--- title: "AUG case on csgo.net: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "AUG ($2.19) on csgo.net, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 62.36% from 30 items with odds, observed 68.47% over 68 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/aug rendered: 2026-11-11T13:24Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) / [AUG](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/aug) # [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) · AUG A case on csgo.net, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/aug?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/aug?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/aug) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/aug?window=all) Price · $2.19 Advertised RTP · 62.36% · EV $1.37 from 30 items Observed RTP, 30d · 68.47% · 68 openings, odds method Variance · 0.5× · of price², per opening Tail share · 32.7% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 93.9% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 1 openings · below min 7 days · 46 openings · below min 30 days · 68 openings · below min since tracking started · 68 openings · below min -0.5% 98.8% 198.0% **Small sample.** 68 openings and 22.8 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/aug?window=24h) | 1 | 52.05% ±145.1 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/aug?window=7d) | 46 | 66.32% ±22.9 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/aug) | 68 | 68.47% ±19.0 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/aug?window=all) | 68 | 68.47% ±19.0 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 30 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 68 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AUG \| Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-hot-rod-factory-new) | 1 in 199,504 | $357 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AUG \| Akihabara Accept (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-akihabara-accept-well-worn) | 1 in 199,403 | $335 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AUG \| Midnight Lily (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-midnight-lily-minimal-wear) | 1 in 199,376 | $330 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AUG \| Copperhead (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-copperhead-field-tested) | 1 in 173,164 | $89.96 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AUG \| Chameleon (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-chameleon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 159,998 | $76.70 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AUG \| Lil' Pig (Field-Tested) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-lil-pig-field-tested) | 1 in 15,348 | $21.05 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AUG \| Anodized Navy (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-anodized-navy-factory-new) | 1 in 15,075 | $20.92 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AUG \| Sand Storm (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-sand-storm-field-tested) | 1 in 9,157 | $17.52 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AUG \| Fleet Flock (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-fleet-flock-field-tested) | 1 in 2,987 | $11.90 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AUG \| Syd Mead (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-syd-mead-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,584 | $11.32 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AUG \| Wings (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-wings-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,956 | $10.29 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AUG \| Bengal Tiger (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-bengal-tiger-field-tested) | 1 in 1,277 | $8.90 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [AUG \| Carved Jade (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-carved-jade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,175 | $8.65 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [AUG \| Momentum (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-momentum-field-tested) | 1 in 311 | $5.46 | 1.3% | 2 | 0.2 | — | | [AUG \| Death by Puppy (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-death-by-puppy-field-tested) | 1 in 152 | $4.23 | 2.0% | 2 | 0.4 | — | | [AUG \| Torque (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-torque-field-tested) | 1 in 142 | $4.12 | 2.1% | 1 | 0.5 | — | | [AUG \| Daedalus (Field-Tested) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-daedalus-field-tested) | 1 in 127 | $3.96 | 2.3% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [AUG \| Stymphalian (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-stymphalian-minimal-wear) | 1 in 107 | $3.72 | 2.6% | 0 | 0.6 | — | | [AUG \| Lapis Lazuli (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-lapis-lazuli-well-worn) | 1 in 42 | $2.58 | 4.5% | 0 | 1.6 | 0.00× | | [AUG \| Radiation Hazard (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-radiation-hazard-field-tested) | 1 in 27 | $2.13 | 5.8% | 0 | 2.5 | 0.00× | | [AUG \| Navy Murano (Field-Tested) weapon · #777777](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-navy-murano-field-tested) | 1 in 26 | $2.09 | 5.9% | 0 | 2.6 | 0.00× | | [AUG \| Amber Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-amber-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 16 | $1.66 | 7.4% | 1 | 4.1 | 0.24× | | [AUG \| Eye of Zapems (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-eye-of-zapems-field-tested) | 1 in 16 | $1.61 | 7.6% | 9 | 4.4 | 2.06× | | [AUG \| Colony (Field-Tested) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-colony-field-tested) | 1 in 15 | $1.60 | 7.7% | 0 | 4.4 | 0.00× | | [AUG \| Random Access (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-random-access-minimal-wear) | 1 in 15 | $1.56 | 7.8% | 3 | 4.7 | 0.64× | | [AUG \| Arctic Wolf (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-arctic-wolf-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $1.51 | 7.9% | 13 | 4.9 | 2.67× | | [AUG \| Aristocrat (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-aristocrat-field-tested) | 11.1% | $1.10 | 8.9% | 17 | 7.5 | 2.26× | | [AUG \| Surveillance (Minimal Wear) weapon · grey](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-surveillance-minimal-wear) | 13.8% | $0.82 | 8.3% | 0 | 9.4 | 0.00× | | [AUG \| Spalted Wood (Field-Tested) weapon · Industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-spalted-wood-field-tested) | 13.8% | $0.81 | 8.2% | 0 | 9.4 | 0.00× | | [AUG \| Plague (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-plague-field-tested) | 14.6% | $0.65 | 7.0% | 7 | 9.9 | 0.70× | Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgo-net:pf_case_ranges`, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgo-net&case=aug) [AUG | Aristocrat (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-aristocrat-field-tested) [Leto](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Leto) $2.19 $1.14 0.52x 2026-11-11 10:53 UTC [AUG | Plague (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-plague-field-tested) [✬ 𝓥𝓲𝓵y𝓪𝓶 ✬](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%E2%9C%AC%20%F0%9D%93%A5%F0%9D%93%B2%F0%9D%93%B5y%F0%9D%93%AA%F0%9D%93%B6%20%E2%9C%AC) $2.19 $0.66 0.30x 2026-11-10 12:49 UTC [AUG | Torque (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-torque-field-tested) [DеnDич](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/D%D0%B5nD%D0%B8%D1%87) $2.19 $4.22 1.93x 2026-11-10 09:57 UTC [AUG | Arctic Wolf (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-arctic-wolf-field-tested) [DеnDич](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/D%D0%B5nD%D0%B8%D1%87) $2.19 $1.53 0.70x 2026-11-10 09:56 UTC [AUG | Aristocrat (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-aristocrat-field-tested) [DеnDич](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/D%D0%B5nD%D0%B8%D1%87) $2.19 $1.15 0.53x 2026-11-10 09:56 UTC [AUG | Arctic Wolf (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-arctic-wolf-field-tested) [DеnDич](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/D%D0%B5nD%D0%B8%D1%87) $2.19 $1.53 0.70x 2026-11-10 09:30 UTC [AUG | Aristocrat (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-aristocrat-field-tested) [DеnDич](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/D%D0%B5nD%D0%B8%D1%87) $2.19 $1.15 0.53x 2026-11-10 09:30 UTC [AUG | Random Access (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-random-access-field-tested) [DеnDич](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/D%D0%B5nD%D0%B8%D1%87) $2.19 $1.22 0.56x 2026-11-10 09:29 UTC [AUG | Random Access (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-random-access-minimal-wear) [Piratka](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Piratka) $2.19 $1.50 0.68x 2026-11-09 15:51 UTC [AUG | Eye of Zapems (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-eye-of-zapems-field-tested) [Grad](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Grad) $2.19 $1.74 0.79x 2026-11-09 11:03 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $2.19 | 62.36% | 30 | | 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $2.19 | 62.23% | 30 | | 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $2.19 | 62.27% | 30 | | 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $2.19 | 62.43% | 30 | | 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $2.19 | 62.71% | 30 | | 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $2.19 | 62.70% | 30 | | 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $2.19 | 62.68% | 30 | | 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $2.19 | 62.66% | 30 | | 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $2.19 | 62.79% | 30 | | 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $2.19 | 63.21% | 30 | | 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $2.19 | 63.20% | 30 | | 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $2.19 | 63.10% | 30 | | 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $2.19 | 63.23% | 30 | | 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $2.19 | 63.21% | 30 | | 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $2.19 | 63.13% | 30 | | 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $2.19 | 63.20% | 30 | | 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $2.19 | 63.18% | 30 | | 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $2.19 | 63.22% | 30 | | 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $2.19 | 63.19% | 30 | | 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $2.19 | 63.17% | 30 | | 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $2.19 | 63.10% | 30 | | 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $2.19 | 63.15% | 30 | | 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $2.19 | 63.48% | 30 | | 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $2.19 | 63.54% | 30 | | 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $2.19 | 63.35% | 30 | | 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $2.19 | 63.16% | 30 | | 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $2.19 | 63.22% | 30 | | 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $2.19 | 63.17% | 30 | | 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $2.19 | 63.21% | 30 | | 4 Nov, 14:19 UTC | $2.19 | 63.21% | 30 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed mil spec 0.0% covert 0.0% restricted 18.2% milspec 0.1% uncommon 0.0% violet 8.8% #d32ee6 1.0% Legendary 0.0% classified 1.1% Rare 6.2% #8847ff 0.7% Common 7.3% industrial 3.7% #777777 3.9% Mythical 6.8% grey 13.8% Industrial 13.8% #4b69ff 14.6% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 62.4% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $62.36 on average: an expected loss of $37.64 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt