---
title: "AWP case on csgo.net: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "AWP ($6.79) on csgo.net, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 67.09% from 46 items with odds, observed 66.53% over 4,055 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/awp
rendered: 2026-11-11T16:49Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) / [AWP](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/awp)

# [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) · AWP

A case on csgo.net (Battle), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/awp?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/awp?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/awp) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/awp?window=all)

Price · $6.79

Advertised RTP · 67.09% · EV $4.56 from 46 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 66.53% · 4,055 openings, odds method

Variance · 13.2× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 29.8% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 87.8% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 68.24% ±39.53 325 openings

7 days · 67.18% ±12.19 3,096 openings

30 days · 66.53% ±11.11 4,055 openings

since tracking started · 66.53% ±11.11 4,055 openings

28.0% 68.3% 108.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/awp?window=24h) | 325 | 68.24% ±39.5 | +0.1σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/awp?window=7d) | 3,096 | 67.18% ±12.2 | −0.1σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/awp) | 4,055 | 66.53% ±11.1 | −0.2σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/awp?window=all) | 4,055 | 66.53% ±11.1 | −0.2σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 46 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,084 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AWP \| Gungnir (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-field-tested) | 1 in 199,997 | $7,601 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 199,996 | $6,731 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Medusa (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-minimal-wear) | 1 in 199,957 | $2,978 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| The Prince (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-minimal-wear) | 1 in 199,895 | $2,205 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Desert Hydra (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-desert-hydra-field-tested) | 1 in 198,673 | $946 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 193,083 | $540 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Lightning Strike (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 189,264 | $464 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Oni Taiji (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji-field-tested) | 1 in 117,436 | $200 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Silk Tiger (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-silk-tiger-field-tested) | 1 in 84,929 | $161 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Graphite (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-graphite-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50,385 | $124 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AWP \| Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-man-o-war-minimal-wear) | 1 in 43,503 | $116 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AWP \| CMYK (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-cmyk-field-tested) | 1 in 38,645 | $110 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AWP \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 25,749 | $94.01 | 0.1% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [AWP \| BOOM (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-boom-field-tested) | 1 in 19,930 | $85.34 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [AWP \| Snake Camo (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-snake-camo-field-tested) | 1 in 14,639 | $76.23 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [AWP \| Sovereign Flame (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-sovereign-flame-well-worn) | 1 in 14,090 | $75.18 | 0.1% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-minimal-wear) | 1 in 6,079 | $55.90 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-field-tested) | 1 in 4,753 | $51.34 | 0.2% | 1 | 0.9 | — |
| [AWP \| Queen's Gambit (Field-Tested) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-queens-gambit-field-tested) | 1 in 3,500 | $46.21 | 0.3% | 2 | 1.2 | 1.71× |
| [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,154 | $44.58 | 0.3% | 2 | 1.3 | 1.54× |
| [AWP \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,484 | $41.07 | 0.4% | 2 | 1.6 | 1.22× |
| [AWP \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 2,447 | $40.86 | 0.4% | 3 | 1.7 | 1.80× |
| [AWP \| Redline (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-redline-field-tested) | 1 in 1,803 | $36.79 | 0.4% | 1 | 2.3 | 0.44× |
| [AWP \| LongDog (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-longdog-well-worn) | 1 in 1,555 | $34.97 | 0.5% | 3 | 2.6 | 1.14× |
| [AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chrome-cannon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,196 | $31.94 | 0.6% | 4 | 3.4 | 1.17× |
| [AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chromatic-aberration-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,196 | $31.94 | 0.6% | 0 | 3.4 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Electric Hive (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-electric-hive-minimal-wear) | 1 in 811 | $27.93 | 0.8% | 9 | 5.0 | 1.79× |
| [AWP \| Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pink-ddpat-field-tested) | 1 in 410 | $22.01 | 1.2% | 10 | 10.0 | 1.00× |
| [AWP \| Crakow! (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-crakow-field-tested) | 1 in 321 | $20.17 | 1.4% | 12 | 12.7 | 0.94× |
| [AWP \| Corticera (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-corticera-minimal-wear) | 1 in 251 | $18.46 | 1.6% | 18 | 16.3 | 1.11× |
| [AWP \| Sun in Leo (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-sun-in-leo-field-tested) | 1 in 184 | $16.47 | 2.0% | 0 | 22.2 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Fever Dream (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 84 | $12.20 | 3.2% | 51 | 48.6 | 1.05× |
| [AWP \| Elite Build (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-elite-build-field-tested) | 1 in 47 | $9.51 | 4.5% | 113 | 87.8 | 1.29× |
| [AWP \| The End (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-end-field-tested) | 1 in 37 | $8.56 | 5.1% | 125 | 110.5 | 1.13× |
| [AWP \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-ice-coaled-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $6.97 | 6.2% | 167 | 164.6 | 1.01× |
| [AWP \| POP AWP (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pop-awp-minimal-wear) | 1 in 19 | $5.86 | 6.9% | 99 | 218.5 | 0.45× |
| [AWP \| Green Energy (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-green-energy-field-tested) | 1 in 19 | $5.84 | 6.9% | 241 | 219.2 | 1.10× |
| [AWP \| Exoskeleton (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-exoskeleton-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $4.79 | 7.3% | 226 | 282.3 | 0.80× |
| [AWP \| Mortis (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-mortis-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $4.21 | 7.2% | 1 | 318.3 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Black Box (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-black-box-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $4.17 | 7.2% | 253 | 320.9 | 0.79× |
| [AWP \| Atheris (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-atheris-field-tested) | 1 in 12 | $3.63 | 6.9% | 364 | 352.1 | 1.03× |
| [AWP \| Duality (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-duality-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $3.00 | 6.1% | 401 | 376.5 | 1.06× |
| [AWP \| Black Nile (Field-Tested) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-black-nile-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $2.61 | 5.3% | 131 | 380.5 | 0.34× |
| [AWP \| Worm God (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-worm-god-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11 | $2.34 | 4.7% | 369 | 375.9 | 0.98× |
| [AWP \| Exothermic (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-exothermic-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $2.32 | 4.7% | 426 | 375.3 | 1.14× |
| [AWP \| Phobos (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-phobos-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11 | $2.11 | 4.2% | 166 | 366.4 | 0.45× |

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgo-net:pf_case_ranges`, 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgo-net&case=awp)

[AWP | Duality (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-duality-field-tested) [Жека Тефтеля♿](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%D0%96%D0%B5%D0%BA%D0%B0%20%D0%A2%D0%B5%D1%84%D1%82%D0%B5%D0%BB%D1%8F%E2%99%BF) $6.79 $2.94 0.43x 2026-11-11 16:47 UTC

[AWP | Phobos (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-phobos-minimal-wear) [Жека Тефтеля♿](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%D0%96%D0%B5%D0%BA%D0%B0%20%D0%A2%D0%B5%D1%84%D1%82%D0%B5%D0%BB%D1%8F%E2%99%BF) $6.79 $2.17 0.32x 2026-11-11 16:44 UTC

[AWP | Mortis (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-mortis-minimal-wear) [null](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/null) $6.79 $4.22 0.62x 2026-11-11 16:03 UTC

[AWP | Duality (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-duality-field-tested) [Агат](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%D0%90%D0%B3%D0%B0%D1%82) $6.79 $3.00 0.44x 2026-11-11 15:54 UTC

[AWP | Green Energy (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-green-energy-field-tested) [Агат](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%D0%90%D0%B3%D0%B0%D1%82) $6.79 $5.88 0.87x 2026-11-11 15:52 UTC

[AWP | Exoskeleton (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-exoskeleton-field-tested) [Агат](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%D0%90%D0%B3%D0%B0%D1%82) $6.79 $4.94 0.73x 2026-11-11 15:52 UTC

[AWP | Exoskeleton (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-exoskeleton-field-tested) [f1rya](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/f1rya) $6.79 $4.94 0.73x 2026-11-11 15:51 UTC

[AWP | Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-printstream-field-tested) [Никита](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%D0%9D%D0%B8%D0%BA%D0%B8%D1%82%D0%B0) $6.79 $39.95 5.88x 2026-11-11 15:51 UTC

[AWP | Worm God (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-worm-god-minimal-wear) [f1rya](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/f1rya) $6.79 $2.40 0.35x 2026-11-11 15:50 UTC

[AWP | The End (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-end-field-tested) [f1rya](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/f1rya) $6.79 $8.56 1.26x 2026-11-11 15:50 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC | $6.79 | 67.09% | 46 |
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $6.79 | 66.89% | 46 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $6.79 | 66.75% | 46 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $6.79 | 66.73% | 47 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $6.79 | 66.99% | 46 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $6.79 | 67.31% | 46 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $6.79 | 67.30% | 46 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $6.79 | 67.28% | 46 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $6.79 | 67.34% | 46 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $6.79 | 67.39% | 46 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $6.79 | 67.79% | 46 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $6.79 | 67.75% | 46 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $6.79 | 67.75% | 46 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $6.79 | 67.76% | 46 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $6.79 | 67.77% | 45 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $6.79 | 67.76% | 46 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $6.79 | 67.79% | 45 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $6.79 | 67.74% | 45 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $6.79 | 67.74% | 45 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $6.79 | 67.77% | 45 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $6.79 | 67.76% | 45 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $6.79 | 67.71% | 45 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $6.79 | 67.77% | 45 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $6.79 | 68.11% | 45 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $6.79 | 68.12% | 45 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $6.79 | 68.07% | 45 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $6.79 | 67.77% | 45 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $6.79 | 67.85% | 45 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $6.79 | 67.87% | 46 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $6.79 | 67.87% | 46 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.2% classified 3.9% red 0.1% mil spec 0.0% rare 0.0% Ancient 0.1% restricted 32.8% pink 16.3% industrial 0.5% violet 5.3% #d32ce6 5.4% Legendary 7.8% Mil Spec Grade 9.3% #8847ff 18.2% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 67.1% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $67.09 on average: an expected loss of $32.91 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt