--- title: "Assault case on csgo.net: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Assault ($26.99) on csgo.net, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 76.83% from 5 items with odds, observed 342.17% over 4 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/assault rendered: 2026-11-11T15:02Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) / [Assault](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/assault) # [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) · Assault A case on csgo.net (Collection), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/assault?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/assault?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/assault) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/assault?window=all) Price · $26.99 Advertised RTP · 76.83% · EV $20.74 from 5 items Observed RTP, 30d · 342.17% · 4 openings, odds method Variance · 0.6× · of price², per opening Tail share · 100.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 85.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 4 openings · below min 30 days · 4 openings · below min since tracking started · 4 openings · below min 77.0% 253.7% 430.5% **Small sample.** 4 openings and 2.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/assault?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/assault?window=7d) | 4 | 342.17% ±87.7 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/assault) | 4 | 342.17% ±87.7 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/assault?window=all) | 4 | 342.17% ±87.7 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 5 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Glock-18 \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 43,391 | $1,141 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Negev \| Anodized Navy (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-anodized-navy-factory-new) | 1 in 806 | $278 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [MP9 \| Bulldozer (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-bulldozer-field-tested) | 1 in 30 | $89.46 | 14.4% | 4 | 0.1 | — | | [Five-SeveN \| Candy Apple (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-candy-apple-minimal-wear) | 11.5% | $56.07 | 31.1% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [SG 553 \| Tornado (Field-Tested) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-tornado-field-tested) | 85.0% | $12.85 | 52.7% | 0 | 3.4 | 0.00× | Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgo-net:pf_case_ranges`, 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgo-net&case=assault) [MP9 | Bulldozer (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-bulldozer-field-tested) [g0\_0se](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/g0_0se) $26.99 $91.10 3.38x 2026-11-09 07:59 UTC [MP9 | Bulldozer (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-bulldozer-field-tested) [g0\_0se](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/g0_0se) $26.99 $91.10 3.38x 2026-11-09 07:59 UTC [MP9 | Bulldozer (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-bulldozer-field-tested) [k2](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/k2) $26.99 $94.57 3.50x 2026-11-06 21:33 UTC [MP9 | Bulldozer (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-bulldozer-field-tested) [g0\_0se](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/g0_0se) $26.99 $92.64 3.43x 2026-11-05 21:54 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC | $26.99 | 76.83% | 5 | | 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $26.99 | 76.62% | 5 | | 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $26.99 | 76.46% | 5 | | 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $26.99 | 76.44% | 5 | | 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $26.99 | 76.74% | 5 | | 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $26.99 | 77.05% | 5 | | 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $26.99 | 77.08% | 5 | | 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $26.99 | 77.04% | 5 | | 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $26.99 | 77.12% | 5 | | 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $26.99 | 77.18% | 5 | | 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $26.99 | 77.61% | 5 | | 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $26.99 | 77.59% | 5 | | 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $26.99 | 77.58% | 5 | | 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $26.99 | 77.60% | 6 | | 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $26.99 | 77.60% | 6 | | 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $26.99 | 77.60% | 5 | | 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $26.99 | 77.61% | 6 | | 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $26.99 | 77.60% | 6 | | 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $26.99 | 77.59% | 6 | | 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $26.99 | 77.61% | 6 | | 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $26.99 | 77.62% | 6 | | 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $26.99 | 77.54% | 6 | | 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $26.99 | 77.66% | 6 | | 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $26.99 | 78.01% | 6 | | 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $26.99 | 78.03% | 6 | | 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $26.99 | 77.93% | 6 | | 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $26.99 | 77.63% | 6 | | 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $26.99 | 77.72% | 6 | | 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $26.99 | 77.70% | 6 | | 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $26.99 | 77.70% | 5 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed restricted 3.3% #4b69ff 0.1% industrial 11.5% Common 85.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 76.8% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $76.83 on average: an expected loss of $23.17 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt