 284.9 | 0.08× |
| [M4A4 \| Turbine (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-turbine-field-tested) | 1 in 49 | $1.05 | 4.1% | 415 | 502.3 | 0.83× |
| [FAMAS \| Neural Net (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-neural-net-field-tested) | 1 in 29 | $0.84 | 5.6% | 802 | 854.2 | 0.94× |
| [Glock-18 \| Trace Lock (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-trace-lock-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $0.80 | 6.0% | 729 | 968.7 | 0.75× |
| [M4A4 \| Sheet Lightning (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-sheet-lightning-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $0.62 | 8.3% | 1,717 | 1718.9 | 1.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Glockingbird (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-glockingbird-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $0.55 | 9.8% | 2,157 | 2294.4 | 0.94× |
| [P250 \| Inferno (Field-Tested) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-inferno-field-tested) | 10.7% | $0.51 | 10.5% | 3,004 | 2642.8 | 1.14× |
| [M4A1-S \| Nitro (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nitro-field-tested) | 16.5% | $0.40 | 12.7% | 4,703 | 4064.0 | 1.16× |
| [USP-S \| 27 (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-27-minimal-wear) | 20.7% | $0.34 | 13.6% | 189 | 5081.5 | 0.04× |
| [P250 \| Valence (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-valence-field-tested) | 24.3% | $0.30 | 14.0% | 794 | 5976.5 | 0.13× |

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgo-net:pf_case_ranges`, 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgo-net&case=apexlegends)

[Glock-18 | Glockingbird (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-glockingbird-field-tested) [Mr\_KoT](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Mr_KoT) $0.67 $0.56 0.84x 2026-11-11 19:12 UTC

[Glock-18 | Glockingbird (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-glockingbird-field-tested) [HASTLL](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/HASTLL) $0.67 $0.56 0.84x 2026-11-11 19:11 UTC

[USP-S | 27 (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-27-minimal-wear) [svyatoi xram](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/svyatoi%20xram) $0.67 $0.28 0.43x 2026-11-11 19:10 UTC

[USP-S | 27 (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-27-minimal-wear) [СЕЛИКОНОВАЯ ЗИНА](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%D0%A1%D0%95%D0%9B%D0%98%D0%9A%D0%9E%D0%9D%D0%9E%D0%92%D0%90%D0%AF%20%D0%97%D0%98%D0%9D%D0%90) $0.67 $0.28 0.43x 2026-11-11 19:10 UTC

[P250 | Inferno (Field-Tested) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-inferno-field-tested) [СЕЛИКОНОВАЯ ЗИНА](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%D0%A1%D0%95%D0%9B%D0%98%D0%9A%D0%9E%D0%9D%D0%9E%D0%92%D0%90%D0%AF%20%D0%97%D0%98%D0%9D%D0%90) $0.67 $0.50 0.75x 2026-11-11 19:10 UTC

[M4A4 | Sheet Lightning (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-sheet-lightning-field-tested) [СЕЛИКОНОВАЯ ЗИНА](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%D0%A1%D0%95%D0%9B%D0%98%D0%9A%D0%9E%D0%9D%D0%9E%D0%92%D0%90%D0%AF%20%D0%97%D0%98%D0%9D%D0%90) $0.67 $0.62 0.93x 2026-11-11 19:10 UTC

[P250 | Inferno (Field-Tested) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-inferno-field-tested) [KaiNe](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/KaiNe) $0.67 $0.50 0.75x 2026-11-11 19:09 UTC

[P250 | Valence (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-valence-field-tested) [m1kxi69](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/m1kxi69) $0.67 $0.30 0.44x 2026-11-11 19:08 UTC

[P250 | Valence (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-valence-field-tested) [fox1246579023 GGDROP](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/fox1246579023%20GGDROP) $0.67 $0.30 0.44x 2026-11-11 19:06 UTC

[Glock-18 | Glockingbird (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-glockingbird-field-tested) [☠BRI☠](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%E2%98%A0BRI%E2%98%A0) $0.67 $0.56 0.84x 2026-11-11 19:05 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC | $0.67 | 78.04% | 14 |
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $0.67 | 77.86% | 14 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $0.67 | 77.61% | 14 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $0.67 | 77.66% | 14 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $0.67 | 77.90% | 14 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $0.67 | 78.17% | 14 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $0.67 | 78.26% | 14 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $0.67 | 78.27% | 14 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $0.67 | 78.36% | 14 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $0.67 | 78.30% | 14 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $0.67 | 78.94% | 14 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $0.67 | 78.83% | 14 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $0.67 | 78.82% | 14 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $0.67 | 78.76% | 13 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $0.67 | 78.76% | 13 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $0.67 | 78.71% | 13 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $0.67 | 78.65% | 13 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $0.67 | 78.68% | 13 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $0.67 | 78.78% | 13 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $0.67 | 78.71% | 13 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $0.67 | 78.79% | 13 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $0.67 | 78.69% | 13 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $0.67 | 78.82% | 13 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $0.67 | 79.18% | 13 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $0.67 | 79.16% | 13 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $0.67 | 79.18% | 13 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $0.67 | 78.85% | 13 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $0.67 | 78.79% | 13 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $0.67 | 78.97% | 13 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $0.67 | 78.94% | 13 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed #eb4b4b 0.2% classified 0.4% Legendary 0.3% Restricted 11.9% violet 2.0% restricted 20.0% #8847ff 20.2% blue 44.9% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 78.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $78.04 on average: an expected loss of $21.96 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt