---
title: "Aston Martin case on csgo.net: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Aston Martin ($1.39) on csgo.net, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 75.95% from 30 items with odds, observed 76.24% over 5,036 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/astonmartinf1
rendered: 2026-11-11T19:50Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) / [Aston Martin](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/astonmartinf1)

# [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) · Aston Martin

A case on csgo.net (Blogger), first seen 8 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/astonmartinf1?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/astonmartinf1?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/astonmartinf1) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/astonmartinf1?window=all)

Price · $1.39

Advertised RTP · 75.95% · EV $1.06 from 30 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 76.24% · 5,036 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.5× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 29.4% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 88.7% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 77.52% ±3.82 1,278 openings

7 days · 76.24% ±1.92 5,036 openings

30 days · 76.24% ±1.92 5,036 openings

since tracking started · 76.24% ±1.92 5,036 openings

73.0% 77.5% 82.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/astonmartinf1?window=24h) | 1,278 | 77.52% ±3.82 | +0.9σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/astonmartinf1?window=7d) | 5,036 | 76.24% ±1.92 | +0.1σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/astonmartinf1) | 5,036 | 76.24% ±1.92 | +0.1σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/astonmartinf1?window=all) | 5,036 | 76.24% ±1.92 | +0.1σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 30 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5,579 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aquamarine-revenge-field-tested) | 1 in 9,289 | $35.37 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [M4A4 \| The Battlestar (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-battlestar-field-tested) | 1 in 8,863 | $29.76 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [SCAR-20 \| Emerald (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-emerald-factory-new) | 1 in 8,008 | $23.86 | 0.3% | 1 | 0.7 | — |
| [USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-field-tested) | 1 in 6,781 | $19.22 | 0.3% | 2 | 0.8 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Green Laminate (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-green-laminate-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,483 | $15.98 | 0.3% | 0 | 1.0 | 0.00× |
| [AUG \| Fleet Flock (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-fleet-flock-field-tested) | 1 in 3,553 | $12.26 | 0.3% | 2 | 1.6 | 1.27× |
| [Galil AR \| Eco (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-eco-field-tested) | 1 in 3,329 | $11.85 | 0.3% | 0 | 1.7 | 0.00× |
| [MP7 \| Nemesis (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-nemesis-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,153 | $9.69 | 0.4% | 3 | 2.6 | 1.16× |
| [SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-big-iron-field-tested) | 1 in 1,547 | $8.44 | 0.5% | 8 | 3.6 | 2.22× |
| [M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-well-worn) | 1 in 744 | $6.37 | 0.8% | 0 | 7.5 | 0.00× |
| [MP9 \| Hydra (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hydra-field-tested) | 1 in 677 | $6.15 | 0.9% | 8 | 8.2 | 0.97× |
| [AWP \| Green Energy (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-green-energy-field-tested) | 1 in 589 | $5.84 | 0.9% | 7 | 9.5 | 0.74× |
| [MP5-SD \| Phosphor (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-phosphor-field-tested) | 1 in 226 | $4.11 | 1.7% | 20 | 24.6 | 0.81× |
| [AUG \| Stymphalian (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-stymphalian-minimal-wear) | 1 in 172 | $3.71 | 2.0% | 15 | 32.4 | 0.46× |
| [M4A1-S \| Flashback (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-flashback-well-worn) | 1 in 101 | $3.02 | 2.8% | 43 | 55.2 | 0.78× |
| [MAC-10 \| Malachite (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-malachite-minimal-wear) | 1 in 97 | $2.97 | 2.9% | 11 | 57.6 | 0.19× |
| [Charm \| Lil' Eco charm · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-eco) | 1 in 68 | $2.59 | 3.6% | 71 | 81.5 | 0.87× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Serenity (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-serenity-field-tested) | 1 in 39 | $2.02 | 4.9% | 67 | 143.3 | 0.47× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Embargo (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-embargo-field-tested) | 1 in 28 | $1.73 | 5.8% | 114 | 197.4 | 0.58× |
| [P250 \| Wingshot (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-wingshot-field-tested) | 1 in 18 | $1.32 | 7.0% | 260 | 310.9 | 0.84× |
| [UMP-45 \| Scaffold (Field-Tested) weapon · 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-scaffold-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $1.25 | 7.1% | 284 | 335.5 | 0.85× |
| [AWP \| Pit Viper (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pit-viper-minimal-wear) | 1 in 15 | $1.18 | 7.3% | 84 | 364.5 | 0.23× |
| [Tec-9 \| Avalanche (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-avalanche-well-worn) | 1 in 15 | $1.13 | 7.3% | 363 | 381.3 | 0.95× |
| [M4A1-S \| Electrum (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-electrum-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $1.10 | 7.4% | 381 | 394.1 | 0.97× |
| [MP7 \| Powercore (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-powercore-field-tested) | 1 in 12 | $0.87 | 7.1% | 429 | 482.3 | 0.89× |
| [G3SG1 \| High Seas (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-high-seas-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $0.70 | 6.3% | 490 | 530.9 | 0.92× |
| [M4A1-S \| Emphorosaur-S (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-emphorosaur-s-field-tested) | 1 in 10 | $0.64 | 5.9% | 59 | 538.9 | 0.11× |
| [Nova \| Toy Soldier (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-toy-soldier-well-worn) | 1 in 10 | $0.58 | 5.3% | 502 | 539.8 | 0.93× |
| [Glock-18 \| Glockingbird (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-glockingbird-field-tested) | 1 in 10 | $0.55 | 5.0% | 507 | 536.3 | 0.95× |
| [Tec-9 \| Bamboozle (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-bamboozle-field-tested) | 1 in 10 | $0.53 | 4.8% | 513 | 534.0 | 0.96× |

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgo-net:pf_case_ranges`, 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgo-net&case=astonmartinf1)

[Nova | Toy Soldier (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-toy-soldier-well-worn) [Nu3x](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Nu3x) $1.39 $0.60 0.43x 2026-11-11 19:43 UTC

[AWP | Pit Viper (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pit-viper-minimal-wear) [TanZero](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/TanZero) $1.39 $1.16 0.83x 2026-11-11 19:43 UTC

[MP7 | Powercore (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-powercore-field-tested) [TanZero](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/TanZero) $1.39 $0.87 0.63x 2026-11-11 19:43 UTC

[Nova | Toy Soldier (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-toy-soldier-well-worn) [TanZero](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/TanZero) $1.39 $0.60 0.43x 2026-11-11 19:43 UTC

[Glock-18 | Glockingbird (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-glockingbird-field-tested) [Krogen](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Krogen) $1.39 $0.56 0.40x 2026-11-11 19:42 UTC

[Glock-18 | Glockingbird (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-glockingbird-field-tested) [|||RuDENXY](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%7C%7C%7CRuDENXY) $1.39 $0.56 0.40x 2026-11-11 19:42 UTC

[G3SG1 | High Seas (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-high-seas-field-tested) [R34](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/R34) $1.39 $0.70 0.50x 2026-11-11 19:40 UTC

[Nova | Toy Soldier (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-toy-soldier-well-worn) [Пиписька](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%D0%9F%D0%B8%D0%BF%D0%B8%D1%81%D1%8C%D0%BA%D0%B0) $1.39 $0.60 0.43x 2026-11-11 19:40 UTC

[Glock-18 | Glockingbird (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-glockingbird-field-tested) [Танкист](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%D0%A2%D0%B0%D0%BD%D0%BA%D0%B8%D1%81%D1%82) $1.39 $0.56 0.40x 2026-11-11 19:39 UTC

[UMP-45 | Scaffold (Field-Tested) weapon · 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-scaffold-field-tested) [Kawazaki](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Kawazaki) $1.39 $1.25 0.90x 2026-11-11 19:36 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC | $1.39 | 75.95% | 30 |
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $1.39 | 75.73% | 30 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $1.39 | 75.62% | 30 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $1.39 | 75.50% | 30 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $1.39 | 75.78% | 29 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $1.39 | 76.23% | 29 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $1.39 | 76.18% | 29 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $1.39 | 76.18% | 29 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $1.39 | 76.27% | 29 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $1.39 | 76.39% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $1.39 | 76.79% | 29 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $1.39 | 76.66% | 29 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $1.39 | 76.68% | 29 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $1.39 | 76.79% | 29 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed 3 6.0% covert 0.0% restricted 49.3% classified 0.1% blue 0.0% #d32ee6 0.7% pink 0.3% #d32ce6 1.6% Legendary 0.4% #8847ff 17.7% Mythical 23.9% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 76.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $75.95 on average: an expected loss of $24.05 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt