---
title: "Aston Martin DB12 case on csgo.net: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Aston Martin DB12 ($1,199.00) on csgo.net, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 70.33% from 14 items with odds, observed 79.61% over 64 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/astonmartin
rendered: 2026-11-11T18:52Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) / [Aston Martin DB12](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/astonmartin)

# [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) · Aston Martin DB12

A case on csgo.net (Ultra), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/astonmartin?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/astonmartin?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/astonmartin) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/astonmartin?window=all)

Price · $1,199.00

Advertised RTP · 70.33% · EV $843.25 from 14 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 79.61% · 64 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.2× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 38.5% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 86.7% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 1 openings · below min

7 days · 49 openings · below min

30 days · 64 openings · below min

since tracking started · 64 openings · below min

-0.5% 56.8% 114.0%

**Small sample.** 64 openings and 24.5 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/astonmartin?window=24h) | 1 | 35.51% ±78.0 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/astonmartin?window=7d) | 49 | 79.69% ±11.9 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/astonmartin) | 64 | 79.61% ±10.4 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/astonmartin?window=all) | 64 | 79.61% ±10.4 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 64 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-battle-scarred) | 1 in 202 | $3,902 | 2.3% | 3 | 0.3 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Knight (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-knight-factory-new) | 1 in 89 | $2,852 | 3.8% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Hedge Maze (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-hedge-maze-battle-scarred) | 1 in 35 | $1,927 | 6.5% | 0 | 1.8 | 0.00× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 24 | $1,586 | 7.9% | 4 | 2.7 | 1.48× |
| [★ Karambit \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $1,508 | 8.3% | 3 | 3.0 | 1.02× |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $1,038 | 9.7% | 6 | 5.0 | 1.19× |
| [M4A1-S \| Imminent Danger (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-imminent-danger-minimal-wear) | 1 in 12 | $1,015 | 9.7% | 7 | 5.2 | 1.36× |
| [AK-47 \| Hydroponic (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-hydroponic-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $867 | 9.5% | 6 | 5.9 | 1.01× |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Superconductor (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-superconductor-battle-scarred) | 10.2% | $729 | 8.8% | 3 | 6.5 | 0.46× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Blue Steel (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-blue-steel-well-worn) | 10.4% | $685 | 8.4% | 4 | 6.7 | 0.60× |
| [AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-field-tested) | 10.6% | $639 | 8.0% | 7 | 6.8 | 1.04× |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Emerald Web (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-emerald-web-well-worn) | 10.6% | $584 | 7.4% | 2 | 6.8 | 0.29× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 10.0% | $428 | 5.1% | 4 | 6.4 | 0.62× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-boreal-forest-field-tested) | 1 in 10 | $398 | 4.6% | 11 | 6.2 | 1.77× |

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgo-net:pf_case_ranges`, 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-battle-scarred) [DaniDropper](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/DaniDropper) $1,199 $3,954 3.30x 2026-11-03 17:42 UTC

[AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-battle-scarred) [rina](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/rina) $1,199 $3,943 3.29x 2026-11-06 10:06 UTC

[AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-battle-scarred) [Farga](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Farga) $1,199 $3,903 3.26x 2026-11-10 11:08 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new) [rina](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/rina) $1,199 $1,699 1.42x 2026-11-06 08:46 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new) [DaniDropper](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/DaniDropper) $1,199 $1,696 1.41x 2026-11-03 17:42 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new) [rina](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/rina) $1,199 $1,626 1.36x 2026-11-06 10:07 UTC

[★ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-gamma-doppler-factory-new) [IGROGAME](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/IGROGAME) $1,199 $1,576 1.31x 2026-11-05 22:51 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new) [q](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/q) $1,199 $1,554 1.30x 2026-11-09 16:10 UTC

[★ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-gamma-doppler-factory-new) [rina](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/rina) $1,199 $1,490 1.24x 2026-11-06 10:05 UTC

[★ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-gamma-doppler-factory-new) [IGROGAME](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/IGROGAME) $1,199 $1,483 1.24x 2026-11-08 22:17 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgo-net&case=astonmartin)

[★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new) [MPC TURN OFF CAPS](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/MPC%20TURN%20OFF%20CAPS) $1,199 $426 0.36x 2026-11-11 01:48 UTC

[AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-battle-scarred) [Farga](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Farga) $1,199 $3,903 3.26x 2026-11-10 11:08 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new) [q](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/q) $1,199 $1,554 1.30x 2026-11-09 16:10 UTC

[★ Sport Gloves | Superconductor (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-superconductor-battle-scarred) [q](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/q) $1,199 $743 0.62x 2026-11-09 16:09 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-boreal-forest-field-tested) [q](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/q) $1,199 $399 0.33x 2026-11-09 16:09 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-boreal-forest-field-tested) [грейс\_лох\_2003](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%D0%B3%D1%80%D0%B5%D0%B9%D1%81_%D0%BB%D0%BE%D1%85_2003) $1,199 $400 0.33x 2026-11-09 15:46 UTC

[AK-47 | Hydroponic (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-hydroponic-field-tested) [IGROGAME](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/IGROGAME) $1,199 $875 0.73x 2026-11-08 22:17 UTC

[M4A1-S | Imminent Danger (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-imminent-danger-minimal-wear) [IGROGAME](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/IGROGAME) $1,199 $839 0.70x 2026-11-08 22:17 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new) [IGROGAME](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/IGROGAME) $1,199 $437 0.36x 2026-11-08 22:17 UTC

[★ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-gamma-doppler-factory-new) [IGROGAME](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/IGROGAME) $1,199 $1,483 1.24x 2026-11-08 22:17 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC | $1,199 | 70.33% | 14 |
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $1,199 | 70.15% | 14 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $1,199 | 69.99% | 14 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $1,199 | 69.97% | 14 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $1,199 | 70.24% | 14 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $1,199 | 70.55% | 14 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $1,199 | 70.56% | 14 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $1,199 | 70.54% | 14 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $1,199 | 70.60% | 14 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $1,199 | 70.66% | 14 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $1,199 | 71.06% | 14 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $1,199 | 71.03% | 14 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $1,199 | 71.03% | 14 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $1,199 | 71.05% | 14 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $1,199 | 71.05% | 14 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $1,199 | 71.05% | 14 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $1,199 | 71.06% | 14 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $1,199 | 71.03% | 14 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $1,199 | 71.04% | 14 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $1,199 | 71.05% | 14 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $1,199 | 71.05% | 14 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $1,199 | 70.99% | 14 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $1,199 | 71.10% | 14 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $1,199 | 71.43% | 14 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $1,199 | 71.44% | 14 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $1,199 | 71.35% | 14 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $1,199 | 71.06% | 14 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $1,199 | 71.15% | 14 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $1,199 | 71.14% | 14 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $1,199 | 71.15% | 14 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 39.2% classified 10.4% extraordinary 23.7% gold 14.2% #ffd700 12.5% best hit $3,954 (3.30x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 70.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $70.33 on average: an expected loss of $29.67 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt